Afleveringen
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Naomi and Alex welcome author, columnist, and the ARD's London Correspondent, Annette Dittert, to discuss a very silly petition, Kemi Badenoch's now weekly strategic mistake, and Musk's obsession with the UK government. After which we take a dive into Angela Merkel's book, the upcoming German elections, and what the likely result might mean for Ukraine. Plus a very Wicked Wokey Dokey and Grin and Share It.
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Annette: “I think Musk wants to bring down the EU and, more generally, the rule of law of liberal democracy, because it stands in the way of his tech-bro thinking. He’s particularly focussed on Britain at the moment, because they have Farage as their way in.”
Alex: “Part of the strategic mistake of Badenoch calling for an election now is that it hands the advantage to Farage. In five years MAYBE people will have forgotten some of the stuff that went on under the Conservatives. In five months, they haven’t. If you put the choice back in front of them, they’ll try Option C. It is infuriatingly obvious.”
Annette: “Angela Merkel, who just published her book in Germany, was giving numerous interviews and was asked: What happened with this coalition? And she just looked at the interviewer and said: ‘Well. Men.’”
Naomi: “What do thousands of people in Ongar, Clacton, Richmond, Cambodia, Laos, Kazakhstan, Chad, Venezuela, and even nine people in the Antarctic and five in Vatican City share with the world’s richest man? That’s right - none of them understand how elections work.”
Annette: “There is a huge anxiety in Germany already [about Russia]. It feels completely different when you’re in Berlin or Warsaw to when you’re in London. It’s irrational, of course, but when I am in London, I feel a little further away.”
GRIN AND SHARE IT
A video of the new Renfrew Bridge!
CALLS TO ACTION LINKS:
Sign the petition to hold a referendum on Proportional Representation.
Latest news from the European Network Against Racism.
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With Naomi Smith, Alex Andreou and Kenny Campbell – in cahoots with Sandstone Global.
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In the July election, a victorious Labour saw its red wall support slump to the lowest level in at least 40 years.
Polling guru Peter Kellner joins Naomi Smith to discuss why, and to dive into his critique of Labour's 'red wall Brexit fallacy'.
He also explains why Labour desperately needs to get on the front foot when it comes to relations with Europe, and poses the question: does Rachel Reeves have the courage to do something popular?
As if that's not enough, there's insight on the farming row, Trump and immigration. Buckle up!
Show notes
Read Peter's superb Substack here
Get your Bluesky Quiet Riot starter pack here and, if you prefer the olden ways, email us at [email protected]. Our website lurks over at www.quietriotpod.com
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With Naomi Smith, Alex Andreou and Kenny Campbell, in cahoots with SandStone Global.
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Zijn er afleveringen die ontbreken?
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Naomi and Alex talk through developments in Ukraine and Gaza, and what they might mean for our security. And they also discuss the continuing fallout from the farmland inheritance tax changes - and the Liberal Democrats' revealing position on the issue.
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Naomi: "There is a vacuum. Scholz and Macron are in peril. The Democrats are licking their wounds in the States. And there is an opportunity for a leader who believes in the rule of law and liberal democracy, to strengthen international institutions and to show boldness and courage."
Alex: "The arguments against inheritance tax are all 'blue skies, and rolling hills, and stewards of the land'. I feel emotionally manipulated. And I think this shtick may wear very, very thin, very, very quickly. Eventually, you have to find a better argument than singing 'Jerusalem' over and over again."
Jonathan Freedland: Benjamin Netanyahu is a wanted man – and he has only himself to blame
Naomi Smith: Opportunity in misery: how Starmer can respond to Trump’s US victory
Clive Lewis's Bsky thread on missing Labour narrative
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With Naomi Smith, Alex Andreou and Kenny Campbell – in cahoots with Sandstone Global.
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Naomi and Alex welcome former UK Ambassador to the US, Sir Kim Darroch, whose dismissal Trump demanded in 2020, to the studio to talk through what's in store from a Trump second term. We also take a look at the farming protests and try a novel approach: to reach a balanced view based on the evidence. Plus regular features Grin And Share it and Troll With It.
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Kim: “Gary Cohn, who was Trump’s economic adviser in the White House [in 2017], tells the story of how, when crazy ideas came up from some of the real ideologue Trump supporters, on tariffs and things like that, he would get tipped off by a friend in the outer office, go in and steal them and bury them in the deepest cupboard.”
Kim: “If agencies receive instructions which they believe are mad or damaging to US security, they will resist. Trump had huge rows with the CIA and FBI in his first term. I think that pattern will continue, especially with Tulsi Gabbard in charge.”
Kim: “[The new UK-US Ambassador] will need to be ready for the 5AM twitter-storm. He will wake up reach for his phone and post anything that has caught his eye and there is no filter. It’s pure Trump. There’s nobody sitting there at five in the morning saying, Mr President you shouldn’t do that.”
Naomi: “Farmers have many reasons to feel angry and let down. Brexit has hurt them: lost EU subsidies, difficulty in hiring seasonal workers, the extra cost of importing goods or importing seed, chemicals, and other things they need, but also trade deals which put them at a competitive disadvantage.”
Alex: “We have become addicted to very cheap, low quality food. Good food costs money to produce. So, there is truth to the farmers’ core complaint which is that, on the whole, as a country, we don’t appreciate their work and the thing they produce sufficiently.”
Alex: “Farage has cost farmers more money through Brexit than any inheritance tax. Now he’s cosplaying in tweed from head to toe, marching alongside them. Tractors came to Whitehall in March, to protest the trade deals Badenoch signed. Now she’s making speeches and being applauded. How can I take them seriously? Where are their principles?”
GRIN AND SHARE IT
Reporting on the wider effects of Sadiq Khan's free school meals policy in the Mirror.
LINKS:
Tortoise Media's Peer Review.
The Poke's collection of responses to the 'woke sandwiches' story.
Dan Neidle's view of the inheritance tax changes for farms.
Richard Murphy's view of the inheritance tax changes for farms.
An archived version of the Together website (so you don't have to part with your data).
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With Naomi Smith, Alex Andreou and Kenny Campbell – in cahoots with Sandstone Global.
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Alex talks to special guest trade epxert David Henig about Trump's threatened tariff war - how likely is it, what would it mean for the world economy, and in which direction the UK should move to be best protected.
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“Most trade is not in finished products, but in components. This is really important in thinking about the effect of possible tariffs. At least 50% of US imports are things that will in turn form part of a finished American product or help to make it.”
“Trump’s plan for tariffs is good news if you’re a lobbyist working in DC, because everyone is going to be seeking exemptions for their inputs or tariffs on their rivals. This will become quite a bonanza in that way.”
“Look at the figures. 50% of our trade, broadly, is with the EU. The UK cannot afford to ignore that. But then again 15-20% of our trade is with the US. Again, we cannot ignore that. So, we have to duck and weave, but we have to do so within a very straightforward principle: Geography matters. That makes Europe more important than the US.”
“The UK needs a little bit of honesty, to say: If you put up barriers with your neighbours, you will suffer a little economically. Similarly, that we’re not going to have an all-singing-all-dancing trade deal with the US. Also, that the actions we are taking at the moment to improve the deal with the EU will not transform the UK economy. Then we can have an honest discussion.”
“Global Britain has failed. If the project of the last few Conservative administrations was to replace trade lost from the EU with trade around the world, that hasn’t happened. In fact trade is down both with the EU and with the rest of the world.”
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With Naomi Smith, Alex Andreou and Kenny Campbell – in cahoots with Sandstone Global.
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Naomi and Alex, wth special guest Arthur Snell, assess what Trump's picks reveal about his intentions for the next four years and how they might affect global security challenges, including in Ukraine, the Middle East, and Taiwan.
Oh, and it seems it's okay for the media to talk about the Brexit damage now.
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Find Arthur's "Behind The Lines" here.
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With Naomi Smith, Alex Andreou and Kenny Campbell – in cahoots with Sandstone Global.
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Accident stats are terrifying: UK accidental deaths exceed 20,000 a year and accidents (mostly at home) are the most common cause of preventable death among under-40s. And, since 2013, accidental deaths in the UK have risen by 50 per cent. You read that right.
What on earth is going on? Wasn't 'Elf 'n' Safety madness' supposed to put a stop to this?
Naomi Smith talks to someone who knows more than most about the topic. Dr James Broun is Research Manager for the Royal Society for the Prevention of Accidents (RoSPA), where Naomi is a non-exec director.
RoSPA is calling for a national accident prevention strategy from the Government, and says joined-up thinking across Govt departments (and a minister for accidents) could save the country a fortune, as well as saving lives.
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Show notes
Safer Lives, Stronger Nation: Read Rospa's new report, calling for a national accident prevention strategy, here.
Find us on Facebook and Twitter as @quietriotpod and on Bluesky. Click here for your Quiet Riot Bluesky Starter Pack. Email us at [email protected]. Or visit our website www.quietriotpod.com.
With Naomi Smith, Alex Andreou and Kenny Campbell – in cahoots with Sandstone Global.
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Naomi and Alex, with regular guest More in Common's Luke Tryl, discuss Lords reform, Kemi Badenoch's start, COP26, and the rise of the (very) long form bro-cast. Plus the return of regular features POLL THE OTHER ONE, WOKEY DOKEY, and GRIN AND SHARE IT. A packed show.
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Luke: “When it comes to climate change, Britain is not the US. When we asked recently: Would you like to see the UK move to net zero at the current pace, faster, or slower, 41% said at the current pace, 41% said faster, and only 18% said slower. There’s a real appetite to do this and the public are ahead of politicians in lots of ways.”
Naomi: “Political power is never something that should be inherited. We’d never accept a hereditary nurse or a hereditary lawyer. Why would we accept a hereditary legislator?”
Naomi: “I am genuinely embarrassed by our second chamber. They are too old, they are too rich, too bloated in number, too male, too white, and they are there far too much through patronage and far too over-representative of the Southeast of England - and, thanks to the bishops, representative of only one sect of one religion which should have no place in policy making.”
Alex: “Donald Trump is kind of the grandfather of those manosphere long form shows. If you look at his rallies, that's the format: that unscripted, three-hour, ‘I love the sound of my own voice’, part nonsense, part tangents, but always coming back to the talking points youtube show or podcast.”
GRIN AND SHARE IT
The Economist: Mega-polluter China believes it is a climate saviour
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With Naomi Smith, Alex Andreou and Kenny Campbell – in cahoots with Sandstone Global.
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Naomi and Alex, dig into the data underlying the US result, what a Trump term means for Ukraine, the discuss Kemi Badenoch's front bench choices, and the coming elections in Ireland and Germany.
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“There was something in a YouGov poll that really rang alarm bells. Young men aged 18 to 29, sixty-per-cent of them are thrilled or happy with Trump’s win. That really concerned me. What is it that these young men are seeing and why does it make them feel so happy?”
"The coming fight is reason against unreason. The dividing line is not your preference of economic policy or whether you want a big or small state. It is the line that separates easy solutions that appeal to people's ugliest side and reason, science, expertise, and facts."
“The West is supporting Ukraine because it is fighting. Ukraine is not fighting because the West is supporting it.”
"Mark Francois has been appointed Miniature of Defensiveness- no sorry, I misread that. Minister of Defence."
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With Naomi Smith, Alex Andreou and Kenny Campbell – in cahoots with Sandstone Global.
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Naomi and Alex, go over the US result, with a special focus on what it means for the UK and Europe, and what leassons we can learn from it. With two extraordinary guests: Former diplomat and UN Deputy Secretary General, Lord Mark Malloch Brown, and former Obama campaign staffer and CEO of 38 Degrees Matthew Mc Gregor.
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Mark: “There is, frankly, a class-versus-identity issue. Some latinos, for example, feel that they are entering the middle class and want their vote to be consistent with their life in the suburbs, membership of a country club, and resent Democrats who tend to lump them together by identity and assume that they want certain services or support from the state.”
Matthew: “Yes, economic issues were front and centre, but there are other issues in this election. For a lot of Americans, the impact of the roll back of reproductive rights, the fact that women are losing their lives because of it, was not a deal-breaker. And this is going to be an incredibly painful fact for people to absorb.”
Mark: “The person who lost this campaign was Joe Biden and those around him, who cynically kept him propped up long after he should have declared himself not a candidate, and prevented the primary process, in the white hot heat of which a candidate is toughened up.”
Matthew: “There is a real danger from this result for the UK, that the Labour Party, and progressives more generally, will suffer a crisis of confidence. In the current environment, caution is the riskier option. The gov’t needs to drive forward, probably even more boldly than Reeves set out in the Budget.”
Mark: “If Trump goes with these very high tariffs, he is not only going to throw the American economy into deep confusion, in the medium term, he is going to throw the global economy into a chaotic state. And anaemic growth is going to be even more anaemic.”
Matthew: “Feelings don’t care about your facts. Keir Starmer said something that really concerned me during the election campaign: ‘I believe in actions, not words.’ If you want to be a successful PM in the year 2024, you need both.”
LINKS:
You can join the fight with 38 Degrees here.
You can join the fight with Best for Britain here.
You can join the fight with Hope not Hate here.
You can find out about Open Society's work here.
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With Naomi Smith, Alex Andreou and Kenny Campbell – in cahoots with Sandstone Global.
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Alex Andreou talks to Rose Wang, BlueSky Chief Operations Officer in SanFrancisco - one of two women at the top of this social media startup. about the rollercoaster of the last few months, the coming election, and what is next for the platform.
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“It was happening in real time for all of us. I don’t think the team slept for 48 hours, trying to keep the service online, and I am proud to say we had no down time, despite the fact a couple of million Brazilians came on BlueSky over the course of two to three days.”
“This election is going to be a moment for our different platforms to show what we care about, what our values are. BlueSky welcomes political debate, unlike Threads which down-ranks political content. We are giving users the tools and authority to make their own decisions, rather than being a partisan platform that elevates one candidate over another, which is what’s happening on X.”
“This is exactly the world that we want to prevent. Overnight, X has become a platform with an opinion as to who should win the US presidential election. That’s pretty wild. It’s no longer a public square. It’s now a partisan walled garden. At BlueSky we hope to showcase the technology we need to build more of a democratic republic online.”
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With Naomi Smith, Alex Andreou and Kenny Campbell – in cahoots with Sandstone Global.
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Alex and Naomi discuss Kemi Badenoch's prospects and Rachel Reeves' budget, before an extended therapy session about the coming US Election. With star cameos from Salma Shah and Henry Hill.
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“Kemi Badenoch has been elected with only a third of MPs and just over a third of the membership behind her. In a party addicted to factional strife, is that enough support - especially for someone who plans to pick fights?"
"This was a Brexit Tax Budget. We are paying the price of Brexit, in no small part, through this budget. Brexit contributed to the stagnation of our economy and this budget is trying to rectify some of that. But because of the tightrope Labour is walking on Europe, they aren’t going to come out and say that.”
"We need to make psychological space for the possibility of a Kamala Harris victory, for for the possibility of a Trump victory, and for the possibility it might be so close, we are in limbo for ages. It is easier to prepare for all three in the abstract."
LINKS:
Here is the Cost of Brexit summary from Best for Britain.
Here is the breakdown of the process between election and inauguration.
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With Naomi Smith, Alex Andreou and Kenny Campbell – in cahoots with Sandstone Global.
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How is the new Labour government perceived in the EU? How much of a 'reset' is realistically achievable? What does the club we just left make of our slow change of heart? What does it want in return? And how much of a priority is our renegotiation in European capitals?
Alex spoke to Professor Jacob Öberg for a European perspective on our long journey to rejoining.
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“There is a feeling that Labour haven’t really decided what to do and where they want to go with [the UK-EU reset] - particularly in terms of things that the EU would request or require from the UK. Labour has been very hesitant to give any space to that. And in that situation no-one gives in and nothing happens.”
“All of these things, if we talk youth mobility, vet agreement, things like these, it is a big complicated negotiation and you need everyone on board - the EU Commission the UK negotiation team, everyone needs to be fully focussed on this. If you do this with your left hand you’re not going to get much done.”
“The framing of an alliance - primarily by Thatcher in her later, rather mad period - as something hostile, over there, to which one must go prepared to handbag other leaders in order to not be somehow exploited is one of the most wrong-headed and damaging political narratives of the last few decades.”
LINKS:
Jacob's brief piece on imporving the TCA is here.
Jacob's free book can be downloaded here.
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With Naomi Smith, Alex Andreou and Kenny Campbell – in cahoots with Sandstone Global.
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Naomi and Alex, go over every aspect of the Budget, including the undercurrent of misogyny in much of the commentary, with very special guest prominent ecocomist, professor, and former joint head of the Government's Economic Service, Vicky Pryce. As well as Wokey Dokey and Grin And Share It.
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Vicky: “In reality you can redefine [debt] any way you want, as long as the capital markets believe it is sustainable and you convince them it makes sense. How do you get markets to lend this to you? The good thing is that we are now talking about longer term assessments of what benefits to the economy particular spending might bring.”
Alex: “The last few weeks have been a parade of people saying: we need to invest much more in the country, but please not from my money. The chance [the gov’t is] taking is that people won’t mind paying more tax, provided they see an improvement in the public services they use.”
Naomi: "Is the Labour gov’t missing a trick by not going further and faster in liberalising our trade relationship with the EU?" Vicky: “Completely and utterly. The cost of bringing in the skilled people we need on complicated, costly visas, the extra bureaucracy, has been calculated by the Home Office to be nearly £40bn. Which is huge. It’s what Reeves just raised in taxes.”
LINKS:
On how the US avoided a recession in 2023, read here.
On how Germany just avoided a recession, read here.
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With Naomi Smith, Alex Andreou and Kenny Campbell – in cahoots with Sandstone Global.
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Naomi Smith chats to journalist Amanda Ferguson about a series of scandals which have rocked politics both north and south of the border. Sinn Féin were widely expected to win the next election. Is that still the case?
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LINKS:
You can link to Amanda and find her latest work here.
Brief explainer of why many think it will be an early election.
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With Naomi Smith, Alex Andreou and Kenny Campbell – in cahoots with Sandstone Global.
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Alex goes through the week's political events, and looks forward to next week, both here and across the Atlantic, with special guest Zoe Williams.
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Zoe: “I don’t want to get lectures from the right of manifesto promises, when the 2019 manifesto was insulting in its lack of detail. I mean what possible impact did ‘levelling up’ have? Does anyone even know what it meant? And yet lectures are what we’re going to get. And I don’t want to roll over to the idea that all politicians are the same - there is no conceivable comparison.”
Zoe: “Everything [about the coming Budget] is about ‘don’t expect too much; don’t think we can help’ and that just strikes me as an incredibly sad and dangerous place to start. If you’re swept in on a wind of change and hope and the first thing you say is: ‘abandon hope’.”
Alex: “Imagine living there. Imagine being a woman in America right now. Imagine being a muslim woman or a trans woman. This is existential stuff.”
Zoe: “I do think there’s a kind of misogynistic groupthink [in polling], which just doesn’t take the things that women take seriously, seriously.”
Alex: “What makes [the Republican attack on women’s reproductive rights] doubly frightening is that it doesn’t feel random. It’s strategic. Because if you buy into notions like the Great Replacement Theory, it follows - although rarely articulated - that you need white women to stay home and have lots of babies. And that doesn’t happen with their consent.”
LINKS:
Vanity Fair interview with Stuart Stevens.
ABC report of Musk's contact with Putin.
The Bulwark on Washington Post spiking its endorsement of Harris.
NPR on the LA Times pulling its endorsement of Harris.
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With Naomi Smith, Alex Andreou, and Kenny Campbell - in cahoots with Sandstone Global.
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American polls are pointing to a perilously close result in the looming presidential election but can they be trusted?
Naomi Smith talks with Luke Bailey, Head of Digital at inews.co.uk, to find out more about the strengths, weaknesses and sundry foibles of Stateside polling.
Discover how corporate group-think may play a role, find out all about Recall Weighting – and gasp as we reveal that even gambling markets are not the reliable indicators many thought.
It wouldn't be Quiet Riot without a dollop of positivity though, and Luke does offer some grains of hope to our nervous listeners. Grab them and cherish them, people.
Show notes
Read more of Luke's insight on US polling here
Follow him (and his Herculean profile photo) on Bluesky, where he is @lukebailey.bsky.social
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If email is your thang, we're at [email protected] and our website is an extremely predictable www.quietriotpod.com
Oh, we're a tiny team without the backing of media behemoths, so we will be eternally grateful if you support us in any way on Ko-fi – heartfelt thanks to all who have already chipped in.
Quiet Riot, in case you already forgot, is Alex Andreou, Naomi Smith and Kenny Campbell, in Cahoots with SandStone Global. Seeya.
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Naomi and Alex, with guest Salma Shah - a former No.10 advisor under Cameron - explore how mich of the Trump Campaign's complaint against Labour is real and how much is trolling. And then discuss the future of the Tory Party. Or lack thereof. And the most momentous by-election coming up (possibly). As well as Wokey Dokey and Grin And Share It.
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“It probably is a mountain out of a molehill. But it is a legitimate line of questioning for anyone, especially a journalist in this country, to ask: how much is the Labour party trying to associate itself with the Harris campaign, and is that wise on a diplomatic level?”
“It’s not just about Trump or Labour. It’s about the world being more difficult, about the way we perceive Western liberal democracies becoming fractured, the way we think about engagement with other states and politics internationally - all of that is fraying.”
“In the same way that previously the left had this identity crisis, the right is having its identity crisis, we’re all having one big identity crisis. Because what we’ve understood as left and right for the last 40 years is no longer true.”
“In 2019, Boris Johnson - like him or loathe him - did this amazing thing, where he stretched the Overton Window, beyond its natural conventions. But we always knew that elastic would snap back at some point and it snapped at the last election.”
“If Rishi Sunak does step down and that amazing gem-of-a-Tory-seat comes up, there will be a lot of people contesting it, but who wins that selection will be totemic about the future of the Conservatives. Are we looking back or are we looking forward?”
CALLS TO ACTION
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With Naomi Smith, Alex Andreou, and Kenny Campbell – in cahoots with Sandstone Global.
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Alex quizzes special guest, Emmy-award-winning Luke McGee, on how a referendum in a country like Moldova, interconnects with everything from EU immigration policy, to the war in Ukraine, the US election, and a secretive meeting - the first of its kind - between NATO and South Korea. A truly mind-bending episode.
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“Ultimately what you’re seeing is - I don’t like using the term “Axis of Evil”, I think “Axis of Autocracies” is the better way to think of it, Russia, Iran, China, and North Korea - what you’re probably seeing is these new alliances, these new dividing lines forming.”
“[The US Election] does feel like it’s a coin flip. Both sides now aren’t really campaigning to try and flip voters. What they’re trying to do is get voters who are perhaps uninspired by their campaign, but really hate their opponent to bother and turn out to vote.”
LINKS:
Luke in Prospect Magazine: To help itself, Europe must do more for Ukraine.
Luke in The New Statesman: Ursula von der Leyen has lost the Europhiles.
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With Naomi Smith, Alex Andreou, and Kenny Campbell – in cahoots with Sandstone Global.
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Naomi and Alex have their weekly debrief, talking through the Budget rumours, the Tory leadership election, and then a bit of a deep dive into US Election polling.
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LINKS:
Chaminda Jayanetti piece on Bloomberg: Tories Are Lost Because Their Ideology Failed.
Electoral Calculus Starmer v Badenoch/Jenrick MRP poll.
Five Thirty Eight's rating of US pollsters.
Find us on Facebook and Twitter as @quietriotpod or use our Starter Pack on Bluesky. Email us at [email protected]. Or visit our website www.quietriotpod.com.
IF YOU CAN AFFORD TO CONTRIBUTE, PLEASE DO. Click here to back Quiet Riot on Ko-fi.
With Naomi Smith, Alex Andreou, and Kenny Campbell – in cahoots with Sandstone Global.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices - Laat meer zien
