Afleveringen
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Paul Merriman joins host Roben Farzad on Full Disclosure for a rare conversation alongside Ben Carlson, director of institutional asset management at Ritholtz Wealth and author of the new book Risk and Reward: How to Handle Market Volatility and Build Long-Term Wealth. Roben called it a “truth teller tandem” — the first time these two have sat down together — and the result is an hour of warm, candid, data-grounded talk about how individual investors can actually succeed.
The conversation opens with a great question: does a century of S&P 500 history mean anything when index funds didn’t even exist for most of it? Paul explains why those long-run numbers still matter — not as a promise of the next ten years, but as a guide to the full range of what markets can do. From there, Paul and Ben trace just how far investing has come since Paul entered the business in 1966: the death of the 8.5% sales load, the arrival of IRAs and 401(k)s, fractional shares, and commission-free trading. As Ben puts it, the barriers to entry have been bulldozed, and today’s investor has a better shot at strong net returns than ever before.
But more choices bring more temptation. Paul and Ben dig into diversification as a risk-management tool — why a tilt toward small-cap value and a meaningful allocation to international stocks can pay off over a lifetime, even when the S&P 500 is dominating the headlines. They revisit the lost decade of 2000–2009, the lessons of Japan’s 1989 peak, and the hard discipline of rebalancing into the pain when an asset class is out of favor.
They also get practical about the things keeping investors up at night: inflation as one of the biggest risks most people underestimate, the real trade-offs in today’s bond market and long-duration Treasuries, and an honest look at the FIRE movement — including why meaning, longevity, and a 30- or 40-year retirement complicate the dream of retiring early. Throughout, Paul shares his own story, including why, at 82 and with more than he needs, he still holds half his portfolio in equities because of a caution he’s carried since his twenties.
Ben closes with the thought that may stay with you longest: the most important thing an investor can understand is not the market — it’s themselves. Knowing which mistake you’d regret more, and what you can truly live with, is the foundation everything else is built on.
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I recently sat down with Steve Chen on his Boldin Your Money podcast for a wide-ranging conversation about evidence-based investing — and why it matters more than ever in a world of speculation, hype, and constant financial noise. We covered my early days as a stockbroker in the 1960s, the psychology that trips investors up in downturns, how low-cost index funds transformed personal finance, factor investing and small-cap value, and why younger investors are being pulled toward gambling-like behavior through apps, crypto, and prediction markets. Whether you're just starting out or planning for retirement, I think you'll find it time well spent.
KEY TOPICS DISCUSSED
• The difference between investing and speculation
• Why staying the course is emotionally difficult
• Wall Street incentives and investor behavior
• The origins of index fund investing
• Factor investing and small-cap value explained
• Why diversification matters long term
• Rebalancing strategies and portfolio management
• Financial literacy and generational investing habits
• Why gambling behavior is becoming normalized
• How AI tools like ChatGPT and Claude are changing education
• The psychology behind successful long-term investorsTIMESTAMPS
00:00 Introduction
02:55 Paul Merriman's start in investing
05:20 Wall Street incentives and conflicts of interest
08:35 Why investing is harder than it looks
12:25 Investing vs speculation
15:40 Why people panic during market crashes
17:30 The psychology of staying the course
19:10 Generational wealth and financial literacy
23:40 The case for index funds
28:45 Factor investing explained
32:30 The four-fund portfolio strategy
36:00 Rebalancing and long-term returns
38:00 ChatGPT, Claude, and financial education
42:15 Market valuations and investor behavior
45:30 Building wealth intentionally
49:00 Gambling culture and modern investing
51:45 Teaching financial literacy to younger generations
54:00 Final thoughts on long-term investingRESOURCES MENTIONED
Paul Merriman Foundation: https://www.paulmerriman.com/
Try the Boldin Planner for free: https://go.boldin.com/podcasttep110Watch Video here- https://youtu.be/y_i5wrr_tfM
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Zijn er afleveringen die ontbreken?
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Paul and Chris answer 10 listener questions in one hour — covering asset allocation, investor behavior, funds, indexes, and fund management. They also dig into Daryl Bahls' hot-off-the-press alternative portfolio analysis.
CHAPTERS
00:00 — Intro
01:11 — Funds vs. their indexes
06:04 — Which asset can I drop?
10:50 — Buy and hold for a lifetime?
16:04 — Tracking errors
20:24 — How many years to trust a strategy?
27:05 — The impact of 10% cash
28:18 — What's a "good enough" return?
31:57 — The new worldwide 4-fund portfolio
42:29 — Too old for small-cap value?
44:56 — Avantis and DFA
48:27 — AVES for emerging markets value
54:04 — OutroLINKS & FILES
Sound Investing Quilt Charts
Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns
Two Funds for Life Calculator
Lifetime Investment Calculator
Daryl's 4-Fund Portfolio Analysis (WW 4-Fund)
Other Fine Tuning Tables (50/50)
2FFL Fine Tuning Table — AllocationsWatch Video Here
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In Session 3 of the 2026 Bainbridge Community Foundation Spring Financial Education Series, Paul sits down with Mike Piper — CPA, Personal Financial Specialist, and the voice behind the Oblivious Investor blog and the free Open Social Security calculator — for one of the warmest, most practical conversations of the series. Mike has a rare gift: taking the topics that intimidate most investors and making them feel obvious. Over the course of the hour, he and Paul work through the handful of decisions that genuinely shape a retirement.
Mike opens with a quietly radical idea: if you've prepared well, "more than enough" isn't the exception — it's the most likely outcome. Because we have to plan for long lifespans, poor markets, and high medical costs that usually don't all come to pass, most disciplined savers end up with leftovers. From there, he explains which dollars to spend first each year, how age and capital gains should steer whether you draw from taxable or retirement accounts, and why the step-up in basis matters more than most people realize.
The conversation turns to the human side of money, too — how to talk a couple through it when one spouse is aggressive and the other can't stand the thought of the stock market, why both positions are almost always driven by fear, and how framing the trade-offs around the people you love often brings them closer together. Mike and Paul also tackle the spendthrift-child dilemma, the case for matching a young person's Roth IRA, and why small gifts early can dwarf an inheritance received at 70.
On Social Security, Mike makes the point that most people get the risk exactly backwards: delaying benefits isn't a gamble — it's insurance against the scary scenario of living a very long time. He walks through what really happens if Congress does nothing before the trust fund shortfall around 2033 (hint: the program doesn't disappear), and the range of fixes on the table. Throughout, both men return to the same theme — simple, low-cost, broadly diversified portfolios keep beating the clever alternatives, and the Bessembinder research helps explain why.
Stick around for the closing exchange on using AI to learn from the "Truth Tellers" — and Mike's cautionary tale about a chatbot that invented an entire tax-code provision, word for word and completely convincingly, that simply does not exist.
LINKS:
Mike Piper's blog — obliviousinvestor.com
Open Social Security — opensocialsecurity.com
Mike's books on Amazon — https://bit.ly/49BQugd
Oblivious Investor — https://bit.ly/4oeIacs
We're Talking Millions! (free PDF and audio) — https://www.paulmerriman.com/free-books
If You Can by Bill Bernstein (free PDF) — https://www.paulmerriman.com/free-books
PlanVision — Mark Zoril — planvisionmn.com
The Bessembinder study — "Do Stocks Outperform Treasury Bills?" https://www.morningstar.com/personal-finance/hendrik-bessembinder-do-stocks-outperform-treasury-billsWatch the Video- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bB2ccYRLSOI&feature=youtu.be
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In the final episode of the 2026 Boot Camp series, Paul Merriman sits down with Chris Pedersen and Daryl Bahls to tackle the last fork in the road every investor faces: how to and how much automation to use. After all the boot camp decisions — stocks versus bonds, which equity asset classes, how much fixed income, how to handle contributions and withdrawals — the final question is how much of the day-to-day management you should hand off to a tool, and which tool is right for you.
Chris walks through how M1 Finance “pies” let buy-and-hold investors put their portfolios on autopilot: automated contributions, on-the-fly rebalancing as new money comes in, fractional shares, and one-button rebalancing. He explains the pre-configured Merriman portfolios — the Ultimate Buy and Hold, Worldwide and US Four-Fund, All Value, All Small Cap Value, and the Aggressive Target Date glide path in five-year increments — and an important limitation: once you grab a pie, there’s no live link back to the source, so website updates won’t change your account.
Paul then makes the case for Fidelity’s Basket Portfolios as an alternative, especially for anyone uneasy about moving large sums to a younger company. He covers the flat $4.99-per-month fee regardless of account size, eligible account types, the TFLO short-term Treasury workaround for holding cash, and why Fidelity may fit investors already in the Fidelity ecosystem. The team compares trading windows, account minimums and how each firm counts the $10,000 threshold, and Daryl shares that M1 has grown from about $1 billion in 2020 to roughly $12.5 billion in assets under management.
The conversation closes with practical guidance on mixing and matching Sound Investing portfolios, the question everyone’s asking — “how long do I have to wait for small cap value?” — a reminder not to flail or chase recent performance, why the 10-fund Ultimate Buy and Hold strategy still stands, and a clear explanation of the move from AVUS to AVLC and where AVSC fits.
CHAPTERS
00:00 - Intro
03:10 - M1 Finance
13:45 - Fidelity Baskets
24:27 - Portfolio Combos
29:55 - When to Change Allocations
42:44 - AVLC vs. AVUS
45:15 - OutroLINKS:
Sound Investing Portfolio Pies
M1 Finance Pie Tutorial (Mobile App)
M1 Finance Pie Tutorial (Web Interface)
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In this interview from the 2026 Bainbridge Community Foundation Annual Financial Education Series, Paul sits down with Bill Bernstein — neurologist, financial historian, and author of The Four Pillars of Investing and If You Can — for a wide-ranging conversation drawn from 50-plus years of investing experience.
Bill explains why you're only rewarded for taking risk in well-regulated markets (and why crypto doesn't qualify), how today's market echoes the late 1990s, why the "reverse glide path" makes sense the older you get, and what the Bessembinder research really tells us about the cost of trying to pick winners. Paul and Bill also debate withdrawal strategies, the case against long bonds, and whether tilted small-value investing still works once "the bozos know about it."
A masterclass in evidence-based investing from one of the most respected voices in the field.
CHAPTERS
00:00 Intro from Matt Longmire, Bainbridge Community Foundation
02:50 Welcoming Bill Bernstein
03:50 Why The Four Pillars of Investing belongs on every DIY investor's shelf
05:50 Risk vs. reward — and why Bitcoin doesn't qualify
08:30 How many asset classes do you really need?
11:50 Where today's market resembles the late 1990s
13:40 Are REITs still worth holding?
15:50 The case for automating everything
19:45 Why retirees need to fear sequence-of-returns risk
21:30 Paul's 5% rule vs. the 4% rule
25:30 The two-bucket theory and the reverse glide path
27:30 Prediction markets, gambling, and "being the house"
32:00 The sociological signs of a bubble
35:00 Speculation vs. gambling — gold's real return
40:00 The Bessembinder study: why 4% of stocks make most of the returns
46:00 Why rich people plan three generations ahead
49:00 Audience Q&A
58:30 Tilted index funds (DFA, Avantis) — worth it?
01:03:50 The future of Social Security
01:07:00 Closing thoughts and book recommendationsLINKS:
The Four Pillars of Investing — Bill Bernstein (2nd ed., 2023)
If You Can — Free PDF from Bill Bernstein
The Bessembinder Study — "Do Stocks Outperform Treasury Bills?"
Bainbridge Community Foundation
Ben Carlson's New Book on Risk and Reward
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Chris and Paul explain what target-date funds are and do, and how to augment them with some small-cap value to get the broad diversification benefits of the other Sound Investing portfolios.
They describe several approaches and tools investors can use to determine what might be best for them.
CHAPTERS
00:00 Intro
03:03 Target-Date Funds
07:00 Glide Paths
15:17 TDF Backtesting
19:55 TDF Weaknesses
26:20 "Easy" 2FFL
34:46 "Moderate" 2FFL
37:48 "Aggressive" 2FFL
41:00 Customizer
52:15 Calculator
61:07 Books
66:00 Outro
LINKS:
Wharton: Target Date Funds & Portfolio Choice in 401(k) Plans Morningstar: “2026 Target-Date Fund Landscape” Chris' Tables of 2 Funds for Life and Target Date Funds (PDF) -
Paul sits down with Chris Pedersen and Daryl Bahls for the first Q&A session in months — and this one is built around the questions readers and listeners ask most often. Chris and Daryl share what they're working on next (Best-in-Class ETF updates, Target Date Fund work, telltale charts, risk-adjusted return analysis), Paul talks about a smarter way to use AI for the questions outside our wheelhouse, and the team works through six reader questions about portfolio design — from combining model portfolios to choosing between fund families.
If you've ever wondered whether your portfolio is "right," this conversation will help you think about it the way Chris and Daryl do.
8:30 — Should I combine the Worldwide Four Fund, U.S. Four Fund, and Worldwide All Value with a small cap value tilt?16:00 — How do I read the Sound Investing tables to compare portfolios?30:30 — Worldwide All Small Cap Value vs. the U.S. Two Fund — which is better?38:15 — My Vanguard Four Fund uses VOO, VTV, VB, and VBR — am I using the right ETFs?41:30 — How do Vanguard, Fidelity, Schwab, DFA, and Avantis compare on size and value exposure?46:30 — How do I get help with Merriman portfolios when I need it?Table B2 Table H2 Fine Tuning Tables Portfolio Configurator
You'll get the full answers, the data behind them, and Chris and Daryl's reasoning by watching or listening.
Watch the video here- https://youtu.be/BdTNOkALpuQ
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Paul and Chris introduce the new Avantis and DFA Best-in-Class fund family recommendations and talk about the shift away from evaluating and recommending à la carte choices from multiple fund providers.
They emphasize that the quality and breadth of the offerings from Avantis and DFAhave reached a point where it's better and more sustainable to recommend these fund families than to continually change recommendations among funds that are increasingly close unexpected performance.
Best in Class ETF recommendations https://www.paulmerriman.com/best-in-class-recommendations
Portfolio Configurator https://lookerstudio.google.com/u/0/reporting/a941a5d4-0929-45ea-b22e-3bb82dc334ff/page/99wxc?s=hqmha3-AK5k
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This special two-part session opens with Paul Merriman solo — paying tribute to Tim Ranzetta of Next Generation Personal Finance, sharing the latest numbers on state-mandated financial literacy, and walking through Daryl Bahls' quilt charts to show annual earnings invested in the S&P 500, large-cap value, small-cap blend, and small-cap value since 1928.Then Paul sits down with Christine Benz — Morningstar's Director of Personal Finance and Retirement Planning, and author of How to Retire: 20 Lessons for a Happy, Successful, and Wealthy Retirement — for a wide-ranging conversation on how to actually make a retirement portfolio last.Christine lays out her five-step plan for anyone retiring in 2030 or 2035: turbocharge savings, rethink household spending, build seven to ten years of "safer assets" for portfolio withdrawals, diversify globally, and use TIPS to protect purchasing power. She and Paul dig into how to structure fixed income (short, intermediate, TIPS), why she's cooler on REITs than she used to be, when a simple income annuity makes sense, and why alternatives rarely earn their keep.They also cover performance-chasing the S&P 500, balanced funds vs. building your own portfolio (including Paul's Wellesley/Wellington pairing for hands-off investors), how AI is starting to change the financial advice landscape, and the honest answer to "have you planned out to the day you die?" — even from a Morningstar executive.The audience Q&A covers bonds vs. T-bills, down-payment savings, the four-fund portfolio, Vanguard asset allocation for retirees, tax-efficient withdrawal sequencing, TIAA annuities, managed futures, and gold.Part of the Spring Financial Education Series hosted by the Bainbridge Community Foundation in partnership with the Merriman Financial Education Foundation.Coming up in this series: Mike Piper (April 21) and Bill Bernstein (April 28).🔗 LINKS & RESOURCES:📖 How to Retire — Christine Benz🎙️ The Long View Podcast🌐 https://www.morningstar.com/people/christine-benz📘 https://www.ngpf.org🌐 https://paulmerriman.comTIMESTAMPS:📚 PART 1 — Paul Merriman Solo0:00–Welcome from Matt Longmire2:55–Paul Merriman intro3:50–Tim Ranzetta & NGPF7:00–Financial literacy stats9:30–Why NGPF is free10:30–Ben Carlson & oil shocks13:50–Risk and Reward preview14:40–Quilt charts explained17:00–$100 since 192820:00–Quintile rankings22:30–Four-fund consistency24:00–Volatility discussion25:30–Best/worst decades🎙️ PART 2 — Christine Benz Interview27:00–Christine joins29:00–Retirement mindset31:00–Planning for 2030/203532:30–Boosting savings33:30–Lifestyle adjustments35:00–7–10 years safer assets38:00–Bond strategy40:00–Risk tiers (cash → bonds)42:00–Equity allocation44:30–TIPS importance48:00–Buy-and-hold vs timing50:00–Handling macro fears52:30–Top risks54:00–Annuities overview56:00–SPIAs & DIAs58:30–Income psychology1:02:00–More resources1:04:00–Alternatives critique1:07:30–401(k) concerns1:10:00–Investor gap1:12:00–Christine’s planQ&A:1:15:00–Bonds vs T-bills1:20:00–$95k down payment1:22:00–Four-fund portfolios1:25:00–FXAIX vs VOO1:26:00–Model portfolios1:29:00–Balanced funds1:33:00–Tax-managed funds1:34:00–Active vs passive1:39:00–Bond ETFs1:41:00–TIAA annuities1:42:30–Withdrawal strategy1:44:00–AI investing1:46:00–Future of advice1:50:00–Gold & alternatives1:52:00–Closing thoughts1:53:00–Next episode
Watch video here
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Paul Merriman sits down with Larry Swedroe — author of 22 books and one of the most respected voices in evidence-based investing — for a conversation that covers everything from the five factors that actually matter to why Bitcoin might go to zero.
Larry explains why judging your investment decisions by their outcomes is one of the most dangerous mistakes you can make, lays out the academic criteria he uses to separate real factor premiums from data mining, and reveals that he's made only three tactical moves in 30 years of investing. He and Paul use three eye-opening slides to show why chasing recent winners almost guarantees you'll underperform.
They also dig into why growth stocks don't deliver the returns most people expect (hint: the growth rate is already in the price), why traditional index funds are "dumb traders" bleeding money to hedge funds, and how AI will make markets harder to beat — not easier.
The audience Q&A covers emerging markets, the updated "Larry Portfolio," crypto, private equity, and which fund families Larry actually trusts with his own money.
Part of the Spring Financial Education Series hosted by the Bainbridge Community Foundation in partnership with the Merriman Financial Education Foundation.
LINKS & RESOURCES:
"Enrich Your Future" — Larry Swedroe
"Your Complete Guide to Factor-Based Investing" — Larry Swedroe & Andrew Berkin
"Your Complete Guide to a Successful and Secure Retirement" — Larry Swedroe Larry Swedroe on Substack: https://larryswedroe.substack.com
The Hidden Flaw in Style Index Funds
The Hidden Costs of Index Replication: What Every Investor Needs to Know About
Adverse Effects of Index Replication
Watch the video here.
Coming up in this series: Christine Benz (Morningstar), Mike Piper, and Bill Bernstein.
A special thanks to Professor Bunnell who teaches a finance class at Bentley University. He recommended his students tune into the interview. I hope it motivated them to get a copy of Larry’s latest book. Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing 1st Edition. I would place a very large bet that it will make a huge difference in their financial future. By the way, to the best of my knowledge Bentley is the only university I know that requires a Personal Finance class to graduate.
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Paul Merriman sits down with Mark Zoril, founder of PlanVision, in the first episode of a new series spotlighting affordable financial planning options for do-it-yourself investors.
Mark built PlanVision in 2012 around a simple premise: investing isn't as complicated as the financial services industry makes it seem, and technology makes it possible to deliver thoughtful, unbiased financial advice at a price almost anyone can afford.
In this episode you'll learn:
What you get for $489 in the first year — including access to the eMoney financial planning platform and one-on-one advisor sessionsHow the $8/month ongoing subscription works, and when it makes sense to stay on vs. cancelWhy PlanVision has no commissions, no affiliate links, no insurance sales, and no conflicts of interestHow the firm handles complex situations: Roth conversions, Social Security timing, 529s, pension vs. lump sum, and tax planning (with a CPA on staff)What PlanVision will and won't do — no estate planning, no market timing, no gold hedging strategiesHow they serve expats in over 180 countriesWhat happens when a client passes away and a surviving spouse needs guidanceMark's own investing philosophy — and why he puts his own money in a Vanguard target date fundHow PlanVision works with clients who follow Paul Merriman’s, Rick Ferri's, Larry Swedroe's, or any other multi-equity asset class indexing philosophyLinks mentioned:
PlanVision websitePlanVision testimonialsRob Berger interview with Mark Zoril (expat investing, 60+ min)Stan the Annuity ManBogleheads PlanVision commentsWatch the full video on YouTube
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At 82 years old, I still work. Not because I have to, but because I want to.
I joined Brian Herriot and Kirby Denison on “The Time Freedom Podcast” to talk about exactly that. But we ended up covering a lot more than I expected.
Here's something that might surprise you: I managed money for thousands of people over 30 years and built a firm to $1.6 billion under management. And I have never once managed my own money.
Why? Because I know myself too well. When the market drops, I would second-guess everything. I'd probably hesitate to put more money in, even though that's exactly what I teach people to do. So I let someone else handle it. I don't even check how I did last year.
We also got into my disagreement with John Bogle. I had the privilege of sitting with him for about 90 minutes earlier in my career. Bogle preached Enough and it's even the title of one of his books.
I respectfully disagree. I believe the goal should be more than enough. Because life gets in the way. Bad things happen. And they often happen during retirement, when you have the least ability to recover. If you stop working the moment you have just enough, you're one bad year away from trouble.
📚🎧 Brian's book Time Freedom is available for pre-order! Pre-order and get the audiobook free... instant access today, paper copy in September. Normally that takes three copies, but for my listeners, just one.
timefreedombook.com | code: PAUL -
Q&A Highlights
How does a 4-fund portfolio compare to a 10-fund portfolio?
What is the best way to invest for a child’s future?
Is it too late to use a diversified strategy like the 10-fund portfolio at age 50?
Can I create and test my own custom portfolio using your tools?
How should I invest during periods of inflation or uncertainty?
What are some recommended fund options available at Schwab?
Is a portfolio combining large-cap value and small-cap blend a good approach?
Are there good alternatives to intermediate-term bonds?
Who are some trustworthy voices in personal finance and investing?
What is your opinion on separately managed accounts (SMAs)?Key Takeaway
Long-term investment success is driven by asset allocation, discipline, and consistency—not complexity. A simple, well-structured portfolio that you can maintain through market cycles is often the most effective approach.
Listen to the individual questions here.
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Paul Merriman is dedicated to helping do-it-yourself investors build portfolios they can stick with for life. In this episode, he shares what he believes is the closest thing to a perfect long-term equity strategy he's ever seen.
Paul traces the evolution of index investing — from John Bogle's cap-weighted S&P 500 funds to the academic research of Fama and French, whose factor-based work showed that small cap value, large cap value, and other equity asset classes have historically outperformed the broad market over time.
For years, the best factor-based funds from Dimensional Fund Advisors (DFA) were only available through select advisors. That changed when Avantis launched its ETF lineup in 2019, followed by DFA's own ETFs — putting institutional-quality, factor-based investing within reach of every self-directed investor.
Paul introduces a recommended ETF list spanning 10 equity asset classes across both fund families, explains the key differences between DFA and Avantis, and makes the case for owning both. He also covers where to buy them and why Fidelity's fractional shares make it easy to start with any dollar amount.
Key topics: Factor-based vs. traditional index funds · Accessing DFA and Avantis ETFs · The case for owning both · Simplifying rebalancing with M1 Finance
The Q&A Paul references was recorded separately.
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In this episode, we explore how flexible (variable) withdrawal strategies can strengthen your retirement plan—and why fixed, inflation-adjusted withdrawals may increase risk over time.
Using detailed distribution tables—including Table F1.3 (flexible withdrawals) and comparisons to
Table D1.3 (fixed withdrawals)—Paul walks through real historical outcomes across decades to show how adjusting withdrawals based on market performance can improve long-term results.
You’ll learn:
Fixed vs. flexible withdrawal strategies
Insights from Tables F1.3, F1.4 vs. D1.3, D1.4
How flexibility helps defend against bear markets
The role of diversification and low-cost investing
Why oversaving creates powerful financial freedom
If you’re planning for retirement or already taking withdrawals, this episode may offer a smarter, more adaptable approach to generating income.
Watch Youtube
Boot Camp 7 page
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In Boot Camp #6, Paul Merriman walks through real historical data starting in 1970 to test what happens when retirees withdraw 3%, 4%, or 5% from a $1 million portfolio — adjusted for inflation — across some of the toughest market conditions in history.
This episode covers:
The difference between retiring with “enough” and “more than enough”
How inflation quietly turns $30,000 into $130,000+ over 30 years
What happens if you retire into a bear market
Why 1% more in withdrawals can cost millions
S&P 500 vs. a globally diversified four-fund strategy
How diversification impacts lifetime income and legacy outcomes
The real risk of sequence of returns in retirement
Why some portfolios ran out of money — and others didn’t
You’ll hear side-by-side comparisons of:
100% S&P 500 portfolios
40/60, 50/50, and 60/40 stock-bond mixes
A worldwide four-fund equity strategy
Fixed inflation-adjusted withdrawals over 30 years
The results may surprise you — especially when comparing 3%, 4%, and 5% withdrawal rates.
If you're approaching retirement, already retired, or helping someone make distribution decisions, this episode breaks down the numbers in plain English and shows how small choices can create million-dollar differences.
Next week: the strategy Paul considers the very best distribution method — for investors who retire with more than enough.
Watch Video Here
Catch up on the previous Boot Camp 2026 here
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In Boot Camp #5 of 10, Paul delivers what he believes is the most important session in the series—especially for new and early investors (teens, 20s, 30s, and anyone just getting started).
Instead of treating investing like speculation, Paul reframes it as building—or buying—a business over decades.
Using clear, data-driven tables and “fine-tuning” comparisons, he walks through a simple, repeatable plan: start with $1,000 per year (about $83.33/month), increase contributions by 3% annually, and stay invested for 40+ years. You’ll see how long-term outcomes change based on asset allocation (100% stocks vs. 60/40 stocks and bonds), and why diversification can matter when markets go sideways.
Paul also compares an S&P 500-only approach with a globally diversified “worldwide four-fund” strategy (mixing U.S. and international, large and small, value and growth). Along the way, he explains the real power source in early investing: your contributions, not short-term market performance—and why tax-advantaged accounts like a Roth IRA or Roth 401(k) can dramatically increase the impact of compounding over a lifetime.
If you want a practical framework for long-term, low-cost, diversified investing, plus a clear-eyed discussion of volatility, sequence of returns, and retirement withdrawals (including the concept of a 5% annual withdrawal strategy), this episode lays the groundwork.
Why Paul believes this is the most important boot camp session
Investing as building a business (the “portfolio mortgage” analogy)
Starting with $83/month and increasing contributions by 3% annually
Understanding the fine-tuning tables and historical market returns
S&P 500 vs. 60/40 portfolio: balancing growth and volatility
The Worldwide Four-Fund Portfolio and the benefits of deeper diversification
How sequence of returns impacts accumulation and withdrawals
Why you rarely notice individual company failures inside diversified funds
The long-term advantage of Roth IRA / Roth 401(k) compounding
Staying disciplined through crashes, recessions, and sideways markets
Watch Video
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How much should you really have in stocks vs. bonds — and what happens when the market turns south with a vengence?
In Boot Camp #4, we break down the fine-tuning asset allocation tables that show exactly how different combinations of equities and bonds have performed from 1970 through 2025. This episode goes beyond average returns and dives into what investing actually feels like during the worst 3-month, 12-month, and 60-month market declines.
You’ll learn:
Why equities have historically dominated bonds for long-term retirement investing
How the S&P 500 compares to diversified strategies like the Four-Fund portfolio
The real impact of worst-case drawdowns (including 50%+ bear markets)
What happens to a 100% stock portfolio during retirement withdrawals
How 50/50, 60/40, and other stock-bond allocations reduce volatility
Why median returns matter — and why averages can mislead
How to control risk through asset allocation, low costs, tax efficiency, and index investing
We explore real historical data — including the 1973-74 bear market, the 2000-2002 tech crash, and the 2008 financial crisis — to help you understand both accumulation and retirement distribution phases.
Whether you're in your 20s building wealth, in your 50s preparing for retirement, or already retired and managing withdrawals, this episode helps you align your portfolio with your risk tolerance, return needs, and long-term financial goals.
If you want to be a confident do-it-yourself investor — without paying a 1% management fee — this episode gives you the framework to make informed decisions about stocks, bonds, diversification, and risk control.
Watch Boot Camp #4 video
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Welcome to Bootcamp #3 of the Sound Investing Series with Paul Merriman — where real investing data meets practical long-term strategy. 📈 In this session, Paul breaks down the performance of diversified portfolios vs. the S&P 500 using decades of historical data going back to 1970. You’ll learn how different combinations of equity asset classes have performed in good markets, bad markets, and everything in between.
📊 What You’ll Learn in This Video:
• A deep dive into the Sound Investing Portfolios and how they work for DIY investors
• Historical returns of 2-, 4- and multi-fund strategies compared to the S&P 500
• Why diversification matters and how it can reduce risk and improve returns
• How different portfolios performed in tough decades like the 1970s and 2000s
• Practical takeaways for long-term investors, retirees, and those choosing equity allocationsWhether you’re a beginner or experienced investor, this Bootcamp episode gives you real numbers and evidence-based insights to help shape your portfolio strategy with confidence.
💡 Topics Covered:
✔ Sound Investing Portfolios explained
✔ Risk vs. return comparison
✔ Historical performance of diversified portfolios
✔ The role of small-cap & value stocks
✔ Why a 2-fund strategy can compete with the S&P 500
✔ How to think about risk in real market conditions🔗 Useful Resources & Tables - https://www.paulmerriman.com/sound-investing-portfolios-2026
To follow along with the charts, tables, and data Paul references during the presentation, check the pinned links and video notes.📈 Perfect For:
✔ DIY investors
✔ Retirement planners
✔ Anyone curious about portfolio diversification
✔ Investors who want to avoid common mistakes📩 Questions? Paul encourages you to leave comments and reach out — he often uses viewer questions in future episodes!
➡️ Don’t forget to subscribe for more deep-dive investing education and future Bootcamp episodes from the Merriman Financial Education Foundation: Paul Merriman’s mission is to help you make more money with less risk and more peace of mind.
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