Afleveringen
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Hemma Kilawan, a member of the SSG team, analyzes whether and when Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce will get engaged.
Timestamps
0:40: Pratik explains why SSG is covering Taylor Swift markets and how they relate to political gambling
3:50: Pratik thanks a Patreon sponsor and why his contribution is important
8:15: Interview with Hemma begins
9:28: Hemma's impressions of political gambling
9:58: Can political gambling reach beyond its target demographics?
11:12: Taylor Swift as a political actor
16:18: Polymarket markets on Taylor Swift
16:59: Is the Swift-Kelce relationship real?
19:04: How to research Taylor Swift relationship gossip
20:56: Swift-Kelce relationship timeline
24:34: Swift's past relationships
27:57: The Eras Tour
31:23: Kelce's public statements
32:02: Do they want kids?
35:23: Trading strategies for the Swift engagement market
40:13: Will Taylor Swift be pregnant this year?
44:48: How political betting spurs interest in topicsSUPPORT US
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Doug Campbell returns to SSG to provide an update on the war in Ukraine.
Doug is the founder and CEO of Insight Prediction, an expert on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and a whale trader himself.
Doug argues that the war has become a stalemate and provides advice on how to trade on this reality.
0:42: Doug's background
0:52: Doug's SSG interview about his time in Russia https://youtu.be/BZ0BbIbMcYg?si=Hr-jrGmlmi3LX9O21:11: Doug's talk on war markets at Manifest https://youtu.be/YrhsSohbRO4?si=07mDDuDKZRE2i9Y4
1:32: Manifest conference 2024
4:33: Interview begins
5:17: High-level update on the war
13:23: Ukrainian intelligence before the war
14:37: U.S. intelligence estimates on Ukraine
18:12: Optimism on both sides of the word
19:21: Sanctions against Russia
22:58: Odds of Putin being assassinated
24:23: Russian involvement in Israel-Hamas conflict
25:14: Impact of a Trump victory
26:02: Western aid to Ukraine
28:01: Odds of Putin leaving office
29:48: Odds of Russian nuclear escalation
31:00: How to trade ceasefire markets
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Zijn er afleveringen die ontbreken?
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Saul Munn is one of the world's leading experts on building the forecasting community. He is the Co-Founder of Optic Forecasting and the Lead Organizer of the Manifest conference.
In Part 1, Saul joins the show to discuss which communities comprise the emerging forecasting community.
In Part 2, Brian Darling, former counsel to Senator Rand Paul, returns to assess the Tennessee Senator Marsha Blackburn's odds of becoming Trump's VP pick.
In Part 3, Nathan Young returns to the show to advise on how to short AI hype in betting markets.
0:00: Pratik introduces the segment with Saul Munn
1:24: Saul's disclaimer on conflicts of interest1:56: Manifest Conference 2024
3:26: Intro for Brian Darling segment on the GOP VP nominee market
4:16: How to trade on the GOP VP nomination
5:08: Intro to interview with Nathan Young
9:03: Interview with Saul begins
9:26: The importance of community in the political betting space
11:00: Optic forecasting clubs
12:44: How Saul became interested in the forecasting community
13:25: Manifest Conference
13:46: Diversity in the forecasting community
14:32: Who is in the broader forecasting community?
14:56: Destiny's role in the forecasting community
16:57: The types of people who are interested in forecasting
19:44: Differences between Washington politics and the forecasting community
20:40: Differences between the political betting community and the forecasting community
21:18: Communities interested in forecasting
21:47: Communities that could be interested in forecasting
24:34: Why some communities resist forecasting
28:20: Segment with Brian Darling begins
28:27: Kim Reynolds's VP odds
29:06: Marsha Blackburn's VP odds
30:05: Swing state VP contenders
31:26: Segment with Nathan Young begins
31:59: Taxing bad predictions
33:46: Shorting AI enthusiasm in political betting markets
34:47: Irrational pricing in Time Person of the Year markets40:12: Hedge funds and AI
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Part 1: Washington-based lobbyist and former Rand Paul counsel Brian Darling returns to the show to discuss Trump's VP selection.
Part 2: Mick Bransfield, an expert on prediction market regulation, returns to discuss reports that PredictIt is pursuing a settlement with the CFTC.
0:57: Current market odds on Republican VP nominee
3:44: Pratik introduces Bransfield segment
4:37: Trump interview on his VP choice with Maria Bartiromo
8:28: Darling interview begins
10:00: Why Noem is the front-runner to be Trump's VP
11:49: Noem's history with Trump15:15: Noem's alleged affair with Corey Lewandowski
16:26: Odds Trump will pick a woman running mate17:26: The Republican Party's role in the VP selection
18:32: Trump's perspective on loyalty
21:45: Would Noem accept the VP nomination?
22:06: History of people rejecting offers to be VP
22:50: What price to pay for Noem yes shares24:29: Why Haley is trading so high
31:42: Elise Stefanik's odds
33:57: Bransfield segment begins
39:03: Signs PredictIt will not pursue a constitutional challenge
Follow SSG on Twitter @ssgamblers
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Dr. Lucas (@Talophex) returns for a deep dive into Donald Trump's health and how it should inform a bet on whether he'll be elected president.
Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter @ssgamblers
0:00: Pratik introduces the episode
1:17: Discoloration of Trump's hand and Trump's alleged body odor
4:17: Interview begins
5:46: Trump's coronary artery disease
6:32: Trump's physique
10:12: Trump's psychology
11:05: Note from Trump's doctor
13:38: Why hasn't Trump had a serious heart condition?
15:06: Trump's genetics
17:46: Is weight protective in old age?
21:00: Trump's cognitive decline
25:29: Trump's OCD
27:00: Trump's purpose in life
29:48: How Trump's legal issues could impact his health
35:00: How to trade on Trump's health
39:52: What to look for to assess Trump's healthFollow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter @ssgamblers
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While Trump appears to hold a commanding lead heading in the Iowa caucuses, second place remains uncertain.
Ben Freeman challenges The Winner for the SSG title belt on the question of who will perform better in the Iowa caucuses: Ron DeSantis or Nikki Haley.
Plus, Pratik Chougule explains the nomination process for the 2024 Golden Modelos.
0:00: Pratik introduces the Iowa caucuses segment
1:38: Pratik explains the nomination process for the 2024 Golden Modelos for Excellence in Political Gambling
4:15: SSG members' only private briefing on Taiwan elections
7:36: Segment on Iowa caucuses begins
8:15: What are SSG title belt challenges
9:20: Ben Freeman on why DeSantis is underpriced for second place in Iowa
12:20: The Winner on why DeSantis isn't likely to place second
13:38: Negotiating the belt challenge
14:10: Pratik's view on why DeSantis has the edge
15:30: Haley's feminism
17:07: Populism and wave politics
18:14: What is Haley's message?
28:30: Haley's lack of endorsements
37:30: Democratic presidential primary
Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter @ssgamblers
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Prediction market enthusiast and effective altruist Nathan Young (@nathanpmyoung) joins the show to discuss the relation of prediction markets and AI. He also discusses Polymarket's market on whether an AI win the $5 million AI Math Olympiad Prize before August and explains why it's unlikely to happen.
Timestamps
0:00: Intro begins
4:00: Interview with Nathan begins. Nathan explains his full-time work in the forecasting industry
6:18: AI and effective altruism
13:25: What exactly is AI and what are its capabilities?
30:49: Polymarket's AI Math Olympiad Prize marketFollow us on Twitter @ssgamblers
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Four Part Episode
Part 1: Dr. Lucas (@talophex) on Biden's health
Part 2: The Winner (@thewinner2875) and Ben Freeman (@benwfreeman1) on whether Vivek Ramaswamy is worth buying as a hedge
Part 3: Mick Bransfield (@mickbransfield) on the CFTC's decision to reject Kalshi's election contracts
Part 4: Nathan Young (@nathanpyoung) on religion and prediction markets
Timestamps
5:08: Interview with Lucas begins
6:39: Biden's cognitive decline
8:49: Biden's physical health
10:20: Biden's aneurysms
13:18: Biden's capacity to run a presidential campaign
15:19: Biden's risk of vaccine injury
18:45: How to trade on Biden's health on Polymarket
20:46: Segment on Ramaswamy begins
21:46: Ben Freeman on fading the online candidate
23:22: Segment on CFTC's Kalshi decision begins
24:21: Commissioner Mersinger's dissent
25:54: State laws on political betting
27:40: Why the CFTC is not main the adversary of political betting
28:14: Legality of the Iowa Electronic Markets
29:47: Kalshi's tried to find a shortcut
30:50: Excerpt of Chougule's speech on black markets
32:22: Segment with Nathan Young begins
32:37: How religion made Young interested in prediction markets
33:10: Forecasters were ahead of the curve on COVID
34:02: Similarities between the rationality and religious communities
38:05: Religious attitudes toward gambling in the UK
40:56: America's religious opposition to political betting
Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter @ssgamblers.
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Three-Part Episode
In Part I, Ben Freeman and SSG Title Belt Champion The Winner review the DeSantis-Newsom debate and discuss whether DeSantis can make a comeback.
In Part II, PlayUSA columnist Steve Friess offers lessons on what the political betting community can learn from how sports betting became mainstream.
In Part III, Mick Bransfield provides theories on why Kalshi pressed ahead with election contracts at the CFTC knowing it didn't have the votes.Timestamps
4:30: Interview with Ben Freeman and The Winner begins
7:49: DeSantis's mannerisms
12:36: Is DeSantis deferring too much to advisors
15:03: Missed opportunities in the DeSantis-Newsom debate
18:42: Market prices on DeSantis and Nikki Haley
25:13: Trump's legal problems
27:23: Can Haley get through the Republican primaries?
30:16: Interview with Friess begins
34:46: Pratik's view on legalizing political betting at the state level
37:19: Interview with Bransfield begins
43:12: Incentives created by Kalshi's investors
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Three-part episode:
(1) Dr. Lucas—the "surgeon general of prediction market Twitter"—joins to discuss Mitch McConnell's health. Why did he "freeze" in public multiple times? Did the Congressional physician cover up his actual condition?
(2) Rule3O3 discusses how large donors approach their political contributions
(3) Jonathan Zubkoff (@zubbybadger) sounds the alarm on the opposition of U.S. Senators to political bettingTimestamps
0:00: Introduction
5:01: Interview with Lucas begins
5:21: How political betting led to Lucas being swatted
8:07: How Lucas got into political betting
9:36: Improvements in political betting websites
10:13: Lucas's medical background
13:20: Polymarket's market on whether Mitch McConnell will resign by the end of the year
13:36: McConnell's freezing episodes
19:58: What is a seizure?
23:29: Did McConnell have a stroke?
24:02: Did the Congressional physician mislead the public about McConnell's condition?
26:41: The state of McConnell's health
29:59: Medications McConnell might be on right now
31:18: How the longshot could win on Polymarket
34:41: Segment with Rule3O3 begins
37:11: Segment with Jonathan Zubkoff begins
Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter @ssgamblers -
Colombia-based trader Ian Bezek (@irbezek) returns to the show to offer some final thoughts on the close and uncertain presidential race in Argentina.
1:32: Ian's thoughts on the final debate between Javier Milei and Sergio Massa
2:10: Ian's advice on Polymarket's margin market
5:20: Interview begins
6:06: Massa's backround
7:43: Massa's political baggage
8:45: Questions about Massa's alleged drug addiction
9:56: Market volatility since the eve of the first round of elections
11:39: Why did polls miss on the first round?
12:49: Milei's shortcomings
14:34: Summary of first round results
15:38: Why so much market volatility?
18:29: How much of Patricia Bullrich's support will go to Milei?
19:57: Argentina's economy
25:41: Milei's extremist statements
27:54: How foreign investors are seeing the election
29:19: Massa overperformed the polls
32:25: Polling
34:52: Ian's predictions and advice
35:50: Pratik's argument for buying Massa
39:18: Stock prices of Milei's former employer
40:58: Implications of a Milei victory for political betting
42:27: Recent elections in South America
Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter: @ssgamblers -
Eurasia expert Kristofer Harrison makes the case for why the odds of an invasion of Armenia by Azerbaijan are much higher than the market price on Polymarket.
3:54: Interview with Harrison begins
5:06: Do hedge funds use political betting insights?
7:10: Background on Armenia and Azerbaijan
7:56: Why there are tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan
12:15: Russia's role in the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict
14:29: Domestic politics in Armenia
15:18: Evidence that Azerbaijan is serious about invading
17:44: Why hasn't Azerbaijan already invaded Armenia?
18:43: Balance of power between Azerbaijan and Armenia
20:37: Have Russia and/orTurkey greenlighted an invasion?
22:08: Will the West stop a war?
24:12: Odds of an invasion
27:24: Influence of the weather in Nagorno-Karabach
29:57: How rogue is Aliyev?
33:43: Religion in Azerbaijan
35:05: How much does Azerbaijan care about international investment?
36:55: How keep up with news related to the Azerbaijan-Armenia market
38:44: Will Putin still be in power by the end of the year?
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Join Star Spangled Gamblers on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/starspangledgamblers/posts
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On the eve of the Kentucky governor's election, a new poll by Emerson suggests that the race could be much closer than initially expected.
SSG Title Belt Champion TheWinner (@thewinner2875) and Dr. Cruse (@predoctit) join the show to make their final predictions.
Although they generally agree in their analyses, they settle on a side bet and a challenge for the SSG Title Belt.
3:20: Main segment begins
4:10: Introduction to Dr. Cruse
6:51: Emerson polling
8:20: Current market prices
12:31: The role of national politics
14:16: Racial politics
17:21: SSG TItle Belt Challenge
23:36: Polling in Kentucky
24:30: Fundraising
25:25: Indicators pointing to a Beshear win
28:30: Limited national attention
31:10: Kentucky governors races as national bellweathers
35:36: Pratik summarizes the discussion
37:15: TheWinner's final margin prediction
37:58: Potential impact of the war in Israel
Trade on Polymarket here: https://polymarket.com/event/will-a-democrat-win-the-kentucky-gubernatorial-election
Follow SSG on Twitter: @ssgamblers -
3-Part Episode
— Keendawg returns to discuss why Andy Beshear, Kentucky's Democratic Governor, is favored for re-election, but why lottos on his Republican challenger might be a good bet
— Pratik reports on new evidence that Kalshi was behind the CFTC's enforcement action against Polymarket
— MagaVacuum explains how to gain a betting edge while traveling to campaign events
Timestamps4:24: Interview with Keendawg begins
4:40: Keendawg's role in founding Star Spangled Gamblers
7:14: Kentucky colonels
9:42: Who is Andy Beshear and why is he the favorite in the KY governor's race?
15:29: Who is Daniel Cameron?
18:20: Counties in Kentucky to watch
21:35: Why Andy Beshear won in 2019
22:14: Cameron's appeal
23:26: Background on KY politics
25:27: Partisan politics in KY
26:54: Lexington-Louisville rivalry
27:42: Davies County
28:47: Segment begins on Kalshi's role in Polymarket
30:18: Former CFTC official Maggie Sklar's comment to the CFTC against Kalshi
34:23: MAGAVacuum's research on communications and political prediction markets
36:00: How to gain an edge by traveling to campaign events
Show Notes
— Sklar's letter to CFTC https://comments.cftc.gov/PublicComments/ViewComment.aspx?id=72703&SearchText=sklar
Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter: @ssgamblers
Follow Pratik Chougule on Twitter: @pjchougule -
After another review with a 30-day public comment period, the CFTC rejected Kalshi's proposal to offer election contracts.
Mick Bransfield and Pratik Chougule do a deep dive into the outpouring of public comments that led to the CFTC's decision.
0:00: Introduction begins
2:14: Kalshi's incentives and how they shape its strategy toward political betting regulation
3:46: Kalshi's policy on transparency
5:27: Kalshi's diverging incentives from the political betting community
7:42: How Pratik's assumptions on political betting regulation differ from those of Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour
13:03: Interview with Mick begins
15:18: Background on the latest 30-day comment period
16:40: Why the CFTC received a flood of comments
17:46: Were the anti-Kalshi comments AI-generated?
18:10: Public Citizen
20:57: Better Markets
21:55: Letter from Representatives John Sarbanes and Jamie Raskin
22:55: Center for American Progress
25:09: Are prediction markets becoming a partisan football?
31:11: Errors and poor analysis in the anti-Kalshi letters
33:41: Kalshi's response
46:40: Why Pratik lost confidence in Kalshi's regulatory approach
Links:
Mick Bransfield's website: https://mickbransfield.com/markets/
Coalition for Political Forecasting: http://coalitionforpoliticalforecasting.org/
Coalition for Political Forecasting comment to CFTC: http://coalitionforpoliticalforecasting.org/coalition-for-political-forecasting-response-to-cftcs-request-for-public-comments-on-questions-related-to-kalshis-self-certified-congressional-control-contracts/ -
After listening to our recent episode about calls in the forecasting community to cancel him, Richard Hanania offered to appear on the show. Richard and Pratik Chougule discuss:
— Cancel culture in the rationalist community
— The conservative judiciary and how it could legalize prediction markets
— The odds of Vivek Ramaswamy and Donald Trump to secure the GOP nomination
— Balancing the incentives of being a forecaster and a pundit
3:25: Interview begins
4:14: Richard's new book The Origins of Woke and his association with Vivek Ramaswamy
7:00: Richard responds to those in the forecasting community who want to cancel him
8:12: How cancel culture is changing
10:13: Manifest Conference
11:12: Market-based responses to cancel culture
14:27: GOP nominee odds
15:56: Ramaswamy's views on prediction markets
17:50: PredictIt lawsuit against the CFTC
20:31: Conservative legal movement
32:20: Reasons why election markets became partisan
33:01: Political implications of Trump's legal problems
34:55: Hanania responds to haters and calls for open-mindedness
36:11: Incentives for political gambling versus punditry
40:11: Pratik plugs Origins of Woke -
Ben Freeman and MAGA Vacuum return to the show to discuss their observations from the Iowa State Fair and their predictions on who will win the state's GOP caucuses.
Timestamps
3:12: Interview begins
3:48: What is the Iowa State Fair and why is it significant for the Republican primaries?
5:31: Trump supporters trolling DeSantis
6:06: Trump's appearance
6:28: Ramaswamy rapping
7:30: DeSantis's prospects
23:40: Iowa evangelicals
26:23: DeSantis's ground game
31:38: Longshot candidates and nonstarters in Iowa
35:18: Odds of a Trump second place in Iowa
37:28: Ramaswamy supporters
38:06: Hatred of Pence
39:08: Freeman's post-interview notes -
Rule3O3 and Pratik Chougule discuss whether the political forecasting community should cancel Richard Hanania in light of his edgy writings on race, sex, and other hot-button issues.
Timestamps:
0:53: Jonathan Zubkoff wins the CSPI/Salem Center forecasting tournament
2:58: Manifest conference
5:04: Crime markets on Manifold
6:58: Open invitation to Hanania to appear on SSG
10:23: Who is Hanania?
15:22: Why a cancel attempt on Hanania
19:09: Should Hanania be canceled from the forecasting community?
23:24: Peter Wildeford's criticism
29:03: Aaron Bergman's warning on ideological policing32:22: Political betting as a solution to political polarization
33:52: OutsideContextProblem's criticism of Hanania as a troll
36:46: Rob Henderson's defense of Hanania
38:27: Oliver Habryka's proposed standard for canceling Hanania
40:45: Why Aella isn't canceled
43:47: David Manheim's critique on Hanania making people feel unwelcome
45:05: Ezra Brody's question on engaging "gross people" -
Intro: Pratik Chougule
Part I: Jonathan Zubkoff (Zubby Badger) discusses the possibility of a government shutdown and how it will likely be averted
Part II: Mick Bransfield discusses the new judge, David Ezra, who will be overseeing the PredictIt case at the district court
Part III: Pratik responds to mailbag from Domer on overconfident marks in political betting markets and argues for recruiting experts to participate in prediction markets1:45: Pratik promotes the Manifest Conference https://www.manifestconference.net/
5:46: Zubby on the possibility of a government shutdown
30:02: Mick Bransfield on David Ezra, the new judge who will oversee the PredictIt case at the district court
38:47: Pratik responds to mailbag from Domer on arrogance in political betting and argues for recruiting experts into political prediction markets -
Intro: Pratik's thoughts on the first Republican presidential debate
Part I: Pratik interviews PlayUSA columnist Steve Friess about his reporting on why political prediction markets missed the 2022 Senate races, and why the policymaking community is skeptical of political gambling.
Part II: Jonathan Zubkoff (Zubby Badger) discusses the circumstances in which Trump will attend a Republican debateTimestamps
0:12: Pratik introduces the interview with Steve Friess
1:37: Pratik introduces segment with Zubby Badger on whether Trump will attend a debate
2:59: Political betting insights from the first Republican debate
10:32: Friess's interest in political gambling
13:55: Why betting markets missed the 2022 midterms
21:05: Policymaking community's skepticism of political gambling
39:17: Factors in whether Trump will show up to a Republican debate - Laat meer zien