Afleveringen
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This week we provide the third installment of our August series on “30 Years of Perpetual Transition” with a look at a number of noteworthy geopolitical and policy developments that have occurred. A key conclusion is that some events that were expected to be impactful were not, while others that had less fanfare did have a bigger impact. Some countries had grand openings that resulted in dramatically higher oil or gas supply. Others, not so much.
Two weeks ago we discussed some of the different macro drivers that have changed over the course of our career (here). Last week we focused on sectors, business models, and strategy shifts (here). All of it is to point out that energy markets are forever changing. Energy transition has become an unfortunate and loaded term that most people would define as meaning a transition out of fossil fuels and into renewables over an arbitrarily short time frame like 2050. We do not agree that definition of energy transition is happening or would be desirable from the perspective of human prosperity. But there is a need for industry executives, investors, and policy makers to recognize that energy is in perpetual transition and that one needs to always be looking forward with a focus on the important drivers of change and to not let mis-guided and ill-informed rhetoric cloud judgements.
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⚖️Disclaimer
I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.
📜 Credits
* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.
* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com -
WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.
LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the GREY button above.
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DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.
This week we continue our series of "30 Years of Perpetual Transition" with a focus on how various energy sectors and business models have evolved. As a reminder, we recognize the term "energy transition" has become a loaded term, which most people now take to mean the idea that the world will be transitioning away from fossil fuels to renewables, over some arbitrarily short time frame like by 2050. We do not agree that this version of “energy transition” is on-track to happen or that it would be desirable from a human prosperity standpoint.
But that does not mean nothing is changing. In fact, over the course of our 30-year career a ton of stuff has changed. Last week we focused on the energy macro with a closer look on big changes to the relative importance of various regions to oil demand (here). This week we will take a look at the major energy sub-sectors and give examples of how business models and risk taking have evolved.
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⚖️Disclaimer
I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.
📜 Credits
* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.
* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com -
Zijn er afleveringen die ontbreken?
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For the last month of summer, we are aiming to produce a series of hopefully short videos that highlight key lessons from the last 30 years of what we are calling perpetual transition in the energy space with an aim to offer insights on the go forward view. Energy transition itself has become a loaded term of late, typically referring to the idea that the world will be transitioning away from fossil fuels to renewables, over some arbitrarily short time frame like by 2050. We do not agree that this version of “energy transition” is on-track to happen or would be desirable from a human prosperity standpoint.
But that does not mean nothing is changing. In fact, over the course of our 30-year career a ton of stuff has changed. And we have little doubt that the next 30 years will NOT look like the last 30 years. The macro has changed, sectors and company strategy have changed, business models evolve, new technologies and sources or location of energy supply emerge, demand changes, which stocks and sectors perform best changes. Everything is constantly transitioning. So to reiterate, we do not subscribe to what most people today mean by “energy transition,” as we expect all forms of energy to grow in coming decades. But under the hood, energy markets are constantly transitioning, and we do wish to better understand the direction the world is headed.
Today’s video is the first of our new series and will focus on “30 Years of Perpetual Transition” in the energy macro. Next week we plan to turn to the various energy sectors and company strategy. In other videos, we will look at geopolitics, policy, and the environment.
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Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.
* Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.
* YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of
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⚖️Disclaimer
I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.
📜 Credits
* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.
* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com -
WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.
LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.
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Our Super-Spiked post last week (here) asked the question of “Does the US President’s party matter to energy macro results?” Our over-arching conclusion is that the bark of presidential or party rhetoric is far worse than the bite. Energy is by nature a long-term business and mega trends around sources of supply, global economic growth, geopolitics, and capital spending cycles drive share price performance, crude oil and natural gas production, as well as CO2 emissions trends than does whichever party happens to be in power for a particular 4- or even 8-year period. The fact that these long-term trends dominate over-arching results—and we observed that there is a notable exception for particular projects that might impact specific companies, something like an approved or rejected oil or gas pipeline or perhaps a new energies subsidy—the long-term trends mean there is likely far more common ground among the major parties than there is disagreement. Yet all we hear about are the extremist edges of the debate. So in the spirt of peace, love, and unity, this week’s video will focus on where there is or should be common ground among Republicans, Democrats, and Independents here in the United States.
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* Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.
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⚖️Disclaimer
I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.
📜 Credits
* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.
* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com -
WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.
LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.
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DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.
This week we focus on the question “Can you trust the United Nations on energy and climate?” The question is sparked by a “climate change” warning label that YouTube placed on Super-Spiked Episode 37 “Goodbye Europe, Hello Rest of World” (here) that discussed an updated climate change statement from Barclays, German de-industrialization, and our thoughts on the role of US and Canadian traditional energy. The warning label linked to a United Nations website that highlighted what it described as “Facts” and “Myth Busters” on climate energy (here).
In reviewing the 16 “facts,” we find that 2 we would agree are definitively facts, another 2-3 are factually true but start the U.N. down the road of advocacy and weaponizing the topic of climate, and the other 10-11 are a mix of opinion, advocacy, and in some cases outright falsehoods. Our concern with what the U.N. presents as “facts” is that it is the organization that oversees the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which is widely (universally?) considered the authority on so-called climate science.
We have spent considerable time in prior posts and videos discussing our concerns with institutional advocacy under the pretense of sober analysis from groups like the International Energy Agency (IEA), Glasgow Financial Alliance For Net Zero (GFANZ), and within bank and asset manager ESG/Sustainability groups. Frankly, we have been late to taking a closer look at the U.N. itself, most likely because we have not relied on its data directly and it has otherwise not been within the purview of our “Wall Street” approach to discussing energy and climate. The U.N. and IPCC clearly deserve greater scrutiny given their massive influence on how the world understands climate.
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* All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.
Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.
* Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.
* YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of
Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.
* Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.
⚖️Disclaimer
I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.
📜 Credits
* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.
* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com -
WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.
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This week we honor America's upcoming 248th birthday on July 4th, when it declared independence from the King of England, and take a moment to celebrate the country's incredible achievements in the energy sector. As my friend and colleauge Paul Dabbar eloquently wrote in a terrific Hoover Institute piece that we would encourage all Super-Spiked subscribers to read (here), America is an energy superpower, a position we should lean into in coming years. Energy supply makes us as Americans and the Rest of the World richer. It betters human lives, to quote another friend Chris Wright, CEO of Liberty Energy. We have called this video American Energy Exceptionalism and it is a celebration of how fortunate we are with our endowment of substantial oil and natural gas resources, our world leading technology sector and culture of innovation and risk taking, and our leading capital markets and system of capitalism that underpins our national economic wealth.
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* All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.
Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.
* Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.
* YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of
Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.
* Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.
⚖️Disclaimer
I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.
📜 Credits
* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.
* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com -
WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.
LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.
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DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.
We turn back to our favorite topic and that is profitability and the goal of generating superior long-term share price performance. We spend a lot of time discussing ROCE, CROCI, and free cash flow. This week we wanted to talk about long-term stock buyback as one way to add per share growth to the equation and to highlight how buybacks plus M&A have contributed to significant outperformance from Murphy USA, the 2013 retail spin off from E&P parent Murphy Oil, which is in the very mature business of gas station and convenience store retailing. We also note the outperformance by the Big-3 US downstream companies versus the Majors, E&Ps, and the S&P 500.
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Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.
Subscribed
* Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.
* YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of
Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.
* Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.
⚖️Disclaimer
I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.
📜 Credits
* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.
* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com -
WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.
LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.
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DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.
We are just back from 8 straight days on the road, so this is going to be a short video podcast that touches upon three themes: (1) pushback on our view that the total addressable market (TAM) for oil is at least double current demand; (2) perspectives on the NVIDIA-like move in merchant power generator equities; and (3) a preview of what's next for the now controversial term "energy transition"? Next weekend we will be enjoying the long Memorial Day holiday, with Super-Spiked returning the first Saturday in June. Enjoy!
🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe
* All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.
Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.
* Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.
* YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of
Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.
* Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.
⚖️Disclaimer
I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.
📜 Credits
* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.
* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com -
WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.
LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.
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DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.
We follow-up to last week’s post Obliterating Peak Oil Demand: A Progress Update (here). Our main issue with the peak oil demand narrative is that it it doesn’t solve for how everyone on Earth will someday enjoy the lifestyles The Lucky 1 Billion of Us take for granted. We believe the total addressable market (TAM) for oil is 250 million b/d, well above current levels of around 103 million b/d.
The analytical mistake we think many are making is deducting future electric vehicle (EV) growth from something near current oil demand as opposed to from oil’s TAM when everyone on Earth ultimately lives within fully developed economies. Furthermore, EVs only address about 25% of the oil demand barrel and are unlikely to be viable solution for the entirety of even that sliver of demand.
At its core, our long-term outlook for oil demand looks at the relationship between global GDP growth and the quantity of oil demand needed to generate a dollar of GDP. We observe the long-term trend that every year the world generally requires slightly less oil to generate a dollar of GDP, a concept we refer to as “efficiency gains.” In this case, efficiency gains includes both fuel economy (improving miles per gallon) and product substitution (e.g., EVs, SAF, RD). Based on our analysis of “efficiency gains”, there is essentially no evidence oil demand is on-track to plateau let alone decline in coming years. We believe there is not a decade let alone year when anyone today can definitively declare oil demand will peak.
We show two country examples—China and India—which collectively have growth potential of 40-60 million b/d in order to reach a TAM that reflects a 10 barrels of oil demand per capita, consistent with “everyone being rich.” China and India are also examples of what we believe will be the main driver of limiting the TAM of oil markets to something well below 250 million b/d, which is geopolitical security. For countries that are not blessed with abundant crude oil resources, especially sizable ones like China and India, we see a strong motivation to limit growth in oil imports—the ultimate TAM limiter for oil markets.
🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe
* All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.
Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.
* Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.
* YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of
Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.
* Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.
⚖️Disclaimer
I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.
📜 Credits
* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.
* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com -
WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.
LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.
STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.
DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.
We follow up on last week’s deep post (here) on cash return on gross capital invested (CROCI), which we view as a complementary profitability metric to return on capital employed (ROCE). The videopod starts with the reasons to introduce a second, primary metric due to some of the issues with ROCE around write-offs and the inherent incentive to under-invest given the nature of the ROCE calculation. We discuss how CROCI offers different insights at the sub-sector level. Finally, we provide hypothetical examples based on actual company data for two companies that took large write-offs that boosted ROCE in subsequent years; one company continued to lag on CROCI while the other showed fundamental improvement. It is this kind of divergence that we find interesting, especially when ROCE is rendered less meaningful due to recent large impairment charges. As always, we welcome feedback, pushback, and discussion on this (and all!) topics we discuss.
🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe
* All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.
Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.
* Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.
* YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of
Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.
* Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.
⚖️Disclaimer
I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.
📜 Credits
* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.
* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com -
WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.
LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.
STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.
DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.
We spent this past week in Houston attending CERAWeek 2024. It was another great event; thank you and congratulations to everyone at S&P Global for hosting and putting on a great show!
Coming out of last year’s event, our key theme was “The Energy Transition Needs To Transition” away from an obsessive focus on only counting carbon to one that centered itself around meeting the massive unmet energy needs of everyone on Earth with affordable, reliable, and geopolitically secure energy, which in turn would better enable environmental objectives to be met. A year later, we see “green shoots” that a healthier energy evolution era is emerging and that “The New Energy Transition Narratives” we discuss in this week’s videopod are increasingly aligned with our framing.
Energy demand is increasing nearly everywhere with all energy sources and a host of both traditional and new technologies. The developing world appears to be gaining confidence to go its own way, with diminishing western world influence. And the new trend of artificial intelligence (AI)-driven power demand growth is waking the US up to the needs for an “all of the above” energy approach if we are to have reliable and growing power generation. See our post from last week, “Will AI Be Our Salvation To A Healthier Energy Evolution?” (here).
We see the potential for new business models, collaborations, and partnerships across energy value chains and between energy suppliers and users (Tech and Industrial sectors in particular) to be a likely future trend. It is about as interesting and dynamic of a period in the energy sector as we can remember over our 32-year career.
We would like to wish everyone that celebrates a Happy Easter. We too will be enjoying the long weekend and will publish our next Super-Spiked in two weeks.
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* All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.
Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.
* Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.
* YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of
Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.
* Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.
⚖️Disclaimer
I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.
📜 Credits
* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.
* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com -
WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.
LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.
STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.
DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.
We focus on some of the big macro themes that have emerged from earnings season across the broader stock market, with a focus on electric vehicle (EV) adoption S-curves, artificial intelligence (AI), ongoing US energy sector M&A, and the role of Canadian energy companies looking forward. Trends with both EVs and AI add to our confidence that demand for all sources of energy, including oil and natural gas, will continue to grow for the foreseeable future. We do not believe anyone can know today which decade let alone year that oil or natural gas will definitively peak.
We would encourage readers to review Ford CEO Jim Farley’s introductory remarks on Ford’s 4Q2023 earnings call. Mr. Farley recognized the challenges Ford is facing in ramping EV sales; and while the company remains committed to longer-term EV growth, it is clearly going to be at a slower pace than what was envisioned even one year ago. At the same time, Mr. Farley noted an uptick in hybrid vehicle sales, which, ironically, may be the technology most appropriate for US consumers and could eventually, and finally, lead to marked improvements in fuel economy.
It has long been our view that it is inappropriate to use a uniform rapid EV adoption “s-curve” in all regions; we do not believe the examples of Norway (driven by climate policy) or China (driven by geopolitical security) will be representative of the United States, India, or many other developing countries. As it relates to traditional energy, we believe the belief that rapid global EV adoption will lead to oil demand rolling over within the next 5-10 years is not anywhere near on track to occur, especially when one considers the massive untapped energy demand of the other 7 billion on Earth that are not amongst The Lucky 1 Billion of us.
We recognize that “AI” has become a major buzzword, and with that likely comes some hype and over-enthusiasm about the subject. That said, we are believers that the next major technology revolution is here. The relevance to energy is that implied power demand from AI technology use, datacenters, and related infrastructure will be massive. After about 20 years of broadly flat US power demand, low-to-mid-single digit load growth appears to have returned (even higher in some regions). Load growth and growing penetration of intermittent resources like solar and wind are an unhealthy mix—a point that does not appear to be lost on the giant technology companies.
In our view, it may well be AI that proves to be our salvation when it comes to what we have called “a messy energy transition era.” The general freak-out by many Big Tech firms over how to source power while also meeting sustainability goals, we believe could lead to a healthier narrative around energy overall. Big Tech is going to need “all of the above” energy solutions that can meet growing power demand. Near-zero methane natural gas along with nuclear are going to be important components of our power generation mix along with rising renewables output.
🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe
* All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.
Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.
* Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.
* YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of
Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.
* Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.
⚖️Disclaimer
I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.
📜 Credits
* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.
* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com -
Note: this is republication in order to upload the audio to Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.
LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUEbutton above.
STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.
DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.
We return to our sub-theme of "Goodbye Europe, Hello Rest of World" sparked by Barclay's updated Climate Change Statement (here and here), evidence of structural de-industrialization in Germany, and our recent analysis on Norway's resilient overall oil demand despite gasoline erosion due to its electric vehicle (EV) ramp.
With Europe fading as a core driver of global GDP growth, our macro focus is on how key population centers in Asia, in particular China (1.4 billion people), India (1.4 billion people), and the rest of southeast Asia (1.3 billion people) will meet their massive unmet energy needs. Climate policies being pursued in Western Europe, the United States, and Canada that disproportionately and perplexingly negatively impact traditional energy companies in their home regions is one of the key contributing factors to the messy energy transition era. For developing Asia, it remains an open question as to whether American and Canadian oil and natural gas (via LNG) will be part of the solution or will they instead need to rely on the Middle East and Russia.
Barclay's updated Climate Change Statement that promises to stop financing new oil and gas fields and infrastructure expansion is the latest example of a western-world financial institution succumbing to pressure from "climate only" ideologues. It is deeply unfortunate. Germany's ill-advised energy and climate policies are undoubtedly a major contributor to its relatively high power prices and undeniable signs of structural de-industrialization. Norway's rapid EV ramp shows how hard it is to kill overall oil demand—a fact "net zero by 2050" scenarios bizarrely ignore. Ill-advised energy and climate policies from European governments and, increasingly, financial institutions like Munich Re and Barclays (among many others) is contributing heavily to what we call a messy energy transition era—our motivation for creating Super-Spiked.
🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe
* All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.
Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.
* Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.
* YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of
Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.
* Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.
⚖️Disclaimer
I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.
📜 Credits
* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.
* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com -
WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.
LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUEbutton above.
STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.
DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.
We had intended to follow-up last weeks’ ROCE Deep Dive post (here) with examples of how to apply it to macro forecasting as well as sub-sector and company analysis. However, a surprise LNG permit “pause” from the Biden Administration followed a few days later by Saudi’s announcement it would “pause” its planned oil capacity expansion has led to a change in publishing plans!
We wrote a seven-part tweet/post on Twitter-X over the weekend (here) that has now garnered a mind-boggling 120,000 views, well above our typical 1,000-4,000 views per tweet/post. Key points: (1) there is no such thing as an “Industry” view on the “pause,” it essentially depends on whether a company, industry, or country is long or short natural gas; (2) the potential impact on Europe has been both over-analyzed and overstated; (3) the implications for developing Asia have been under-appreciated; (4) competitor countries are undoubtedly rejoicing over the news; (5) big versus small government is a basic viewpoint difference in how to address energy & environmental policy; (6) climate implications are more complex than the simple debate of LNG is higher-carbon than renewables versus lower carbon than coal.
We address the Saudi capacity expansion pause from the perspective of the recent Saudi oil policy that has focused primarily on the front-end of the curve. Is this a shift to focusing on long-dated oil? As a reminder, both the Biden LNG permit and Saudi capacity expansion pauses are consistent with our “Super Vol” rather than “super-cycle” commodity macro framework. Policy rhetoric and actions, frankly, can be as meaningful as underlying supply/demand, especially over the near-to-medium term.
Finally, we observe signs that we are past “peak Tesla,” especially when considered alongside clear evidence of electric vehicle (EV)-or-bust fatigue among car buyers and many traditional auto manufactures. China’s EV ramp continues, more or less unabated, and we believe is highly motivated by a desire to limit growth in oil imports. We do not believe there is a singular EV adoption “S-curve” for all regions. China will be different than the USA, which will be different than India, the rest of Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America. We continue to believe there is not a decade, let alone year, when we KNOW oil demand will peak, even as we expect continued growth in many new energy technologies including EVs.
🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe
* All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.
Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.
* Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.
* YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of
Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.
* Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.
⚖️Disclaimer
I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.
📜 Credits
* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.
* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com -
WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.
LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUEbutton above.
STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.
DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.
Our first two written posts of 2024 focused on the Big Themes and Tactical Questions we see for the traditional energy sector. In this video we bring those together with an expanded discussion on a number of sub-sectors including the international oil companies (IOCs) & Canadian “Big-4” oils, US “Big-3” downstream, US/Canada midstream (includes pipelines and MLPs), and gassy E&Ps. Traditional energy exhibits a massive and diverse set of opportunities and one of our 2024 aims is to provide our perspectives on where differentiated opportunities exist.
The world has now recovered from the deep COVID trough. The recovery trade in traditional energy ended in 2022. Balance sheets are fixed and profitability structurally improved (versus last decade). The challenge now for individual companies across the various sub-sectors is to articulate and demonstrate a differentiated approach to meeting the world’s massive unmet energy needs through a strategy that is both profitable and durable, or, recognizes a lack of durability by liquidating, selling, or otherwise distributing essentially all cash back to investors.
If this week’s video is not enough for you, Arjun also appeared on Lykeion’s (Geopolitics of Commodities) podcast hosted by Scott Smitson. The 55-minute discussion (link) covered global energy, Europe’s energy polices, under appreciated aspects of the energy transition, the role of government in energy policy, near-term geopolitical risk and spare capacity, and more.
Arjun also joined Tom Loughery and Reed Barrett of FLOW on a 54-minute webinar ( link, password S4Pz0+4v). Key topic items included our SuperVol framework, Tom’s view on the “second-half” of shale, the role of early versus late stage private equity, exploration, Super Major/large-cap E&P vs SMID-cap E&P strategies, and what our “phasing-in profitable growth” theme really means.
As always, we appreciate and look forward to your comments, critiques, and, if you wish, praise.
🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe
* All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.
Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.
* Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.
* YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of
Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.
* Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.
⚖️Disclaimer
I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.
📜 Credits
* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.
* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com -
WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.
LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUEbutton above.
STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.
DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.
In what is likely to be our final Super-Spiked for 2023, we provide a 2024 preview with the theme of “phasing-in profitable growth.” In the prior two Super-Spiked posts, we have discussed key takeaways from 2023, including ROCE resilience for traditional energy, the significant pressure facing many new energies business models, the massive total addressable market (TAM) for global energy demand, especially given the significant unmet energy needs of the other 7 (soon to be 9) billion people on Earth, and the ongoing “Super Vol” macro backdrop.
For traditional energy in 2024, we believe leading companies will be able to articulate and demonstrate what their unique value proposition is. ROCE improvement in and of itself is not enough; there is a need to demonstrate long-term profitability resilience and articulate a positive equity story.
For new energies, the questions are more around figuring out which new businesses will scale excluding subsidies. When we look at the massive energy TAM and take into account the desire among developing countries to have geopolitically secure energy sources, there is a major role for new energies to play, even before also taking into account environmental objectives. Sorting through the rubble of this year’s sell-off, or considering new opportunities, will be the focus.
As 2023 winds down, we would like to wish all Super-Spiked subscribers a Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah, Happy New Year, and Happy Holiday Season! We will see you early in 2024.
🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe
* All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.
Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.
Subscribed
* Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.
* YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of
Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.
* Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.
⚖️Disclaimer
I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.
📜 Credits
* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.
* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com -
WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.
LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.
STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.
DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.
This week's video is a follow up to last week’s “Reframing the growth versus returns trade-off debate” post (here). We provide additional perspectives on the opportunity for leading energy companies to narrow, if not close, the large valuation gap that we believe exists for companies capable of sustaining top quartile profitability. The ability to sustain profitability, somewhat paradoxically, requires risk taking via some mixture of M&A, exploration, global, new energies, or infrastructure investments. We also note that items like dividend/stock buyback policy and ESG & climate objectives are “table stakes” and not core investment drivers on their own.
🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe
* All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.
Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.
* Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.
* YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of
Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.
* Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.
⚖️Disclaimer
I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.
📜 Credits
* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.
* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com -
WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.
LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.
STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.
DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.
We follow-up on last week's post (here) that dove into our takeaways from recent Super Major M&A activity. We look to address the issues of (1) what is the goal of recent M&A activity; (2) what consensus media or Street views do we disagree with on M&A; (3) whether bigger is better; and (4) what does this mean for SMID-cap traditional energy.
🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe
* All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.
Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.
* Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.
* YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of
Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.
* Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.
⚖️Disclaimer
I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.
📜 Credits
* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.
* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com -
WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.
LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.
STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.
DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.
We focus on the long-term implications to the energy sector of the sharp rise in geopolitical turmoil, especially following the terrorist attack in Israel last weekend, coupled with continued stock market turmoil among past energy transition darlings like Orsted and Next Era Energy Partners among many others.
We make the following observations:
* The unmet energy needs of the other 7 billion people on Earth is massive and points to significant long-term growth potential in all forms of energy, both new technologies and traditional sources like crude oil, natural gas, coal, and nuclear.
* Yet, almost no one is calling for oil and gas companies to grow CAPEX and the major decline in New Energies equities and rising cost of capital in that space points to slower New Energies CAPEX as well, at least versus prior forecasts.
* Rising Middle East tensions and the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine come at a time of generally low OPEC spare capacity, even after considering the recent supply cuts from Saudi Arabia.
* The number of oil projects in particular being pursued continues to shrink and the cost curve is steepening.
* While we continue to characterize the commodity macro as "Super Vol" rather than "super cycle" due to economic uncertainty in three of the largest energy consuming regions--China, Europe, and the USA--the addition of new geopolitical risks in the Middle East coupled with turmoil in the New Energies space suggest it is just a matter of time before we hit a major pinch point for energy commodity prices.
* The traditional energy sector continues to be generally under-appreciated by most investors, policy makers, politicians, and academics. And we would at some point expect to find value among some New Energies equities whenever the dust settles, though that day may still be some ways into the future.
🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe
* All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.
Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.
* Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.
* YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of
Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.
* Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.
⚖️Disclaimer
I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.
📜 Credits
* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.
* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com -
WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.
LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.
STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.
DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.
Our video this week is titled Profits Over Preaching as we look to bring together a number of recent themes and address three interesting questions we have received while attending recent macro/industry events in Italy, Calgary, and New York.
Q1: Will peak oil supply fears return? We admit to being surprised at this question being raised, but it’s a good one. Over the past month-plus we have spent considerable time discussing our view that there is no peak to oil (or natural gas and perhaps not even coal) demand coming anytime soon. Trying to guess a future round-number date misses the fact that the total addressable market of future energy demand for the 7 (soon to be 9) billion people in the Rest of the World is massive; we will need all forms of energy to meet that eventual and inevitable demand. We have also noted the steepening oil cost curve (a sign of a shrinking number of low-cost oil projects) and the low levels of industry CAPEX as pointing to a future supply crunch. To be clear, we have never believed the world will be resource short anytime soon but it does require making an effort via CAPEX to grow supply. Right now, economic uncertainty in China, Europe, and the USA have allowed demand to be met by a variety of supply sources and we have stuck with a Super Vol rather than Super Cycle framing. It likely will take a firmer global economic footing to spark an oil super cycle.
Q2: What does XLE outperformance vs ICLN say about opportunities in traditional versus new energies? We highlight ICLN underperformance looks similar to what Goldman Sachs portfolio strategists have observed with unprofitable versus profitable tech. The market is clearly demanding evidence that business models are on-track to profitably scale and punishing those where there have been disappointments. While there is a role for government to play in establishing incentives, rules, and regulations, we believe caution is warranted for businesses where government is picking technology winners and fully subsidizing business models.
Q3: Are we therefore just being polite when we say new energies have a future? No, we are not simply trying to be polite! One should be careful not to assume struggles in one area (e.g., offshore wind) indicate it is all doomed; it isn’t. In fact, new energy opportunities have a wide swath of business models, exposures, capital intensity, geographies, subsidy needs, and ownership structures. Tesla has shown $ trillion dreams can be realized. But even on a much smaller scale, there are many interesting opportunities to consider. No one should confuse our pragmatism with pessimism about new energies. We will need it all, both new and old, if the world is to meet its long-term energy needs.
🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe
* All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.
Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.
* Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.
* YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of
Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.
* Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.
⚖️Disclaimer
I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.
📜 Credits
* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.
* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com - Laat meer zien
