Afleveringen
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Mark Dubowitz, CEO of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, returns to School of War to discuss the newly released memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran. What does the deal actually say? What are its biggest strategic implications? And is it comparable to the JCPOA—or something worse?
01:19 - Paragraph 1: Lebanon and Hezbollah
09:45 - Paragraphs 2–3: Sovereignty and the 60-day clock
11:24 - Paragraph 4: Lifting the blockade
16:37 - Paragraph 5: The Strait of Hormuz
23:48 - Paragraph 6: A $300 billion reconstruction fund
33:49 - Paragraph 7: Ending all sanctions
35:43 - Paragraph 8: Nuclear weapons and enrichment
39:12 - Paragraph 9: Maintaining the status quo
40:44 - Paragraph 10: Oil waivers and sanctions relief
43:48 - Paragraph 11: Releasing frozen funds
46:56 - Paragraph 12: Monitoring compliance
47:52 - Paragraph 13: Negotiating the final deal
50:59 - Paragraph 14: A UN Security Council resolution
51:13 - Squandering battlefield leverage
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Eliot Cohen, Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies; professor emeritus at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, author of The Strategist: How to Think About War and Politics; and co-host of the Shield of the Republic podcast, joins School of War to discuss the recent agreement between the United States and Iran. Did the United States and Israel accomplish their objectives against Iran? What does the conflict reveal about the U.S. military's readiness for future wars? And did Trump negotiate from a position of strength, or squander one?
01:22 - Eliot Cohen on the war with Iran
03:34 - Judging Trump by outcomes
05:08 - A war 47 years in the making
06:45 - What we don't know about the air campaign
08:08 - Negotiating from strength?
09:10 - Trump's negotiating style
12:05 - Questions about America's conduct of the war
14:31 - The Strait of Hormuz becomes the objective
15:41 - Why the war ended when it did
17:25 - Trump and the nature of war
19:01 - Has Iran succeeded?
23:21 - The decline of the Iranian empire
28:09 - Why Trump got a bad deal
31:36 - Auditing the U.S. military
39:39 - Has warfare been transformed?
42:10 - What should America do next?
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Zijn er afleveringen die ontbreken?
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Arthur Herman, senior research fellow at the Civitas Institute at the University of Texas at Austin and author of Founder’s Fire: From 1776 to the Age of Trump, joins School of War to discuss how America’s Founding Fathers helped create a culture of innovation in technology, industry, and warfare. Who are the most important founders of the past and present? What lessons can they teach us about today’s revolution in warfare? And what makes American ingenuity so unique?
02:45 - Defining founders
10:56 - Technology at America's founding
13:49 - Alex Karp and the founder mindset
14:45 - The creation of Springfield Arsenal
15:40 - Thomas Jefferson and American weapons
19:10 - Today's revolution in warfare
20:53 - AI on the battlefield
21:49 - Why a strong economy matters
24:40 - China's defense industry
26:32 - American industrial policy
29:11 - Lessons from Ukraine
31:29 - Declining competition in weapons manufacturing
33:38 - The burden of weapons regulations
37:50 - Elon Musk's founder mentality
41:52 - The future of American ingenuity
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Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior director of Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ (FDD) Iran Program and a senior fellow specializing in Iranian security and political issues, returns to School of War to discuss the latest round of fighting between Israel and Iran. Why did this latest wave of Iranian missile attacks feel different? Why does a weakened Iran seem emboldened? Where is the regime most vulnerable? And will politics in Washington prevent the U.S. from doing what is necessary to stop it?
02:30 - Israel in Southern Lebanon
04:37 - Iran's Missile Barrage Against Israel
06:20 - FPV Drone Warfare in Lebanon
08:30 - A New Iranian Strategy?
12:16 - Cover for Terror Proxies
14:14 - The Danger of a Weakened Iran
17:44 - The Nazi Germany Comparison
21:00 - The Wehrmacht's Last Stand
22:07 - Iran's Reaction to Pressure
25:09 - Targets in Iran and Israel
30:15 - Where Is Iran Most Vulnerable?
31:47 - The Iran-Iraq War Analogy
32:44 - Exploiting Divisions in Iran
35:09 - Political Obstacles to Maximum Pressure
38:17 - Trump's Record on Iran Policy
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Anthony Vinci—co-founder and CEO of Vico, an AI company that empowers judgment and analysis in finance and national security, and author of The Fourth Intelligence Revolution—joins School of War to discuss the technological evolution of spycraft. How does an intelligence officer operate in a world of rapidly advancing technology? What happens when machines begin to assist, or even replace, human judgment? And are we being spied on constantly?
02:33 - The Job of an Intelligence Officer
03:43 - Technology and Intelligence Work
05:58 - Living Under Surveillance
07:43 - AI as an Intelligence Analyst
09:37 - The Origins of American Intelligence
10:15 - Who Was Wild Bill Donovan?
12:37 - The Modern Intelligence Community
14:25 - The Evolution of Spy Technology
16:39 - The Intelligence Gap Before 9/11
18:58 - A Mossad Chief's Critique
23:10 - The Fourth Intelligence Revolution
25:02 - AI and Autonomy
27:49 - Are We All Being Spied On?
30:05 - China's Political Warfare
34:00 - The COVID Intelligence Failure
39:59 - The Dangers of AI Language Models
48:37 - TikTok and Surveillance
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Rep. Michael Baumgartner, who represents Washington’s 5th Congressional District, joins the show from Singapore at the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue. What was the tone and significance of Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s speech? How are the Asian economies fairing in lieu of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz? And what is the future of the American-led order in East Asia?
03:07 - Tone of the Shangri-La Dialogue
05:30 - Asia and the Strait of Hormuz
09:35 - The UAE's Distance from Iran
11:47 - America's Role in Asian Security
13:06 - Asia's Reaction to Trump's China Summit
15:25 - The Diversity of Asia
16:54 - Pete Hegseth's Speech
19:07 - The CCP's Control of China
20:59 - Korean and Japanese Views on China
24:07 - Drones and Autonomous Warfare
24:50 - Vietnam's Reinvention
28:07 - Singapore-U.S. Relations
30:21 - Paused Arms Sales
34:00 - Iran and Electoral Politics
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Matti Friedman is an award-winning journalist and columnist at The Free Press. He joins the show to discuss his latest book, Out of the Sky: Heroism and Rebirth in Nazi Europe. Whom were the Zionist Jews fighting on behalf of the British during World War II? What happened to the legendary Zionist figure Hannah Senesh? And how did a war story without battlefield success help give birth to a nation?
01:45 - The scene in British Mandate Palestine
07:30 - British MI9 unit
07:38 - Jewish military units
08:41 - Rescue missions into Europe
14:21 - Secret meeting in Tel Aviv
17:29 - Palestinian Jews’ view of European Jewry
21:51 - Hannah Senesh
24:46 - Parachuting technology in WWII
26:44 - Sword of Honour trilogy
29:48 - Discrimination against Jewish agents in Europe
32:54 - Chaos at the end of WWII
34:13 - Hannah Senesh’s doomed mission
43:10 - The escape of Hannah’s mother
47:43 - The importance of heroes and myths
49:06 - Understanding Zionism
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Jake Sullivan, former U.S. national security adviser under President Joe Biden, Kissinger professor of the practice of statecraft and world order at the Harvard Kennedy School, and co-host of The Long Game podcast, joins School of War to discuss geopolitics through the lens of today’s Democratic Party. Where do Democrats stand on China, Israel, Iran, and the war in Ukraine?
02:29 - China summit recap
04:03 - President Trump’s goals in China
05:44 - Taiwan threat level
08:50 - Democratic Party position on China
14:16 - Avoiding war with China
16:39 - Nature of competition with China
18:39 - Role of AI in power struggle
23:44 - Critique of Trump’s Iran policy
27:17 - Democratic Party position on Iran
32:30 - Iran’s nuclear program
35:25 - Democratic Party position on Israel
45:15 - Russia-Ukraine conflict
51:12 - Democratic Party restraint policies
52:56 - Weapon systems assistance for Ukraine
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Sir Niall Ferguson, Milbank Family Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution and columnist at The Free Press, joins the show in front of a live audience to discuss the perilous moment we find ourselves in and how it all relates to history. What is the status of the Iran war? What is influencing President Donald Trump’s policymaking? How do we defeat a dangerous wave of “anti-history”? And are we on the brink of a world war, a cold war, or something in between?
03:35 - Historical analogies for today
09:51 - Short war illusion
15:14 - We’re in a Cold War II
18:12 - Putin’s essay from 2021
19:50 - Russia-Ukraine war
25:29 - The American mythos of WWII
26:58 - Anti-history
30:04 - The life work of Bill Buckley
31:37 - Return of antisemitism and socialism
32:52 - President Trump’s worldview
36:37 - The war in Iran
47:45 - The new state of warfighting
53:53 - President Trump’s treatment of Ukraine
57:17 - Risks of Taiwan conflict
01:03:57 - Limits to air power
01:06:58 - Reversal of historical revisionism
01:12:30 - Story about Aaron’s father
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Christian Brose, president and chief strategy officer of Anduril Industries and author of The Kill Chain: Defending America in the Future of High-Tech Warfare, joins the show to help us evaluate American performance against Iran so far and discuss the state of defense innovation in America. What is on the cutting edge? Where are we falling behind? And what happens if the war comes home?
Times:
01:58 - Audit of Operation Epic Fury
05:04 - Munitions and weapons shortages
08:30 - New lower-cost weapons
10:56 - The Barracuda cruise missile system
15:04 - Lessons from the battlefield
15:41 - Missile defense systems
21:47 - Software, data, and AI
24:39 - Homeland defense
27:02 - Containerization
28:05 - Industrial capacity
31:36 - Bringing Americans back into defense manufacturing
34:43 - The defense budget
39:02 - Anduril fundraising
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Elliott Abrams, senior fellow for Middle Eastern studies at the Council on Foreign Relations and chairman of the Vandenberg Coalition and the Tikvah Fund, joins the show to discuss Israel, Iran, and the new power dynamics in the Middle East. What new alliances have emerged since the chaos on October 7, 2023? How has the current war with Iran reshaped the region? With a storm of competing interests, fragile partnerships, and global stakes, can stability emerge, or is the Middle East heading toward an even wider conflict?
02:10 - Israel today
04:02- Israeli airport security
05:58 - Netanyahu’s domestic political situation
09:07 - Bibi’s secret visit to the UAE
10:15 - American military aircrafts in Israel
12:01 - Israel-UAE relationship
15:57- October 7th Middle East aftermath
17:17 - Erosion of Iranian proxies
19:20 - Israeli-Saudi relationship
20:27 - Egypt’s global decline
22:24 - Turkey’s role
29:09 - Israel-Lebanon relationship
28:30 - Hezbollah factor
32:25 - How to handle Hamas
36:31 - Iran and the future of the Strait of Hormuz
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Sam Brownback, former Kansas senator and governor, co-chair of the International Religious Freedom Summit, and author of China’s War on Faith, joins School of War to discuss the Chinese Communist Party’s persecution of religious minorities and how its domestic oppression shapes America’s broader strategic posture toward China. How is Beijing using the digital revolution as a tool of political control? Should freedom of religion be treated as a central front in the U.S.-China rivalry? With President Trump currently in China for a summit with President Xi Jinping, the world is watching a clash that extends beyond economics and military power into a conflict over faith, freedom, and the moral future of humanity.
Times:
03:25 - Trump’s China summit
05:25 - Clash of civilizations
06:18 - History of Christianity in China
08:41 - Governor’s transformative past
11:07- Systems of communism
15:53 - Chinese surveillance technology
17:22 - Peter Xu history
19:40 - Dangers of the CCP
20:53 - Treatment of religious minorities
26:12 - Technologies for oppression
29:00 - Trump’s handling of disentanglement
32:25 - American religious freedom
35:20 - The Falun Gong
37:46 - Confrontation vs. accommodation
42:59 - Story of Wang Chun Yan
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Dan Blumenthal, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, joins the show to discuss the president’s upcoming summit in Beijing with President Xi Jinping. What are President Trump’s goals? How will war with Iran affect the meeting? And what do these discussions mean for the future of conflict in the Indo-Pacific?
02:12 Trump’s summit with Xi Jinping
03:38 Trump’s goals at summit
04:48 China’s leverage over Iran
05:57 China’s principal interest in the Middle East
08:14 U.S. sanctions on Iran and China
10:22 China’s diversified energy imports
13:05 American-Chinese competition
15:34 Defense industrial base issues
16:03 AI factor
16:34 China’s industrial leverage
19:05 Economic showdown
24:43 The Taiwan issue
26:22 Global conflict lessons for Taiwan
28:46 Division of Taiwanese politics
31:46 Stakes for the future
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Nicholas Eberstadt, the Henry Wendt Chair in Political Economy at the American Enterprise Institute, joins School of War to discuss global population decline. What does a shrinking and aging population mean for the United States? What does it mean for China, whose demographic crisis may be even more severe? How could population decline reshape economic growth, military power, and geopolitical competition? And what happens to the international order when the world stops growing?
03:02 Population decline in America
006:15 Deaths exceeding births in the US
07:31 Global birth crash
14:49 Grounds for optimism
17:12 Small family trend
18:17 GDP relationship with population size
19:23 Individual prosperity vs. National strength
21:24 Rise in human life expectancy
24:36 Ben Carson’s prediction
27:11 Ukraine’s military revolution
30:47 American bad habits
33:48 AI and the labor market
37:25 Chinese depopulation crisis
48:50 What would a world war look like today?
51:48 US Alliance relationships
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Rich Goldberg, senior adviser at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, and Garrett Exner, adjunct fellow at Hudson Institute, return to School of War to discuss the complicated news out of the Strait of Hormuz. What is President Donald Trump’s new plan, “Project Freedom”? Does it put the ceasefire at risk? What’s really happening in this critical waterway?
Times:
02:31 - President’s statement
04:00 - Understanding Project Freedom
07:15 - Attacks against tankers
09:53 - Central Command statement
12:15 - Ceasefire breakdown
16:25 - Coordination cell or escort
18:00 - Trump buying time
20:40 - US Navy escort option
23:06 - Missile defense
24:45 - Economic impacts
27:01 - Iran under pressure
31:50 - Live news US vessel transit
34:15 - Human factor of outbound transit
37:30 - American gas production
39:28 - Predictions in America’s favor
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Lance R. Blyth, command historian of the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) and United States Northern Command (USNORTHCOM), joins School of War to discuss the evolution of North America’s air defense. How has NORAD adapted to shifting threats over the decades? Are today’s threats manageable? Are we in a new Cold War? And what can the command, with operations deep inside a Colorado mountain, teach us about defending the continent in an era of renewed great-power competition?
Times:
02:04 History of NORAD
07:02 Threats of the 1950s
13:50 Sensors, effectors, and connectors
15:15 Semi-Automatic Ground Environment (SAGE)
19:45 SABRE travel system
21:14 Aerospace missile warning systems
22:07 Cheyenne Mountain Complex
24:13 NORAD in films
27:56 False missile launches
31:31 Adapting to new threats
34:23 New joint surveillance system
35:19 Importance of Canada
36:21 September 11
40:21 Operation Noble Eagle
43:00 Today’s threats
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Douglas Murray, journalist and author of On Democracies and Death Cults, joins School of War to discuss the assassination attempt that we both witnessed in person at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner on Saturday. Was there a lapse in appropriate security? Is political violence being normalized? Can it be contained?
Times:
02:44 - White House Correspondents Dinner
04:38 - Shots fired
06:51 - Security at the dinner
09:58 - Bobby Kennedy and Erika Kirk
16:25 - Secret Service valor
17:25 - Israeli security style
19:42 - Trump’s ballroom
21:35 - The shooter’s manifesto
27:26 - Past American political violence
29:13 - Assassinations can change history
31:09 - Hitler comparison
34:47 - Civic hygiene
36:49 - Justifying violence on NYT podcast
40:22 - Echoes of the Russian Revolution
47:05 - Failure of the education system
54:23 - The melding of the president and media
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Huw Davies, an associate dean and professor of British military history at King’s College London and author of several books, including The Wandering Army, joins School of War to discuss what the 18th-century British Army can teach us about modern warfare. How does battlefield failure drive military innovation? How did institutions of the past respond to change? And in an era of drones, autonomy, and AI, have we learned from the past, or are we destined to repeat it?
Times:
02:40 18th century military enlightenment
06:30 War of the Austrian Succession
12:43 The British officer class
18:39 Tension between ancients and moderns
20:20 Discovering Sir Henry Clinton’s notebook
20:48 False caricature of the British Army
27:02 Challenges of North American warfare
29:32 Battle of the Monongahela
35:09 Importance of light infantry
38:17 Rifle evolution
39:00 Why armies resist change
43:40 Lessons for today
46:42 Human behavior in war
47:10 Learning curve of war technologies
49:11 Is Ukrainian drone warfare a turning point?
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Major General Mick Ryan, Australian Army (retired), Senior Fellow for Military Studies at the Lowy Institute, adjunct fellow with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and author of the Futura Doctrina Substack joins the show to dissect the current state of the war in Iran. Is this conflict entering a postmortem phase, or are we still in the middle of it? How has America performed so far? How does this war connect to the Pacific theater? Are we adapting for a broader global conflict, and are our adversaries adapting as well?
Times:
002:20 Iran war impact on Australia
05:06 American performance in this war
06:22 Israeli partnership over NATO
08:21 Strait of Hormuz closure
13:07 Is the US prepared for a long-term war?
15:50 Importance of AI
18:17 Israeli performance
18:55 Iran frustrating US objectives
19:26 Lessons for Taiwan
20:31 Does political decapitation work?
22:41 How is the Axis learning from this conflict
25:44 China’s interest in the Middle East
29:04 Grim predictions of the road ahead
30:40 Iranian hardliners
31:16 Importance of getting the strait open
34:29 Pilot rescue mission
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Aviv Shapira, the co-founder and CEO of XTEND, joins the show to discuss his journey from competitive drone racing to building groundbreaking defense technology. How are drone swarms changing warfare? What are the ethical implications of AI weaponry? What happens if this technology falls into the wrong hands? And what comes next?
01:58 Aviv’s background04:46 Replay technologies08:28 VR Messi08:58 Xtend description09:55 Drone racing12:56 Headset importance14:13 Ender’s Game17:02 AI drones21:34 Tunnel warfare27:11 Diversity of drone needs30:41 Drone swarms34:16 Human machine teaming37:10 Rule of three41:52 Ethical questions44:11 Future of munitions45:26 Xtend business model49:23 Future of this technology52:22 Tech in enemy hands
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