Afleveringen
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In this episode, Pyotr Kurzin hosts Dr. Bence Nemeth to explore Europe's strategic autonomy, defense capabilities, and the evolving landscape of NATO and EU military cooperation amid the Ukraine conflict and broader geopolitical shifts.
Bence Nemeth is a Senior Lecturer at the Defence Studies Department of Kingâs College London, where he primarily teaches British and international military officers at the Defence Academy of the UK.
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Trump says he has secured a major breakthrough with Iran, but is the deal even worse than many are already claiming? And are details taking so long to release?
Joining me today is Ian Bremmer, founder of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media, to discuss the emerging US-Iran agreement, why many analysts remain sceptical, and whether Washington is actually in a weaker position than before the conflict began.
We examine the future of the Iran deal, sanctions relief, the Strait of Hormuz, Trump's foreign policy decision-making, growing divisions within the Middle East, China's expanding influence, and what all of this means for the balance of power in the region and beyond. We also discuss Europe, the G7, Russia, and the increasingly strained relationship between America and its allies.
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Zijn er afleveringen die ontbreken?
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Senator Mark Kelly just returned from Odessa. His verdict: Ukraine has effectively shut down the Russian Navy in the Black Sea â Russia can't operate there anymore.
Crimea is next.Full conversation with the Senator on what he saw on the ground, the momentum shift, and why Putin is running out of options.
Senator Mark Kelly is a retired Navy combat pilot, NASA astronaut, and sitting US Senator for Arizona serving on the Armed Services and Intelligence Committees.
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Ukraine just struck Putin's hometown during the St Petersburg Economic Forum. Is this a genuine shift in momentum or another false dawn in a war that keeps defying predictions?
Dan Ridler, Senior Analyst for Europe at the Economist Intelligence Unit, joins to cut through the noise. We get into how the EIU actually forecasts war outcomes, why the battlefield probably won't decide this conflict, what the frozen conflict scenario gets wrong, and the one underappreciated path toward peace that most analysts are missing.
Plus â how do you verify Russian economic data when Moscow keeps hiding it? And what's the single biggest variable that will determine where this war goes next?
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America is in a moment of self-inflicted crisis â and the man responsible may not be able to find a way out. Trump has started a war he promised he wouldn't, fractured his own base, and tied his political fate to every price rise and policy failure.
In this episode, I speak with Tom Nichols about why Trump's domestic troubles are uniquely of his own making, what the Iran war reveals about the collapse of MAGA's anti-interventionist promise, and whether the Republican Party can survive the contradictions Trump has created. We also explore what all of this means for Ukraine, Russia's future, and American power on the world stage.
Tom Nichols is a staff writer at The Atlantic and Professor Emeritus at the U.S. Naval War College.
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The ceasefire may have slowed the fighting - but according to former JCPOA adviser Alan Eyre, the underlying dynamics between the United States, Iran, and Israel have barely changed at all.
In this conversation, we break down why the US-Iran talks remain stuck at âsquare one,â why Tehran believes time is on its side, and why the current pause in hostilities could simply be the calm before another round of escalation.
Alan Eyre is Distinguished Diplomatic Fellow at the Middle East Institute.
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Donald Trump's war with Iran is the reflection of something much bigger, perhaps much worse, happening with the USA, its foreign policy and its standing in the evolving world order. Can the United States still impose political outcomes abroad without triggering wider economic, geopolitical, and strategic blowback?
In this part 1 of 2 Retired Australian Major General Mick Ryan joins The Global Gambit to break down the dangerous new phase of the US-Iran conflict, why Trumpâs strategy may be backfiring, and what this confrontation reveals about the future of American power. From escalation traps and nuclear deterrence to Chinaâs growing advantage and the global economic fallout, this conversation explores why the Iran crisis is about far more than just the Middle East.
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The US-Iran ceasefire may still technically be holding â but experts worry and warn that it is already beginning to rot. In this conversation, we break down why Iran is targeting the UAE, why the Strait of Hormuz remains the key pressure point, and why Trumpâs attempt to claim victory may be colliding with economic reality.
Alan Eyre - distinguished diplomatic fellow at the Middle East Institute, argues that the real test is not rhetoric, press conferences, or military theatre â it is whether ships actually return to Hormuz. If maritime traffic does not resume, the crisis could become far more expensive, far more global, and far harder for Washington to control.
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Global democracy is changing and Hungaryâs election may signal more than just a political shift â it could mark the beginning of a broader democratic rebound.
In this episode, I speak with Katherine Stewart about whether the world is moving out of a decade-long âdemocracy recession,â why OrbĂĄnâs defeat matters, and what it tells us about the resilience of democratic systems. We also explore the global implications â from Ukraine and Europe to rising political risk and shifting power dynamics worldwide.
Katherine Stewart is the Head of Impact Research at Economist Impact, part of The Economist Group.
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The collapse of USâIran negotiations highlights a deeper structural problem: escalation is now outpacing diplomacy. Following a high-level meeting in Islamabad that failed to produce any meaningful breakthrough, the United States has escalated by moving to blockade the Strait of Hormuzâraising serious questions about strategy, sustainability, and the risk of broader regional spillover.
In this episode, I speak with Ross Harrison about the strategic logic behind both sidesâ actions. We analyse the role of coercive diplomacy, the limits of military pressure as a negotiating tool, and the increasing complexity of the conflict as Iran expands the theatre horizontally through proxies and regional pressure points.
We also explore whether the United States has a coherent theory of change, how Iran is leveraging asymmetric tactics to shape outcomes, and why the absence of a clear off-ramp may be the most dangerous factor of all.
Ross Harrison is a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, specialising in US foreign policy, Iran, and regional security dynamics.
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While Trump's fragile ceasefire with Iran continues to hold, Israel is now going after Hezbollah in Lebanon, putting the entire Middle East on edge. We are joined by David Daoud of the FDD to understand why Israelâs escalation in Lebanon was likely once the Iran front quietened, and why Hezbollah remains far harder to uproot than many assume.
We discuss the limits of decapitation strategies, Hezbollahâs deep roots in Lebanese Shiite society, the risk of a prolonged Israeli security zone in southern Lebanon, and why Washington may see Hezbollah as a core threat without wanting direct US involvement. The conversation also explores the wider geopolitical fallout for Europe, NATO, and Israelâs standing in American politics as the war drags on.
David Daoud is Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
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Russiaâs apparent momentum in Ukraine is misleading. As David Petraeus argues, it reflects adaptation and external support rather than lasting strength, while Ukraineâs innovation has been underestimated.
The war is also reshaping how conflicts are fought â with drones, decentralised tactics, and rapid adaptation replacing traditional military dominance. Ultimately, the outcome will depend less on the battlefield and more on Western unity and Europeâs economic backing, which remain decisive.
David Petraeus is a retired U.S. Army four-star general, former commander of U.S. and NATO forces in Iraq and Afghanistan, and ex-Director of the CIA.
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The conflict between Iran, the United States, and Israel is entering a far more complex and dangerous phase than many expected.
In this conversation, Iâm joined by Ali Vaez - Iran Project Director and Senior Adviser to the President of the International Crisis Group to examine what is actually happening behind the headlines. Why the war has shifted into a grinding war of attrition, why Iranâs leadership prepared for a long confrontation rather than a quick collapse, and how the balance of power inside Iran may now be shifting toward the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
We also discuss the growing divergence between U.S. and Israeli strategic objectives, the limits of military escalation, and the wider regional risksâfrom Kurdish separatism to the possibility of a broader regional conflict drawing in major powers.
If the fighting stops, it may only produce a fragile ceasefire, not a real resolution.
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The United States has deployed one of its largest military buildups in the Middle East in decades â and yet, nothing has happened. So why assemble overwhelming force if conflict was never inevitable?
In this episode, Pyotr Kurzin speaks with Con Coughlin, Defence and Foreign Affairs Editor at The Daily Telegraph, to unpack the real strategy behind Americaâs military pressure on Iran. We explore how Donald Trump is using military leverage to force a new nuclear deal, why Iranâs weakened regional position has shifted the balance, and how Tehran is relying on diplomacy, Russia, and China to survive.
This is a conversation about coercion, credibility, and why the most powerful military deployments are often designed not to be used â but to reshape the negotiating table.
Chapters
00:00 The Military Buildup and Its Implications
10:01 Iran's Current Position and Internal Dynamics
19:57 The Role of External Influences and Regional Dynamics
29:42 Future Scenarios: Engagement or Conflict?
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Summary
In this episode I engage Larissa Brown, the defence editor at The Times, to discuss the current state of geopolitics, defence dynamics, and the implications of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. They explore insights from the Munich Security Conference, the UK's defence spending, military readiness, and the evolving threat posed by Russia. The conversation also delves into the US-UK defence relationship, public sentiment on military spending, and the challenges facing the UK military in terms of manpower and logistics. As they look ahead, they consider the impact of populism on European defence and the importance of collaboration among European nations.
Chapters
00:00 Introduction to Geopolitics and Defense Dynamics
02:38 Insights from the Munich Security Conference
05:41 Assessing the UK Military's Readiness
08:26 The Threat of Russia and Hybrid Warfare
11:22 UK's Defense Spending and Political Challenges
14:08 The US-UK Defense Relationship
16:43 European Strategic Autonomy and Cooperation
19:36 The Role of Drones in Modern Warfare
22:28 Joint Operations Against ISIS and Future Threats
25:02 The Future of UK Defense and European Relations
28:17 Looking Ahead: Key Global Events and Developments
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Summary
In this conversation, Edward Lucas discusses the ongoing war in Ukraine, the influence of Donald Trump on NATO and European defense, and the shifting dynamics of power in Europe. He emphasises the need for Europe to enhance its military autonomy and the importance of a united front against Russia. Lucas also addresses the concept of the 'shadow fleet' and the implications of European actions on Russia's strategic calculations. The discussion highlights the complexities of international relations and the necessity for Europe to adapt to changing geopolitical realities.
Chapters
00:00 Current State of Trilateral Talks
03:59 The Role of the United States in European Security
09:55 Europe's Defense Capabilities and Autonomy
15:47 The Shadow Fleet and European Responses
21:38 Final Thoughts and Future Outlook
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Summary
In this episode, Pyotr Kurzin engages with Trita Parsi, the Executive Vice President of the Quincy Institute, to discuss the evolving geopolitical landscape in Iran and the broader Middle East. They delve into the implications of the recent leadership changes in Iran, particularly following the death of President Raisi, and how this has affected the political dynamics within the country.
Parsi emphasizes the incompetence of the previous government and the ongoing protests, highlighting the deep-seated frustrations among the Iranian populace regarding economic mismanagement and political repression. The conversation also touches on the significant internet blackout in Iran, which has hindered communication and information flow, further complicating the situation.
Chapters
00:00 Introduction to Iran's Current Landscape
14:47 Leadership Changes and Public Sentiment
17:44 The Impact of Protests and Government Response
21:45 Internet Shutdown: A Sign of Desperation
24:34 Violence and the Role of the IRGC
27:28 Civil Liberties and Digital Isolation
29:55 Geopolitical Context and Regional Dynamics
37:32 The Future of Iran in a Changing Middle East
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Summary
In this conversation, Martin Wolf discusses the current state of the global economy, emphasizing the importance of demographic changes, economic growth, and the resilience of economies in the face of challenges. He highlights the political fragility in Europe and the US, the risks associated with transatlantic relations, and the need for Europe to strengthen its position in a multipolar world. The discussion also touches on the fragmentation of regional blocks and the uncertainty surrounding the future of global governance.
Chapters
00:00 Reflections on Global Economic Trends
08:52 Political Fragility and Economic Growth
17:51 The Future of Transatlantic Relations
26:37 Europe's Strategic Challenges Ahead
35:07 Navigating a New World Order
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Summary
In this conversation, Pyotr Kurzin and Dmitri Alperovitch delve into the intricate relationship between geoeconomics and geopolitics, particularly in the context of the United States' National Security Strategy. They discuss the implications of Trump's approach to international relations, the challenges Europe faces in achieving strategic autonomy, and the complexities surrounding tariffs and economic strategies. The dialogue also touches on the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and the potential risks associated with seizing Russian sovereign assets.
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Summary
In this episode of Global Gambit, host Pyotr Kurzin engages with Lawrence Freedman, a prominent figure in military strategy, to dissect the recent 28-point peace plan regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Kurzin expresses skepticism about the plan's legitimacy, noting its repetitive nature and the lack of serious diplomatic engagement. Freedman elaborates on the origins of the plan, highlighting its amateurish drafting and the absence of meaningful discussions between Russia and Ukraine. He critiques the plan's vague language and unrealistic expectations, suggesting that it may not lead to a viable resolution of the ongoing conflict.
As the conversation progresses, Freedman discusses the implications of the plan for both Ukraine and Russia, emphasizing the need for a more robust diplomatic framework. He also touches on the current military situation, including the challenges faced by both sides as winter approaches. The episode concludes with a reflection on the broader geopolitical landscape, urging listeners to consider the complexities of international relations and the potential for escalation in the region. Freedman's insights provide a nuanced understanding of the ongoing conflict and the challenges of achieving lasting peace.
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