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Chris Cillizza and Chuck Todd open on a jolting weekend in politics: the sudden death of Lindsey Graham and the frantic — and faintly unseemly — scramble to replace him. Rather than relitigate Graham through the usual partisan lens, the guys argue that his loss, alongside the coming departures of Cornyn, Tillis, Cassidy, Durbin and others, amounts to a gutting of the Senate's dealmaking center, and they lay out their favorite framework for understanding him: the difference between "ideologues" and "politicians," and why the politicians are the ones who actually get things passed. They break down the near-term fallout for Trump, who just lost his most effective back-channel to skeptical senators and to Ukraine, and handicap the wide-open South Carolina race — from Henry McMaster's likely caretaker appointment to a crowded August primary featuring Pamela Evette, Nancy Mace, and a possible Trey Gowdy compromise play.
From there it's on to two health stories the news cycle nearly buried — the mystery around Mitch McConnell's fall, pneumonia and rehab stay, and Trump's latest Walter Reed cognitive test — before a deep dive into Maine, where Susan Collins suddenly has no opponent after Graham Platner's exit and seven Democrats will fight it out at a 600-person nominating convention. Chuck and Chris debate whether Collins is now more or less vulnerable, take a spirited detour through New England blue bloods and Platner's "oyster farmer" branding, and skewer the knives-out world of political consultants. Then they close personal and sporty: their National Journal origin story, and a nerdy back-and-forth on the reinvented Home Run Derby, All-Star nostalgia, a World Baseball Classic pitch, and the Nats' latest heartbreak.
Timeline:
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00:00 Welcome to Super Tuesdays
01:29 Lindsey Graham dies Saturday night of an aortic rupture
02:01 When death hits mid-campaign, everything accelerates
03:59 The "humans vs. aliens" acting analogy, applied to politicians
04:43 Ideologues vs. politicians — and why Graham was the latter
05:42 Democratic senators genuinely liked working with Graham
06:21 The real story: the gutting of the Senate's dealmaking center
11:33 Graham would've been a Democrat if he'd grown up in Oregon
14:26 Near-term fallout — Graham was Thune & Trump's whisperer
14:59 Why Todd Blanche's confirmation just got harder
16:14 Zelensky lost his best Trump whisperer, too
17:30 Republicans have functionally lost control of the Senate
19:37 An open South Carolina Senate seat comes once a generation
22:09 South Carolina's factional GOP sets up a free-for-all
24:43 A full six-year term raises the stakes
29:06 Could Trey Gowdy be the compromise candidate?
31:02 What is going on with Mitch McConnell?
35:45 The buried health story: Trump's new Walter Reed cognitive test
36:36 Should cognitive tests be mandatory for presidents over 75?
38:26 On Graham, Trump can only make it about himself
39:32 The Butler anniversary crowd-size claim
40:32 To Maine: Collins is the most vulnerable Republican
41:02 Handicapping the seven-Democrat nominating convention
45:07 Is Susan Collins more or less vulnerable than a month ago?
47:13 Why the right Democratic nominee could actually beat her
51:15 Platner's privilege & the "oyster farmer" brand
51:39 The knives-out world of nepo-baby campaign consultants
51:56 Chuck & Chris's National Journal origin story
54:35 Why "he's a farmer, not a politician" branding is hypnotic nonsense
56:20 To sports: the reinvented, 20-swing Home Run Derby
56:41 The Nats blow three leads
58:04 Empty-nesting & the streaming shows worth your night
59:42 All-Star nostalgia in the age of the MLB app and interleague play
1:02:42 A pitch for a two-week WBC break every July
1:04:25 The Futures Game & Nats prospect Eli Willits
1:05:06 Wrap-up: subscribe to Super Tuesdays
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Chris Cillizza and Chuck Todd launch Super Tuesdays — the now-on-every-feed version of the show they've been doing together — with a wide-ranging conversation that runs from Trump's self-centered Fourth of July to the summer's most consequential Senate primaries.
First, Chris starts with the update that the USMNT lost to Belgium after President Trump intervened to get star striker Falorin Balogun’s red card overturned and wonders if Trump curses every sports team he involves himself with. He also weighs in on the latest developments surrounding Graham Platner.
Then, the guys break down why Trump's 250th-anniversary flop and his eye-popping financial disclosure ($2.2 billion in his first year back, $1.4 billion of it from crypto) add up to what Chuck calls "late-stage Trumpism" — a president who's more isolated, less able to self-correct, and increasingly celebrating his own version of patriotism by himself. From there it's onto the world stage: Trump's trip to the NATO summit, his instinct to break the alliance, and why throwing a lifeline to a historically vulnerable Putin makes no strategic sense.
The back half turns to the 2026 map and the 2028 shadow race. Chuck and Chris dig into Mallory McMorrow's exit and the now one-on-one Abdul El-Sayed–Haley Stevens fight in Michigan, the outsider-vs-insider dynamic driving Democratic primaries, and what the Black vote means from Detroit to Karen Bass's LA. They size up the Wes Moore–Pritzker–Buttigieg field, decode the Graham Platner drama in Maine and why Susan Collins stays chronically underrated, and offer a sharp consumer's guide to why the NYT and Fox polls tell such different stories. Then they close the way only these two would — Trump's alleged FIFA meddling ahead of USA–Belgium, a lesson on how corruption always comes back around, LeBron's next move, and a deep Nationals All-Star and trade-deadline dive.
Timeline:
00:00 USMNT loses to Belgium
07:00 Welcome to Super Tuesdays
09:25 Chuck watched 90% of Trump's July 4th speech
09:45 How it compares to Reagan & the 1986 Statue of Liberty centennial
11:11 Gerald Ford's restrained 1976 bicentennial in an election year
11:31 Trump threw away years of 250th anniversary planning
12:44 Trump's financial disclosure: $2.2B in year one, $1.4B from crypto
13:16 The Trump Bible and the tchotchke economy
14:24 "You should've seen what they wanted to put in that disclosure"
15:45 No elected officials showed up to celebrate the 4th with Trump
16:46 Trump is celebrating his version of patriotism by himself
17:05 The K-shaped economy & why Trump is insulated from the 80%
18:37 The case that we've reached "late-stage Trumpism"
21:06 AI-written speeches Trump can't even stick to
22:00 Expect a staff exodus after the midterms
23:12 Trump will never give a "shellacking" concession speech
23:38 The GOP language shift from "socialists" to "communists"
24:15 Trump heads to the NATO summit — can he actually break NATO?
25:32 Trump the transactionalist & the FIFA-Qatar corruption aside
26:36 Trump, Putin, and the shared goal of weakening Europe
28:50 Putin has never been this vulnerable
31:11 Why Trump is drawn to strongmen and rogues
32:20 Trump has no lifelong friends — everyone he gets close to gets alienated
33:37 Transactional "friends" like Howard Lutnick
34:11 To the Senate: Mallory McMorrow drops out of Michigan
35:44 Democratic primary energy is outsider vs. insider
36:38 El-Sayed is a genuinely talented communicator
38:04 Jackson & Bernie's Michigan wins as a pattern
39:34 Progressives' persistent problem with the Black vote
42:06 Michigan is the Democratic-held seat the party overlooks
43:30 How Michigan slipped from the blue wall
44:46 If El-Sayed and Paxton both win, donors panic
45:37 The 2028 hunt for the "most electable" Democrat
47:32 The real dividing line: fix the institutions or blow them up
49:09 Pritzker is the overlooked progressive-with-a-record
51:07 Pete Buttigieg's Biden baggage is heavier than he thinks
51:35 The Graham Platner story brewing in Maine
51:56 Collins vs. Platner is basically a toss-up
52:38 Trump takes credit for FIFA siding with the US over Belgium
54:50 A generic Democrat would beat Collins by ten
57:23 NYT forecasting vs. Fox snapshot polling
59:53 The real battlegrounds: Iowa, Ohio, Alaska
1:00:11 Where Democrats find another seat — Kansas, Mississippi
1:02:04 Jolly vs. Byron Donalds & the closer-than-you-think governor's race
1:04:00 The World Cup, Balogun's red card & USA-Belgium
1:05:23 No other president would have intervened with FIFA
1:05:49 Left-leaning soccer fans rationalizing corruption that helps them
1:08:16 A birthright-citizen Balogun & soccer's Trump ambivalence
1:08:59 LeBron's "Decision Part 10" & Rich Paul's genius whiteboard
1:10:29 Why the Warriors fit LeBron's game
1:12:19 LeBron wants to play guard, not power forward
1:14:00 Nats All-Stars: James Wood & CJ Abrams snubs and starters
1:16:53 The Aug. 3 trade deadline: buyer, seller, or stand pat?
1:18:19 Abrams & Wood among the game's best Black players
1:18:45 Building the Nats around Black stars in a majority-Black city
1:19:59 Baseball's demographics & the "no Bubbas in Connecticut" bit
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