Afleveringen
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On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with the news that the US and PRC are sending representatives to Switzerland to discuss trade talks this weekend. Topics include: Why expectations should be set low, the week of signs that the PRC was willing to engage, questions about cooperating on fentanyl, and the latest measures to loosen monetary policy in Beijing. From there: An email about Chinese data spawns a conversation about increasing data opacity, and challenges for Westerners and the party alike. At the end: Thoughts on the PRC’s relationship to Russia as Xi Jinping heads to Moscow, the consequences (or lack thereof) for the PRC’s support for Russia’s war in Ukraine, and reactions to a pair of CIA videos recruiting disaffected party members.
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On today’s show Andrew and Bill take stock of the trade war one month after “Liberation Day.” Topics include: Domestic messaging on “struggle” and external promises to never kneel down, the risks facing the PRC as US tariffs threaten to compound overcapacity controversies and invite heightened scrutiny around the world, Week 3 of speculation on whether the US and China are negotiating on trade, and why talk of a resolution and return to the March status quo seems increasingly unrealistic. At the end: The April Politburo meeting reflects both caution and confidence, a study session on AI spells bad news for Nvidia, thoughts on Apple’s story in China as the company tries to relocate US iPhone assembly to India, and Netflix gets the last laugh 15 years after being rebuffed by PRC censors.
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Zijn er afleveringen die ontbreken?
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On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with Tuesday’s signals that the Trump administration may seek to deescalate its trade war, why Beijing may see it as confirmation that their patient approach is working, and questions about what’s next as the Trump messaging on trade changes by the day. From there: The PRC warns countries about cooperating with the US, and why the apparent US flip-flopping likely hurts their cause with third-party countries. At the end: A dispatch from Yiwu, more on PRC messages to third-party countries, and a listener’s note on Trump’s caustic approach to Canada.
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On today's show Andrew and Bill return to discuss the state of the trade war two weeks after “Liberation Day” and the imposition of a 145% tariff rate on PRC goods. Topics include: Reports of a Trump Admin strategy to isolate the PRC, daily talk of a deal with China from President Trump, himself, signals from the PRC side that they may be willing to negotiate, and the PRC cancels orders of Boeing planes. From there: A raft of news on Nvidia as the U.S. restricts the export of H20 chips to China, Jensen Huang visits Beijing for an appearance with He Lifeng, and questions for the future of Nvidia and U.S. chip policies more generally. At the end: China restricts the export of rare earths to the U.S., rare earths as a keystone to understanding broader U.S. supply chain challenges, "Red and Expert" anxiety 60 years later, and TikTok faces new uncertainty in the wake of the tariffs.
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On today's show Andrew and Bill return to discuss the intensification of the US-China trade war, including tariffs of 104% beginning on Wednesday, the PRC's options to respond, how companies like Apple could be squeezed, and why this represents the lowest point for US-China relations in a very long time. Then: Exploring EU opportunities and challenges after Premier Li Qiang's call with EU President Ursula von der Leyen, the debunked report about South Korea and Japan cooperating with the PRC, and unpacking the risks and possibilities inherent to the course the US side has chosen over the past week. At the end: Reactions to the latest TikTok extension from President Trump, a report that Liu He's son is under investigation, and a new name for the gardening podcast that may be essential in the months to come.
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On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with the China Development Forum, including China's messaging to foreign investors, revisiting the Mintz raids as five detained employees are finally released, no updates on a Xi-Trump meeting, and news in the EV space. From there: The US plans to revive shipbuilding capacity, the likely disruption if the US adopts the USTR recommendations to counter Chinese dominance, Michael Froman writes that China has remade the international system, and a few more thoughts on the CK Hutchison deal. At the end: Rumors swirl around He Weidong and others in the PLA, what the noise might signal, and news of a deep-sea cable cutter is accompanied by a reminder that China constructs and protects deep sea cable like no other.
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On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with Taiwanese President Lai Ching-Te designating the PRC a "foreign hostile force," the initial response from the PRC and potential responses to come, rumors surrounding CMC vice chairman He Weidong, and an email wondering about the defense of Taiwan as a core American interest. From there: Sources say Xi Jinping is "angered" by CK Hutchison's deal to sell its ports in Panama, and TikTok talks accelerate as Beijing remains silent on the issue and Oracle heads to Washington to pitch lawmakers on Project Texas 2.0. At the end: Trump says that Xi will visit "soon" but sources tell the FT otherwise, a question about Beijing's reaction to DOGE and Trump 2.0, a question on fentanyl, and a bit more on the memoir of a former Facebook exec.
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On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with takeaways from the Two Sessions, including good news for tech companies as the push for new quality productive forces continues, the rhetoric surrounding domestic consumption alongside modest stimulus measures so far, the NDRC's plan to mobilize 1 billion yuan to support the startup ecosystem, and more. From there: The PRC announces new tariffs on Canadian exports and state TV warns against Canada cooperating with the U.S. on tariffs, and dueling reports on a potential Trump-Xi meeting as communication remains frustrated between high level US and China leaders. At the end: Cuts to USAID provide a win to the PRC as China-watching NGOs go offline, a whistleblower highlights Facebook’s failed attempts to enter China, and TikTok rumors continue to churn as the apparent deadline for a sale approaches in April.
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On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with Trump raising tariffs on the PRC by 10%, the PRC's response, and the phone call Xi-Trump phone call that was rumored a month ago but still hasn't happened. Then: What to watch for during Two Sessions week, Xi has always supported private enterprises, a response from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on fentanyl, and why the U.S. focusing on domestic enforcement only goes far. From there: A roundup of news on chips, including an investigation in Singapore, TSMC's investment in the United States, a Wall Street Journal report on Nvidia, and questions facing the Trump team as new policy takes shape. At the end: The New York Times reports on "plea leniency," FIFA won't play ball with the PRC, and a variety of Moutai thoughts as Kweichow Moutai struggles to find demand.
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On today's show Andrew and Bill begin by parsing the White House's memorandum on an America First Investment Policy, President Trump's recent appointees, the latest news from the Commerce Department and BIS, and a proposal for lifting controls on chips and tightening controls on chipmaking equipment. From there: "Reverse Nixon" possibilities and structural realities that make it unlikely, document #1 and the party's priorities surrounding food security, a PRC fishing crew is detained for questioning after a Taiwan cable cutting incident, the significance of the PLA drills between Australia and New Zealand last week, and a word about lawfare and law firms.
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On today’s special crossover Sharp Tech/Sharp China episode, Ben Thompson and Bill Bishop discuss the private enterprise symposium and Xi Jinping's rapprochement with China's tech companies, and the connection between xAI and DeepSeek. Then, an extended debate on the chip ban, including its potential long-term consequences, and whether or not a course correction is possible. Finally, why the situation surround Taiwan is worrisome, and whether Trump is looking to make a deal.
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On today's show Andrew and Bill begin by talking through a first round of US tariffs on PRC goods and responses from the PRC earlier this week. Topics include: The fentanyl allegations that served as the predicate for these tariffs, Chinese responses that highlight points of leverage should trade tensions escalate, next steps in negotiations, and the end of the de minimis loophole. From there: Secretary of State Marco Rubio tours Latin America, the PRC's investments in Panama, and questions for the future of the Panama Canal. At the end: The PRC announces an investigation into Google, a Bloomberg report suggests Apple's being investigated for its app store policies, Apple's growth in China plateaus, and a few more thoughts on DeepSeek as Congress reacts and BIS gets a new leader.
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On today’s show Andrew and Bill wish a Happy Lunar New Year to the audience and interrupt the holiday week in the PRC to share various reactions to a week of DeepSeek discussion in the U.S. Topics include: The DeepSeek origin story, OpenAI and distillation questions, DeepSeek’s future in China after Liang Wenfeng’s meeting with Li Qiang, how the U.S. government might process these developments, and a dizzying spectrum of reactions from all around the Internet.
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On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with the fate of TikTok after a wild week of updates. Topics include: A ByteDance investor who says that TikTok may continue in the U.S. without a full divestiture, lessons for Beijing and Americans from the past few weeks, and why potential TikTok buyers might be wary of any deal structure that doesn't comply with the letter of federal law. Then: Week 1 of the Trump presidency provides some breathing room to both sides of the US-China tariff negotiations, why negotiations may not yield any structural relief to the US-China trade tensions, updates on the PRC economy, and why Beijing may be wary of a currency devaluation in the face of a new round of tariffs. At the end: Two updates on Taiwan, why the Taiwanese may want to choose better intermediaries to the U.S. government, and the absence of US-China tensions in Hollywood.
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On today’s show Bill and Andrew begin with multiple reports that Chinese officials have considered working with Elon Musk to find a resolution for TikTok in the U.S., while TikTok‘s users have flocked to Xiaohongshu and inspired a few more questions for the future. Then: Parsing Xi Jinping’s speech in the first 2025 issue of Qiushi, why both the substance of his message and his audience heighten concerns, and reactions to a new fleet of barges in Guangzhou that could factor into the PRC’s plans for Taiwan. At the end: U.S.-China updates, including a final rule from the U.S. on connected vehicles, proposed rules on AI chips, more alarms being sounded on PRC hacking, looming tech bro fissures, and the emissary from the PRC who may attend next week’s presidential inauguration.
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On a bonus episode following up on Wednesday morning's show, Andrew and Bill react to the news—which broke later Wednesday morning—that the Supreme Court has granted cert to TikTok in its appeal of the D.C. Circuit's decision earlier this month upholding the Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act. Topics include: A bit more hope for TikTok, revisiting the D.C. Circuit’s answer to the First Amendment question that’s now before the Supreme Court, various Trump unknowns, and a busy holiday season for Jones Day associates.
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On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with a few updates on the Central Economic Work Conference, economic headwinds facing the PRC economy, including weaker-than-expected retail data, mixed data from the real estate market, and concerns from an economist assessing the conditions on the ground. From there: Reactions to last week's PLA exercises around Taiwan, divergent reactions from policymakers in Taipei and Washington, and a new report on the process behind the Biden Administration's latest round of updates to the semiconductor export controls. At the end: President-elect Trump on his relationship with Xi Jinping, TikTok takes its case to the Supreme Court, and the NBA (sort of) announces plans for a series of preseason games in Macau.
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On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with the latest messaging from Beijing on efforts to stimulate the economy in 2025 and beyond. Topics include: Politburo language that echoes 2008, muted reactions from the mainland markets, why the ultimate policy decisions may not be made until the PRC has more clarity on Trump's intentions, and more. From there: Nvidia finds itself at the center of an antitrust probe, while the PRC restrictions on critical minerals are broader than initially thought, and drone components are now also being restricted from export to the US and Europe. At the end: Reviewing last Friday's verdict from the DC Circuit in TikTok v. Garland, and charting the next steps for TikTok and the Trump administration as January 19th approaches and TikTok faces a ban in the United States.
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On today’s show Andrew and Bill return from the holiday break with reactions to the latest round updates to the US export controls on semiconductors. Topics include: Why some think the updates are weaker than they should’ve been, takeaways from the past two years of chip controls, TikTok’s new hopes, and whether the U.S. has now passed the peak of tough-on-China policies. From there: The suspension of Admiral Miao Hua, member of the Central Military Commission and director of the Political Work Department of the PLA, reports (and denials) that Defense Minister Dong Jun is under investigation, and thoughts on the way into the CEWC after November comes and goes without a public announcement of a Politburo meeting. At the end: Trump threatens 100% tariffs over a BRICS currency that does not yet exist, Beijing continues to guess at Trump’s objectives with tariff policy, the latest on the US telecommunications hack, and good news for unfairly maligned grandmothers in the PRC.
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