Afleveringen
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On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome Marc Chaikin back to the show. Marc is a 50-year Wall Street veteran and the founder of our corporate affiliate, Chaikin Analytics. He also created a popular Wall Street indicator that appears in every Bloomberg and Reuters terminal in the world.
Marc kicks off the show by describing why he's so bullish in this presidential-election year. He explains that we're now entering a "sweet spot" for the market, and if there are any election surprises, that would be even more reason to buy in. Marc also lists off some sectors that he's bullish on today, especially in mid-cap stocks. These areas of the market aren't making headlines, but they're seeing steady gains and present attractive buying opportunities. (1:38)
Next, Marc shares his thoughts on the current AI boom and compares it with the introduction of the Netscape web browser in 1995. He discusses profit margins versus valuations, the potential loss of jobs due to AI, and the usefulness of large language models like ChatGPT. According to Marc, there are companies across a variety of industry groups that are going to benefit from AI. Investors just have to find them. (15:45)
Lastly, Marc shares all the details about his newest, most personal newsletter service that will be launching soon. He explains that it's going to focus on finding "hidden gems" – mid-cap or small-cap stocks that are undiscovered but have great valuations. As Marc says, "The focus is prospecting for gold nuggets." With his custom Power Gauge system by his side, Marc is going to find hidden winners – in a range of sectors – that are set to profit from the AI revolution. (34:32)
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On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome author Alex Epstein to the
show. Alex has written several books advocating for the use of fossil fuels, including his most
recent work, Fossil Future. The self-described "energy-freedom advocate" joins the podcast
to challenge the popular climate-change narrative and provide more context for the crucial
role fossil fuels play in society.
Alex kicks things off by weighing in on the debate around climate change and the effects of
fossil fuels. He argues that the benefits of using fossil fuels far outweigh the negatives and
that, in many cases, energy can be used to overcome any adverse effects. Alex also breaks
down the myth of unsustainability, the anti-human bias implicit in environmentalism, and
the incorrect belief that more folks die of climate-related catastrophes today than in the
past. (2:38)
Next, Alex discusses his impact with politicians and lawmakers. He explains that 200 major
political offices use his content to direct policy and become more informed on energy topics.
Alex then shares his opinion on climate change, pointing out that we're currently in a climate
renaissance and that the Earth has never been more livable for human beings. He brings up
geoengineering as a way to cool the climate, asserts that the negative environmental
impacts are severely overblown, and emphasizes the crucial role energy plays in the
economy. (21:30)
Finally, Alex talks about climate-change rhetoric dominating in elections, the harm that tech
companies have done by blatantly lying about being 100% renewable, and why humans
should take pride in the fact that we're progressing as a species and learning to use the
Earth in new ways. He puts the anti-impact perspective into both a philosophical and
historical context, noting that primitive religions believed "sinning" against nature had dire
consequences. (34:19) -
Zijn er afleveringen die ontbreken?
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On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome their colleague John Engel
to the podcast. John is the lead equity analyst on the Stansberry Innovations Report
newsletter, where he finds companies that are revolutionizing their respective industries
with cutting-edge technology. He also works on Prosperity Investor, a newsletter that
focuses on opportunities in the health care sector.
John kicks off the show by detailing the new Biosecure Act that's currently moving through
Congress. Its purpose is to limit China's access to U.S. biological information. As he explains,
this legislation is going to disrupt the industry, hurt biotech companies, and possibly even
bankrupt the smaller players. But, conversely, it's going to allow other contract development
and management organizations to replace Chinese ones, creating massive opportunities for
investors. John also shares how he got his start in the biotech field at a fermentation lab and
as a molecular biologist before shifting to the world of finance. (2:19)
Next, John talks about the pandemic, vaccines, and the current bear market in biotech. He
mentions one big story in biotech that he believes isn't getting enough attention – bispecific
antibodies. This development allows one drug to hit two targets, so patients no longer have
to receive two different drugs for treatment. This leads to a conversation about gene editing,
personalized medicine, and rare diseases. (22:01)
Finally, John delves into AI, Nvidia, and the "hype cycle" surrounding the technology. He
points out that companies are desperate to use AI to their advantage, but for many of them,
there's no use for it in their business. Plus, John discusses "advanced general intelligence,"
which involves systems that can reason like human beings. (42:27) -
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome Dave Collum back to the
show. Dave is a professor of chemistry at Cornell University and associate editor of the
Journal of Organic Chemistry. He's outspoken about many topics and issues ranging from
finance to politics and everything in between. And he brings this same no-holds-barred
attitude to today's podcast. Dave starts off by discussing the link between vaccines and autism, why "live" attenuated vaccines are better than "dead" ones, and the effects of the COVID-19 vaccine. He specifically mentions how children in the U.S. receive about 72 vaccinations during
childhood, while children in Europe receive only three. He also argues that the war in
Ukraine is a direct result of NATO interfering and forcing Russian President Vladimir Putin's
hand. (5:31)
Next, Dave talks all about the U.S. government. He breaks down why the U.S. has never
supported burgeoning democracies abroad and why it's a better move geopolitically for the
country to work with a single leader or a select few in power. He compares President Joe
Biden with former President Donald Trump and asserts that Biden wouldn't be able to make
tough calls in a time of crisis. After, Dave makes his case for why we're headed for a 40-year
bear market that will drag down Americans' standard of living. (24:27)
Lastly, Dave contends that AI risks taking the human element out of everything, dampening
creativity, and cluttering scientific literature. He then discusses the role of pedophilia in geopolitics and the prevalence of child trafficking. And he leaves younger listeners with some sage financial advice. (45:39)
Dan and Corey close the show by discussing the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge – the core personal consumption expenditures ("PCE") index. The newest core PCE data shows that inflation has stabilized at 2.8% for the past three readings. Even though this is down from much higher levels in 2022, Dan and Corey point out that everyday consumers are still struggling with far higher prices while their paychecks don't keep pace. (1:11:12) -
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey are joined by Chris DeMuth Jr. Chris is a co-founder and managing partner of hedge fund Rangeley Capital. He invests in
mispriced securities with limited downside and corporate events that unlock value for shareholders. Chris kicks things off by explaining what event-driven investing is, how he uses it, and how
the concept of "counterparty selection" is involved. He also breaks down what demutualization and remutualization are and how there are numerous opportunities in the banking sector today to deploy these strategies. According to Chris, many small-cap
community banks out there are attractive in terms of valuation versus large caps. (3:11)
Next, Chris describes the U.S. Treasury Department's "inept, corrupt, and profligate" Emergency Capital Investment Program ("ECIP"). He gives two in-depth examples of ECIP bank stocks that were trading for far less than they were worth – Bay Community Bancorp and Ponce Financial. And he discusses why investors who got in early enough will profit from them greatly. (16:03)
Lastly, Chris names three stocks that he's excited about right now and details the specifics of each one. The first is a tax-efficient real estate and financial-services conglomerate trading at a discount to its asset value. The second is a Russian-owned mining company operating in Venezuela that should soon benefit from litigation against the Venezuelan government. And the final one is a hospice provider with a lot of potential for a private-equity shake-up and then subsequent acquisition by a larger health care company. Plus, you won't want to miss Chris' answer to the final question, where he explains how you can gain an edge as an investor simply by researching topics you're genuinely interested in. (29:44)
Dan and Corey close the show by discussing Nvidia's recent blowout earnings, including its 262% revenue gain. Since the company provides the "picks and shovels" of AI, it's benefiting
massively from the boom in this space. This leads Dan and Corey to compare AI stocks with Internet stocks during the dot-com bubble, speculate on what could happen next, and
explore the disconnect between the markets and the economy. (57:56) -
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome their colleague Bryan
Beach back to the show. Bryan is the editor of Stansberry Venture Value and a senior analyst
on Stansberry's Investment Advisory. Bryan kicks the show off by discussing the GameStop
meme-stock craze and the deep-value market dynamics that were at play during the whole
debacle. He argues that the "dumb money" folks (such as Keith Gill) got a bad rep and the
self-titled "smart money" folks weren't very smart. (3:13)
Next, Bryan talks about the bubbles in special purpose acquisition companies ("SPACs") and
Software as a Service ("SaaS"). He points out that the pendulum can quickly swing from
overloved to overhated. Bryan shares that, because of this, he's still finding winners in the
SPAC scrap heap and he believes SaaS valuations are far too low today. He also explains how
retail investors got clobbered by the smart money on SPACs and why cannabis stocks
present such a good opportunity now with the impending reclassification of marijuana.
(17:33)
Lastly, Bryan emphasizes the importance of stop losses and "guideposts" since they take the
emotion out of investing. This leads to a discussion of Amazon and its many drawdowns over
the course of its trading history that would have stopped investors out. After, Bryan brings
up small-cap restaurant-software company Par Technology and why he has so much hope for
its future performance. (28:02)
Dan and Corey close things out by talking more about the resurgence of meme stocks –
GameStop and AMC Entertainment, in particular – and what it means for the market as a
whole. Plus, they talk about this new era of inflation we're in, the worst-case scenario of
rebounding inflation, and the long-lasting consequences of low interest rates. (55:39) -
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome Lyn Alden to the show. Lyn is an independent analyst, bestselling author, and founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy – an investment research service for both retail and institutional investors. She kicks the podcast off by describing how her background in engineering has influenced her macroeconomic investing style. She explains why she became so interested in macroeconomics in the first place and why 2017 was a turning point for the U.S. economy. Lyn also talks about fiscal dominance – or when fiscal deficits and federal debts are large enough that they start reducing a central bank's options. She puts this in the historical context of the 1970s and clarifies why inflation and interest rates are so complexly intertwined today. (4:39)
Next, Lyn shares her outlook for the U.S. economy, including higher-than-baseline inflation for the foreseeable future and the country being in a similar situation to emerging markets. She discusses areas of the market where fiscal dominance has been appearing over the past few years, how the 2010s taught investors the wrong lesson, why the U.S. may experience the same economic troubles that Japan is facing right now, and the divergence between sectors going through recessions versus those that benefit from deficits. (16:42)
Lastly, Lyn cautions listeners against using the traditional 60/40 portfolio in inflationary environments like today's and instead urges them to prioritize energy, precious metals, and hard assets. She also breaks down why she finds Latin America so attractive today (particularly Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico) and gives an in-depth explanation of how technology impacts money. (34:03)
Dan and Corey close things out by discussing the backlash to Argentine President Javier Milei's economic shake-up, including his devaluing the peso against the U.S. dollar and laying off thousands of government workers. Plus, they share their thoughts on the latest speculative meme craze – closed-end fund Destiny Tech100 (DXYZ) – and what it means for the broader market. (54:28)
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On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey are joined by the founder and president of Chisholm Exploration, Cactus Schroeder. Cactus kicks off the conversation by describing the current economics of the oil industry, why rig counts are deceptive, what's happening with the Haynesville Shale and Marcellus Shale, and the upside in natural gas. He also explains why the Barnett Shale has become so attractive, how Chisholm Exploration differs from the oil majors, and how these larger companies essentially control the price of oil. (4:18)
Next, Cactus discusses why his company prefers oil to natural gas, earthquakes as a side effect of drilling, and how the Biden administration has been hampering exploration and pipeline development. He also details his experience in the Eastern Shelf region, including both good and bad wells and royalty interests. (21:52)
Lastly, Cactus covers the oil major he finds the most interesting today, the green-energy movement, and what's on the horizon for oil. He brings up Saudi Arabia cutting oil production in an effort to make prices reach $100 per barrel, the consequences of the war in Gaza, and the ongoing fight between land ownership and mineral rights in different states. (31:03)
Dan and Corey close things out by discussing the consequences of the Drug Enforcement Administration moving to reclassify marijuana as a Schedule III drug. They analyze what has
been happening with cannabis stocks since the announcement and the tax implications behind the move. Plus, they talk about Starbucks' recent disappointing earnings report and what weight-loss drugs becoming more available could mean for the economy and certain stocks. (53:32) -
David Trainer, the founder and CEO of New Constructs, joins the show. He kicks off the conversation by describing how his company takes value investing to the next level with AI. He explains that the days of buying stocks and holding them forever are gone. Today's investing landscape requires investors to be more agile, and AI helps with this. David specifically mentions how he uses AI to sort through millions of financial filings, footnotes, and data points to give him an edge and produce better results. However, he warns that AI is only as good as the data that goes into it. (3:49)
Then, David talks in depth about how humans are still involved in the investing process, including making decisions when the AI is unsure how to interpret certain findings. He breaks down how New Constructs' technology is giving clients a competitive advantage and augmenting the rest of their strategy. Plus, David discusses the importance of using both technicals and fundamentals when investing, and he shares why expectations matter so much to valuation. (14:34)
Lastly, David names the two sectors he finds most attractive and two that folks should avoid. This segues into a conversation about a recent pump-and-dump scheme used to take advantage of retail investors, why the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission doesn't take action even when it should, and the damage done by years of low interest rates. (33:35)
Dan and Corey close things out by discussing inflation and the hotter-than-expected numbers for the personal consumption expenditures index. They cover unrealistic investor expectations for rate cuts, the government's misplaced priorities, and the very real consequences of this persistent inflation on workers and small businesses. (51:20)
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David Daglio, the chief investment officer and global investment strategist of wealth-
advisory firm TwinFocus, joins the show. He kicks things off by describing himself as a
contrarian, and he explains that understanding who you are as a person will lead to the best
investing results. After, he goes into detail on how TwinFocus looks for creative "straw hat"
solutions that the market isn't seeing. Plus, he talks about risk premiums, the current
opportunity in natural gas, and the 30-year discount in gold-mining stocks. (3:29)
Next, David discusses the advantages and disadvantages of working at a large firm versus
being an individual investor. He shares that individual investors have the advantage of not
being overloaded with information, plus they're their own boss and can make their own
decisions. David also details the three conditions TwinFocus looks for before jumping into an
investment, the importance of recognizing your own intellectual biases, and how market
skepticism can be a huge opportunity. (15:29)
Lastly, David talks about "net-net" companies in the biotech sector that are trading for less
than their total assets... he breaks down what capital imbalance is and how to spot it... and
he explains that the savviest investors try to be like Spock from Star Trek, valuing facts over
feelings. (28:49)
Dan and Corey close out the podcast by discussing the Stansberry Research editorial
meeting that happened last week. This meeting brings Stansberry's editors and analysts
together to discuss different investing ideas and pertinent world news. One of the hot topics
at the meeting was the presidential election in November. Dan and Corey emphasize that
the best investors keep politics out of their investing decisions and stick to their core
strategy regardless of which candidate takes office. (49:22) -
Gary Mishuris of Silver Ring Value Partners talks about today's market being one of the most challenging periods for bottom-up investing since 2007. In terms of the quality of a business
versus its stock price, there isn't a lot of opportunity right now. But he emphasizes that transparency and candor with clients is essential, as is prioritizing the long-term process
over short-term performance. (5:19)
Next, Gary describes what sets Silver Ring Value apart from other fund managers. He shares why he left the "sausage factory" of larger firms behind, how his firm makes money for
clients rather than off of clients, and how his unique temperament and behavioral models allow him to make better investing decisions. (14:38)
Gary also goes into detail on the psychology behind investing and compares it with a game of poker. He talks about trying to avoid making mistakes, continuously learning from past
errors, the importance of having guardrails in place, and cutting your losses. (21:44)
Then, Gary explains why you should never be ashamed to change your mind, even when you haven't received any new information. It's OK to reanalyze the same set of facts and admit
that you were wrong, and he cites several examples of investors who have learned and grown from their past mistakes. (31:21)
Lastly, Dan and Corey discuss the consumer price index and gold. Inflation came in hotter than expected, while gold has broken out to new highs. Dan and Corey speculate on how long gold's bull run can last. Plus, they detail gold being a good hedge for retirement against the government's money-printing addiction. (48:18) -
Dan and Corey kick off the show by discussing inflation staying persistently higher, rampant government spending and money-printing, and the repercussions of the Federal Reserve's decade-plus of low interest rates. (0:41)
Next, Cambria Investment Management's Meb Faber joins the conversation to talk about the exchange-traded funds ("ETFs") at Cambria and why the team focuses on shareholder yield when picking stocks for these ETFs. He breaks down the importance of shareholder yield in mega-bubble markets like today's and urges investors to pay more attention to it. (24:25)
Meb then discusses managing risk on a portfolio level, including focusing on quality and value. He also covers why emerging and foreign markets are so attractive today, the opportunity in fixed-income investments like bonds and Treasury bills, and how higher interest rates have changed the game. (38:21)
Finally, Meb describes himself as a value investor and shares which areas of the economy he's most concerned about. He talks about inflation driving commodities sharply higher, gold hitting new highs, and why investing at all-time highs can still be a smart choice. (56:43)
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Dan and Corey kick off the show by reviewing the most recent PCE number, what's
happening with inflation, and the current state of the economy. (0:41)
Next, real estate expert and entrepreneur George Gammon joins the conversation and
explains how he became a self-described "macro addict" without any formal education in the
world of finance or economics. Plus, he discusses why he considers himself a libertarian and
why most investors and billionaires would fall into this category, even if they don't self-
identify as such. (21:59)
Further, George describes how his investment style is influenced by being a libertarian. By
default, his view is that the government is always going to do the wrong thing, resulting in
unintended, net-negative consequences. George also goes into detail on the similarities
between value investing and trend following. He argues that successful value investors are
always looking for a catalyst so that they can catch the trend at its very beginning stages,
while stereotypical investors are happy to catch the middle portion of the trend. (34:16)
Lastly, George explores the biggest differences between retail investors and professional
investors. He details the strategy that the best hedge-fund managers use: starting with a
macro view and then looking at the fundamentals and the narrative later. George
emphasizes that these experts spend most of their time deciding how to position themselves
and using asymmetry to stack the odds in their favor like in a game of blackjack. (46:32) -
Dan and Corey kick off the show by arguing against the Federal Reserve potentially cutting rates this year. They point out that inflation is persistently volatile, gas prices are soaring and hurting everyday consumers, and the Fed is "pretending that everything is OK," according to Corey. Dan also brings up the fact that 2024 being an election year may have something to do with this. (0:43)
Next, Stansberry Venture Technology editor Dave Lashmet joins the conversation to discuss the biotech industry. He explains that he doesn't see biotech as a sector, and rather he looks bottom up at biotech companies to find a drug that will have a macroeconomic effect. Because only 6% of drugs that start a Phase I trial succeed, he says being selective is crucial. Dave also describes the three phases of drug testing and the importance of efficacy and safety data. (17:55)
After, Dave talks all things weight-loss drugs. He reflects on how he knew Ozempic was going to be a blockbuster drug from his boots-on-the-ground research, the incredible room for growth in this area, and the unprecedented amounts of money that biotech companies are spending on factories to develop these weight-loss drugs. (24:36)
Further, Dave discusses why the obesity epidemic has worsened over the decades and how exactly weight-loss drugs work to increase metabolism and suppress appetite. It involves something he calls the "winter switch." Plus, Dave brings up the U.S. Food and Drug Administration approving these drugs for the purpose of reducing strokes and heart attacks by nearly 20%. (32:40)
Lastly, Dave talks about the widespread economic implications behind weight-loss drugs and other areas of the market that could be impacted, such as the airline industry. However, Dave emphasizes once again that any mass changes are still years away due to supply constraints. (41:20)
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Dan and Corey kick off the show by discussing both bubbles and "anti-bubble" stocks. Dan
mentions how the S&P 500 Index's cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, with data
going back to 1871, is currently in the top 1%. He even believes this is the biggest mega-
bubble in all of recorded history. (0:41)
Next, Porter & Co. analyst Erez Kalir joins the conversation and shares his financial
philosophy. He talks about investing legends who have influenced his investing style, the
importance of avoiding labels, and how successful investing is similar to using a Swiss Army
knife. Plus, Erez explains the yin and yang of macroeconomics versus security-specific
fundamentals and how there are extreme periods where one can entirely dominate the
other. (13:00)
After, Erez goes into detail about biotech – the sector's history in the stock market, how it's
shaped by interest rates, and how you can find companies trading at an extreme discount
with negative enterprise value. He argues that not being able to time the markets is merely
a myth, and he shares the seven factors he uses to evaluate whether a biotech stock is
worth buying. (21:59)
Lastly, Erez explains why the conditions are right for biotech stocks today. He covers the
sector being hated and how this gives savvy investors a chance to break away from the herd and profit. (38:36) -
Dan and Corey kick off the show by discussing famed economist Nouriel "Dr. Doom" Roubini
and his current bullish stance. They explore whether Dr. Doom is correct in his optimism, if
gold's new all-time highs are here to stay, and what could happen next with bitcoin. (0:41)
Next, Stansberry Research editor Brett Eversole joins the conversation and talks about
where he thinks stocks will go this year thanks to the election. After, he analyzes the overall
health of the market using several different metrics, urges investors to invest based on the
size of a company's market capitalization, gives his thoughts on whether small-cap stocks
can catch up to the rest of the market, and reviews moments of extreme volatility in history.
(16:49)
Further, Brett describes a shareholder yield fund and how it works. He points out that if you
buy companies that return a lot of cash to shareholders, those companies tend to go up a lot
over time. He also discusses the strategies he uses in his True Wealth publication to find
winning stocks, buy in at the right time, and protect capital. (29:35)
Finally, Brett explains why he isn't investing in individual Chinese stocks today, but he
provides one unique way to still profit from China that you may have never heard of. (47:15 -
Dan and Corey kick off the show by discussing Warren Buffett's recent letter to Berkshire
Hathaway shareholders. In it, he honored his late colleague and friend Charlie Munger, plus
gave updates on some of Berkshire's businesses. Dan and Corey also cover Apple switching
its resources over from electric vehicles to artificial intelligence. (0:41)
Next, Rick Rule – president and CEO of Rule Investment Media – joins the conversation. He
goes into depth on models, such as the discounted cash flow model. He talks about the flaws
with models, why models are only useful for apples-to-apples comparisons, and how a model
can be used on exploration companies or similar companies that don't have revenues.
(24:32)
After, Rick goes into detail on the uranium market. He describes why uranium companies
have mothballed production, what makes uranium so unique in the natural resources world,
the differences between the spot and term markets, and how to interpret uranium
companies' financials. (33:18)
Lastly, Rick calls out several commodities that present good investing opportunities today.
He describes one of them as "stupidly cheap"... another he says is hated by investors and its
market is in disarray... and the final two, he explains, are being sold off because of an
incorrect belief that we don't need internal-combustion engines anymore. Rick even goes
one step further and namedrops specific companies that could be worth looking into to take
advantage of these price discounts. (49:15) -
Dan and Corey kick off the show by discussing new highs in the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index, Japan's Nikkei 225 Index, and chipmaker Nvidia's stock. They analyze what these new highs mean, whether the U.S. is still in a mega-bubble, what's happening with the Japanese economy, and if Nvidia can continue its outperformance. (0:41)
Next, Chaikin Analytics Chief Market Strategist Pete Carmasino joins the conversation and describes his investing style. He notes that he mainly looks at price. By using technical analysis and studying the fundamentals, trends, and the relative strength versus the market, he can decipher whether a stock is overbought. (20:28)
Further, Pete talks about the importance of risk management and taking advantage of tactical moves. He gives investors advice for how to determine when something is a tactical sell or a tactical buy, discusses the relationship between technicals and fundamentals, and explains why he looks at both offensive and defensive sectors for investing opportunities.(25:55)
Pete then details why he's never too bullish or bearish at any given time, plus how the Chaikin Analytics Power Gauge system helps him find potential winners. He describes his process for interpreting the signals and discusses the fundamentals he needs to see to be interested in a stock. (39:47)
Lastly, Pete hammers home the importance of rates – particularly the unemployment rate, since the Federal Reserve uses it to determine the federal-funds rate. He also shares the top five subsectors currently and names a few stocks within those sectors that could be worth keeping an eye on. (51:15)
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Dan and Corey kick things off by discussing Lyft shares soaring after a numeric typo in the company's earnings report, market volatility after the latest consumer price index release, the possibility of "Volmageddon" 2.0, and the harms of passive investing. When speaking about all the trouble brewing in the markets today, Dan notes, "Risks don't register until they happen." (0:41)
Next, Stansberry Research editor Mike DiBiase joins the conversation and shares his concerns about the bond market. Specifically, he believes that we're in the early stages of the next credit crisis. He goes into detail about why we're overdue for such an event, which specific indicators are signaling turbulent times ahead for the market, and whether the Federal Reserve could do anything to lessen the inevitable damage. (24:53)
Mike also analyzes the stock market and how it paints a bleak picture. As he explains, corporate earnings declined in 2023 even though many companies had a fantastic year and posted incredible numbers. And despite this "earnings recession," stocks are still trading at all-time highs. (32:25)
Then, Mike covers why he believes the struggling U.S. consumer is going to usher in the next credit crisis, how today's market is so similar to 2008's, and why corporate bonds still make for good investments. (35:38)
Lastly, Mike discusses how this new era of high interest rates has irreversibly altered the investing landscape that people have grown accustomed to over the past 40 years. He explains that stocks were the favored investment when the Fed was keeping rates near zero, but bonds are back on a more equal playing field thanks to high interest rates. (48:34)
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Dan and Corey kick things off by discussing bitcoin hitting a new multiyear high. They also critique a popular bullish argument for bitcoin, which is based off the U.S. dollar collapsing. After, they talk about the S&P 500 Index surpassing 5,000 for the first time ever and whether this level is sustainable in the long term. (0:40)
Next, Harley Bassman of Simplify Asset Management joins the conversation and explains a concept called "convexity." He covers the three kinds of risk in bond investing, why short convexity is always lurking during market downturns, and why negative convexity is so difficult for investors to process. (24:53)
Harley also goes into detail on mortgage-backed securities funds. He describes what mortgage bonds are, why they yield more than corporate bonds, and how the Federal Reserve plays a huge role in all of this. (32:20)
Lastly, Harley talks about Simplify and how it offers a unique service by jamming derivatives of all kinds (futures, options, etc.) into ETFs so civilians can invest in them. He also discusses what it was like working at Merrill Lynch during the great financial crisis, gives general investing advice, and explains what pin risk is. (48:55)
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