Afleveringen

  • #4 - Practice 3: Find Inflections in Cyclical Businesses Undergoing Secular Change Like Kuppy

    #4 - Practice 3: Find Inflections in Cyclical Businesses Undergoing Secular Change Like Kuppy

    · Taylor Made Macro

    “But I'm buying stuff where, revenue’s growing rapidly. I'm buying stuff where value creation is happening rapidly. I'm buying, you know, growth momentum names. I’m buying them before anyone else realizes that they’re growth momentum names...they're still valued like uh, value stocks. If you look at this sort of stuff we're doing, we call it--, I call it inflection investing for lack of a better word, but they tend to be industries that have destroyed a lot of capital that have bored people to death, that give people PTSD.” -Kuppy, Praetorian Capital

    --

    Kuppy has been a great friend to Chase since he started PMR. This week they discuss position sizing, what inflection investing really means, how to spot the convergence of cyclical and secular tailwinds, and most importantly, how getting away from the markets allows you to express your trades more effectively. Kuppy's approach to investing is bold, well researched, and decisive. We also discussed how he decided to stop missing stuff with the inception of Kuppy’s Event Driven Monitor (KEDM).

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (01:46) – Kuppy is a value investor that makes money

    (02:58) – Charity of Choice: Sugar Pine Foundation

    (04:09) – Roman History isn’t a real major  

    (06:03) – Inflection investing is momentum investing with a value overlay

    (09:28) – Middleman companies provide the best value?

    (09:46) – Cyclical sectors with secular change

    (12:02) – Find ways to be out of the office

    (12:46) – Kuppy makes the chart

    (12:55) – Fundamental Momentum

    (13:42) – Exit criteria: When something better comes along

    (15:40) – Sizing of trades: There’s not enough good ideas to trade small positions

    (19:54) – Get away from granularity unless it’s earnings season

    (24:42) – Massive events still take weeks to figure out

    (26:25) – Surfing – no phones allowed

    (28:20) – Good food and good weather for good living

    (29:13) – Being wrong isn’t personal. Get out before you change your mind

    (31:39) – Between Two Pines

    (35:21) – Sidestep the politics and sales pitches of corporate management leadership

    (40:45) – KEDM – Kuppy got tired of missing stuff

    (46:16) – Tomorrow’s Gold by Marc Faber & Reminiscences of a Stock Operator by Edwin Lefùvre and Roger Lowenstein

    (47:00) – Sleepwalking into YCC

    (48:04) – Kuppy reaches out the finance circle for “smell tests”

    (49:23) – Luck in trades because of long timeline horizons

    (51:46) – Plugs

    --

    This Episode's Charity:

    The Sugar Pine Foundation began in 2004.They are dedicated to restoring sugar pines in the Lake Tahoe National Forest in California.

    Donate here: https://sugarpinefoundation.org/get-involved/donate

    --

    Referenced in the Show:

    Kuppy’s Book Recommendations: Tomorrow’s Gold by Marc Faber &

    Reminiscences of a Stock Operator by Edwin LefĂšvre and Roger Lowenstein

    --

    Guest Plugs:

    Kuppy’s X : https://twitter.com/hkuppy

    Praetorian Capital : https://pracap.com/

    Kuppy’s Event Driven Monitor (KEDM) :

  • #3 - Practice 2: Sideline Your Ego Like Kevin Muir

    #3 - Practice 2: Sideline Your Ego Like Kevin Muir

    · Taylor Made Macro

    "When trading, are you more interested in being right, or are you more interested in making money? And I ultimately just look at it like ‘I just want to make money, and
make the best returns I can’, and so therefore I need to stay open to different ideas.” - Kevin Muir

    --

    This week’s episode features another one of Chase’s greatest mentors, Kevin Muir. Kevin is a prototype of the kind of investor we’re trying to highlight on this podcast. He’s a markets scientist who isn’t afraid to explore new ideas and find himself wrong after that process. His open-mindedness has led him to some great theories that we dig deeper into for this episode.

    --

    Timestamps:

    -- (00:01) - Intro

    -- (03:19)- Kevin’s Charity: Covenant House

    -- (04:39) -Why Kevin loves the markets

    -- (05:39)- James Aiken’s philosophy on overload

    -- (10:56)- How Kevin discovered MMT wasn’t the stupidest thing he ever heard

    -- (15:10)- Tim Urban and the “high rung” approach to ideas

    --(17:41)- How do you intentionally stay open to new ideas?

    --(23:55)- Systematic Investing Flows

    --(30:01)- Tried and True Indicators can’t always help (Yield Curve Inversion)

    --(39:25)- Must Read Books for Traders

    --(45:27)- Between Two Pines

    --(53:25)- Simple morning rituals set you up for a full day of markets, and you should adjust your reading to the macro environment

    --(56:18)- Different life priorities led Kevin from working at a bank to operating the Macro Tourist

    --(1:01:43)- “New techs” cause mini-rolling bubbles and never underestimate the stupidity of regional bank CEOs

    --(1:07:14)- Plugs

    --

    This Episode's Charity:

    The Covenant House of Toronto aims to serve youth who are homeless, trafficked, or at risk. They’re located in the heart of Toronto and offer youth ages 16-24 essential services such as medical care, food, and shelter.

    Kevin and Chase raised $100 for charity this week!

    --

    Referenced in the Show:

    What’s Our Problem?: A Self-Help Book for Societies by Tim Urban

    Is Inflation Ending: Are You Ready? by A. Gary Shilling and Kiril Sokoloff

    The Logical Trader: Applying a Method to the Madness by Mark Fisher

    The Alchemy of Finance by George Soros

    Kevin’s Interviews of Jim Leitner on The Market Huddle: Check out this episode’s blog post

    --

    Guest Plugs:

    Kevin’s The Macro Tourist Substack

    Kevin’s X: https://twitter.com/kevinmuir

    Kevin’s email: [email protected]

    --

    Pinecone Macro Research aims to provide unique, well researched analysis of the global markets using a macro framework. Find us here: www.pineconemacro.com

    Follow us and the show on Twitter: @PineconeMacro &

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  • #2 - Practice 1: Use Systems Thinking Like Brent Johnson

    #2 - Practice 1: Use Systems Thinking Like Brent Johnson

    · Taylor Made Macro

    "I have forced myself to be a rationalist...I force myself to understand that what I think is right or wrong has absolutely zero bearing on what the market is going to do." - Brent Johnson

    --

    Our inaugural episode highlights Chase's long-time mentor and friend, Brent Johnson. Brent Johnson is the founder of Santiago Capital and has more than 20 years of experience in finance. Chase and Brent discuss systems thinking, how they draw inspiration from people smarter than themselves, and how removing your own biases is a learned skill required to operate in the markets.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (01:36) - How Chase and Brent Met

    (06:52) - Ground Rules

    (07:18) - Charity of Choice: Love4Satos

    (08:30) - Milkshake Theory Evolution & How to Approach the Markets

    (13:26) - Systems Thinking

    (17:31) - George Soros, Imperial Circle, and Liquidity

    (25:17) - Strong Dollar, Weak Dollar

    (34:30) - Between Two Pines

    (36:31) - Changing Thoughts on the Fed Hikes End Goal

    (37:12) - Getting a Trade Right for the Wrong Reasons

    (40:44) - Read to "Collect Dots"

    (43:28) - The "Santiago" Book Characters Behind Santiago Capital

    (43:57) - Contrarian Views Can Be More Profitable than Consensus Views

    (46:28) - Conference Tips From a Seasoned Guest Speaker

    (48:52) - Plugs

    --

    This Episode's Charity:

    Brent chose Love4Satos. The charity is located in Puerto Rico and aims to find forever homes for stray dogs in the continental United States

    Website & Where to Donate

    --

    Referenced in the Show:

    1) Imperial Circle Primer - George Soros

    2) Milkshake Theory

    3) 35 Books on Systems Thinking by Category (I recommend #1, #5, and #13).

    4) The Alchemist by Paulo Coelho

    5) The Old Man and the Sea by Ernest Hemingway

    --

    Guest Plugs:

    Brent Johnson X & MilkshakesPod X

    Milkshake, Markets, and Madness Podcast

    --

    Pinecone Macro Research aims to provide unique, well researched analysis of the global markets using a macro framework. Find us here: www.pineconemacro.com

    Follow us and the show on Twitter: @PineconeMacro & @TaylorMadeMacro

    Subscribe on Substack: https://substack.com/@pineconemacroresearch

    --

    Bulwark Capital Management:

  • What is Taylor Made Macro?

    What is Taylor Made Macro?

    · Taylor Made Macro

    Welcome to Taylor Made Macro! This episode is a quick primer to let y'all know who I am, what I do and what this podcast is going to be all about.

    --

    Pinecone Macro: https://www.pineconemacro.com/

    X: https://twitter.com/pineconemacro

    Substack: https://substack.com/@pineconemacroresearch

    --

    Pinecone Macro Research aims to provide unique, well researched analysis of the global markets using a macro framework.

    --

    Disclaimer:

    --

    The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor