Afleveringen
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On today’s show Andrew and Bill wish a Happy Lunar New Year to the audience and interrupt the holiday week in the PRC to share various reactions to a week of DeepSeek discussion in the U.S. Topics include: The DeepSeek origin story, OpenAI and distillation questions, DeepSeek’s future in China after Liang Wenfeng’s meeting with Li Qiang, how the U.S. government might process these developments, and a dizzying spectrum of reactions from all around the Internet.
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On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with the fate of TikTok after a wild week of updates. Topics include: A ByteDance investor who says that TikTok may continue in the U.S. without a full divestiture, lessons for Beijing and Americans from the past few weeks, and why potential TikTok buyers might be wary of any deal structure that doesn't comply with the letter of federal law. Then: Week 1 of the Trump presidency provides some breathing room to both sides of the US-China tariff negotiations, why negotiations may not yield any structural relief to the US-China trade tensions, updates on the PRC economy, and why Beijing may be wary of a currency devaluation in the face of a new round of tariffs. At the end: Two updates on Taiwan, why the Taiwanese may want to choose better intermediaries to the U.S. government, and the absence of US-China tensions in Hollywood.
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Zijn er afleveringen die ontbreken?
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On today’s show Bill and Andrew begin with multiple reports that Chinese officials have considered working with Elon Musk to find a resolution for TikTok in the U.S., while TikTok‘s users have flocked to Xiaohongshu and inspired a few more questions for the future. Then: Parsing Xi Jinping’s speech in the first 2025 issue of Qiushi, why both the substance of his message and his audience heighten concerns, and reactions to a new fleet of barges in Guangzhou that could factor into the PRC’s plans for Taiwan. At the end: U.S.-China updates, including a final rule from the U.S. on connected vehicles, proposed rules on AI chips, more alarms being sounded on PRC hacking, looming tech bro fissures, and the emissary from the PRC who may attend next week’s presidential inauguration.
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On a bonus episode following up on Wednesday morning's show, Andrew and Bill react to the news—which broke later Wednesday morning—that the Supreme Court has granted cert to TikTok in its appeal of the D.C. Circuit's decision earlier this month upholding the Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act. Topics include: A bit more hope for TikTok, revisiting the D.C. Circuit’s answer to the First Amendment question that’s now before the Supreme Court, various Trump unknowns, and a busy holiday season for Jones Day associates.
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On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with a few updates on the Central Economic Work Conference, economic headwinds facing the PRC economy, including weaker-than-expected retail data, mixed data from the real estate market, and concerns from an economist assessing the conditions on the ground. From there: Reactions to last week's PLA exercises around Taiwan, divergent reactions from policymakers in Taipei and Washington, and a new report on the process behind the Biden Administration's latest round of updates to the semiconductor export controls. At the end: President-elect Trump on his relationship with Xi Jinping, TikTok takes its case to the Supreme Court, and the NBA (sort of) announces plans for a series of preseason games in Macau.
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On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with the latest messaging from Beijing on efforts to stimulate the economy in 2025 and beyond. Topics include: Politburo language that echoes 2008, muted reactions from the mainland markets, why the ultimate policy decisions may not be made until the PRC has more clarity on Trump's intentions, and more. From there: Nvidia finds itself at the center of an antitrust probe, while the PRC restrictions on critical minerals are broader than initially thought, and drone components are now also being restricted from export to the US and Europe. At the end: Reviewing last Friday's verdict from the DC Circuit in TikTok v. Garland, and charting the next steps for TikTok and the Trump administration as January 19th approaches and TikTok faces a ban in the United States.
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On today’s show Andrew and Bill return from the holiday break with reactions to the latest round updates to the US export controls on semiconductors. Topics include: Why some think the updates are weaker than they should’ve been, takeaways from the past two years of chip controls, TikTok’s new hopes, and whether the U.S. has now passed the peak of tough-on-China policies. From there: The suspension of Admiral Miao Hua, member of the Central Military Commission and director of the Political Work Department of the PLA, reports (and denials) that Defense Minister Dong Jun is under investigation, and thoughts on the way into the CEWC after November comes and goes without a public announcement of a Politburo meeting. At the end: Trump threatens 100% tariffs over a BRICS currency that does not yet exist, Beijing continues to guess at Trump’s objectives with tariff policy, the latest on the US telecommunications hack, and good news for unfairly maligned grandmothers in the PRC.
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On today's show Andrew and Bill begin by parsing the PRC readout from this weekend's meeting between XI Jinping and President Joe Biden, including the four red lines communicated by the PRC to the US, PRC language surrounding enhanced security ties between the US and pacific allies, and a farewell to the San Francisco vision. From there: Xi Jinping's message to APEC and the charm offensive planned for a Trump administration, China's calculus amid global climate initiatives, and extended thoughts on the recent mass casualties events around China and likely party responses. At the end: An update on the Trump transition, Howard Lutnick is picked to run the Commerce Department, and Apple and Google's calculus with respect to the TikTok law.
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On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with Friday's announcement from the NPC standing committee and more incremental stabilization measures from PRC leadership. Topics include: Foreign investors (again) hoping for more, "deepening reforms" and domestic consumption, the trade surplus with the US exceeds the trillion dollar threshold, and why attempts to build an alliance with the EU are unlikely to succeed. From there: Taiwan considers a big arms purchase as Trump prepares to take office, the Philippines aims to buy intermediate range missile launchers, and TSMC halts the sale of advanced chips to China. At the end: Trump's early cabinet picks, another report on Trump's plans for TikTok, the "reverse Nixon" dream, and Elon Musk's mother is a brand ambassador in the PRC.
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On today’s show Andrew and Bill talk through a second Donald Trump presidency and what it might mean for US-China relations. Topics include: a note of congratulations from Xi Jinping Thursday morning, memories of the first Trump presidency, the calculus from both sides as tariffs loom, a larger toolkit of responses to trade policy for the PRC, potential intermediaries between Trump's administration and PRC leadership, and the strategic challenges and opportunities that China sees in a Trump administration. At the end: TikTok’s fate and whether Trump will save the app’s future in the United States, additional details on the Salt Typhoon telecommunications hack, and thoughts on the Biden administration's approach to the PRC, and the challenges facing any U.S. administration.
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On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with an excellent report from Semi Analysis, and the state of the U.S. export controls on semiconductors and chipmaking equipment. Topics include: New reports of TSMC sales to Huawei-linked firms, the Commerce Department's oversight of chip controls, the various loopholes being routinely exploited by SMIC, Huawei and related entities, and enforcement questions for future administrations. From there: The NPC Standing Committee meeting is set for next week, the latest reports on what might be announced, and questions concerning the timing of the meeting, which will coincide with the US election. At the end: The PRC's crackdown on the private tutoring industry might be lifting, and reports that Chinese hackers targeted data from both Presidential campaigns.
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On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with Xi Jinping's visit to the16th BRICS Summit and Russia's rumored effort to build a platform for international payments that would be immune to Western sanctions. From there: The Power of Siberia-2 pipeline that may or may not materialize, waiting for news on the next meeting of the NPC standing committee, and one theory on how the US election could impact the timing of the next fiscal announcement. Then: Xi's visit to a PLA Rocket Force brigade in Anhui, the rhetoric Xi uses surrounding the PLA and its readiness, and thoughts on the continued buildout of the PRC nuclear arsenal. At the end: A note on Taiwan's energy security, clarity on the names of the National Zoo’s new pandas, and a flurry of reports and questions surrounding Huawei, TSMC and the Commerce Department's oversight of export controls on chipmaking equipment.
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On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with the news that the PRC has sent two pandas to the National Zoo in Washington D.C., as Qing Bao, a 3-year-old year-old female, and Bao Li, a 3-year-old male, begin a 30-day quarantine in the Panda House. Then: Takeaways from Monday's Operation Joint Sword 2024B around Taiwan, including the strategic value of these military exercises for the PRC, and the implications of normalizing this pattern of behavior. From there: Parsing the "stimulus" news over the last several days, including the strain on local governments, why reports suggest that Xi and the central government are taking action to help them, and heightened scrutiny on overseas investments. At the end: Following up on Bill's conversation about the 2024 US Election, a Financial Times report on PRC educators ordered to surrender their passport, and an emailer provides a look at the new quality productive forces in dentistry.
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On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with the market's reactions to the NDRC press briefing on Tuesday, as Hong Kong saw all of last week's gains erased, while the PRC markets continued to see gains. Topics include: Misplaced expectations on the NDRC press conference, a National People's Congress meeting later in October that may articulate more concrete measures, and more thoughts on the continued volatility in the market themselves as well as commentary around the world. From there: An emailer has a question about a potential ByteDance IPO, a note on the broader concerns that persist in the PRC, and the EU passes tariffs on PRC EVs. At the end: A note on Taiwan National Day and the potential for an Operation Joint Sword 2024B, and a listener notes that Xi Jinping is leaving China far less frequently than he once did.
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On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with revived animal spirits and the market response to the stimulus measures emerging from Beijing. Topics include: The September Politburo meeting as a sign of the government's commitment, why the capital markets may be a security priority for Xi, what might have motivated the sudden policy shift at the top, and parallels to the market responses in 2014. From there: The property sector and the multi-layered problem policymakers are attempting to solve, Blinken meets with Wang Yi in New York but still no word on a phone call between President Biden and Xi Jinping, a PRC nuclear submarine sinks, and a question about succession in the event of Xi's passing.
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On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with a raft of measures announced this week to stimulate the economy. Topics include: A pop to the stock market just in time for the PRC's 75th anniversary, stimulating mergers and acquisitions, whether this week's measures indicate more relief in the months to come, and more. Then: The disappearance of prominent economist Zhu Hengpeng, and a reminder of structural problems under Xi that have continued to intensify, regardless of monetary policy. At the end: The Ministry of Commerce announces that the owner of Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger is under investigation, the US Commerce Department moves forward with a proposed rule that would effectively ban Chinese vehicles from the US, and a Substack post offers a taxonomy of Democrat China policies and questions about who might set the agenda for a Kamala Harris administration.
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On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin by wishing a happy Mid-Autumn Festival to all. Then: The PRC government implements the Decision on Gradually Raising the Statutory Retirement Ages. Why was this necessary, why were the changes made now, and what might this signal about the rest of goals and reforms announced at the Third Plenum? From there: The PRC blockade at Xianbin Jiao/Sabina Shoal appears to have succeeded as the Philippines returns the BRP Theresa Magbanua to port, and questions persist as to when, and how, the US might deter PRC tactics in the South China Sea. At the end: The latest lobbying effort surrounding updated export controls, Japan's negotiations with the US over export controls, the Biden administration takes on the de minimis loophole, and TikTok’s trial begins in DC.
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On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with reactions to last week's arrest of Linda Sun, a former deputy chief of staff to governor Kathy Hochul. Topics include: The allegations contained in the Department of Justice indictment of Sun and her husband, the PRC efforts to influence local government officials around the world, the status of New York Consul General Huang Ping, and a report on the suppression of dissidents during Xi's APEC visit in November. From there: Updates on the overcapacity concerns around the world, a Bloomberg story on a $6.5 trillion stock rout, and reactions to a thoughtful Substack post on deleveraging efforts and deflation concerns in the midst of recent turmoil. At the end: An update on Qin Gang that may or may not resolve lingering questions, and a new rock bottom for the PRC men's soccer team.
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On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with a look at the dialogue between National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and Director of the Office of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission Wang Yi. Topics include: Why meetings with Wang are valuable to the U.S. side, the progress the meetings have (and have not) yielded, and the strategy going forward. From there: Yet another clash between the PRC and the Philippines over the weekend, continued questions about when and how the U.S. may intervene, and updates on the next phase of chip controls as the Netherlands weighs a policy change, the PRC threatens retribution against Japan, and a cloud computing loophole persists. At the end: An emailer asks about Xi‘s speeches, and thoughts on the success of the best-selling video game in the world this week, Black Myth: Wukong.
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