Weirdly hot oceans that are losing their breath, and solar panels in the wrong place

23 aug · The Hoon

Long stories short, here’s the top six news items of note in climate news for Aotearoa-NZ this week, and a discussion above between Bernard Hickey and The Kākā’s climate correspondent Cathrine Dyer:

* Scientists are not entirely sure why sea surface temperatures have been accelerating so quickly over the past year, at the same time as air surface temperatures.

* A study on the effects of storms in the Southern Ocean has found they are triggering an outgassing of carbon dioxide, which may affect their ability to absorb carbon in the future. Nearly half of all current ocean carbon uptake is believed to occur in the Southern Ocean.

* Another study in the journal Nature found that marine heatwaves caused by climate change are triggering low-oxygen extreme events. “[O]ur findings suggest the ocean is losing its breath under the influence of heatwaves, potentially experiencing more severe damage than previously anticipated.”

* Finally, another study has found that just 1.5°C of subsurface ocean warming triggered repeated Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) collapses during the Pliocene, a period considered a good analogue for current and future sea level. These AIS collapses contributed up to 25m of sea level change.

* Understanding why oceans are ‘weirdly hot’ at the moment, the subject of this analysis in NPR, has enormous consequences for what we might expect in the future. A possible link to shipping pollution is gaining credence.

* Energy think tank Ember’s 2024 Global Electricity Review shows the meteoric rise of solar capacity, but also highlights the fact that related efficiency gains would be much higher if they were being built in sunnier countries. This suggests that OECD countries should invest more in climate financing for solar installations in developing countries, while focusing on demand-side reductions in fossil demand at home (although that’s not exactly how Ember put it).

(See more detail and analysis below, and in the video and podcast above. Cathrine Dyer’s journalism on climate and the environment is available free to all paying and non-paying subscribers to The Kākā and the public. It is made possible by subscribers signing up to the paid tier to ensure this sort of public interest journalism is fully available in public to read, listen to and share. Cathrine wrote the wrap. Bernard edited it. Lynn copy-edited and illustrated it.)

1. Scientists stumped over sea surface temps

A series of big papers on ocean heating has come out in the past few weeks, likely in response to the past year’s record mean ocean surface temperatures.

The oceans play a significant role in stabilising earth’s climate, absorbing heat from global warming, but also feeding that additional energy into stronger storms, that intensify more quickly. Any change in the capacity of oceans to absorb heat has big implications for the rate of global warming. According to a blog on pbsnc.org,

It’s likely the warmer Earth and air temperatures are contributing to the warmer ocean temperatures, but scientists don’t know precisely why sea surface temperatures have climbed so high so fast.

While air temperatures are warmer, water has a greater capacity to absorb and store heat. In fact, the ocean has absorbed about 90% of the heat created by global warming.

“It takes a lot of heat to raise water’s temperature, and I do fear there may be something else going on that is causing a long-term change in sea surface temperatures we hadn’t predicted,” said John Abraham, a professor at the University of St. Thomas, who studies ocean temperatures.

Far from being immune to this, sea temperatures in some areas around Aotearoa New Zealand have been outstripping global average temperatures three-fold, as we reported last month. Data from Stats NZ show coastal water temperatures increasing 0.19-0.34°C per decade. This would have contributed to the strength of Cyclone Gabrielle last year.

2. Storms tipping the carbon scales

A study on the effects of storms in the Southern Ocean, of which there are many, has found that they trigger a release of carbon dioxide.

In addition to absorbing 90% of earth’s heat, oceans also take up 25% of the excess carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere by human activity and nearly half of this carbon uptake is believed to occur over the Southern Ocean. To date, the exchange of carbon between the atmosphere and ocean, particularly in this region, has not been well understood.

The finding that “storms tip the scales in the air-sea exchange of carbon in the Southern Ocean” in a process known as outgassing, is critical to modelling the ocean’s ability to absorb carbon and to predict the effects of climate warming in the future.

3. The ocean is losing its breath

Another study, published in the journal Nature, found that marine heatwaves caused by climate change can trigger low-oxygen extreme events.

Oxygen levels in seawater are a crucial element in sustaining biological survival. It is known that warming oceans are losing oxygen, primarily due to human activity.

According to the study authors “[O]ur findings suggest the ocean is losing its breath under the influence of heatwaves, potentially experiencing more severe damage than previously anticipated.”

Source: The ocean losing its breath under the heatwaves

4. Insights from the far distant past

Another big study this month has found that just 1.5°C of subsurface ocean warming triggered periodic marine ice sheet collapses in Antarctica during the Pliocene era, contributing up to 25m of glacial-interglacial sea level change.

On the basis of CO2 concentrations and global temperatures, the Pliocene is believed to provide a good comparison for current and future sea level and climate and is thus important for modelling the impact of Antactic Ice Sheet (AIS) dynamics on sea level projections. That puts the speed of ocean warming we are currently seeing into perspective.

5. The role of shipping in heating the sea

Understanding why oceans are ‘weirdly hot’ at the moment, the subject of this analysis in NPR, has enormous consequences for what we might expect in the future.

One leading explanation is that the reduction in pollution from ships is playing a role.

This is a core element of James Hansen’s claim, outlined in the paper ‘Global warming in the pipeline’, which suggests that climate scientists have been underestimating climate sensitivity and that an acceleration in heating is occurring.

Another recent study supports his contention that reductions in ship sulphur emissions since new regulations came into force in 2020 have accelerated global warming. Hansen famously warned that “under the present geopolitical approach to GHG emissions, global warming will exceed 1.5°C in the 2020s and 2°C before 2050”. The evidence is continuing to stack up in favour of his view, with ocean heating providing a critical element.

Some climate scientists, according to an article in Bloomberg, are now expecting temperature spikes that set new records to occur more frequently in future, with bigger jumps from one high to the next. Erich Fischer, a climate scientist at ETH Zurich was lead author of a paper in 2021 that predicted “record-shattering extremes, nearly impossible in the absence of warming” that proved almost immediately prophetic.

As new extremes arrive, Fischer predicts previously rare high-end temperatures will become more commonplace. A 1-in-1,000-year heat wave any time between 1951 and 2019 will have shifted to a 1-in-100-year event by around 2020, according to his study. That not-so-unusual heat wave will move again to a 1-in-40-year event in the mid-2020s.

6. The Ember report: air con boom and solar inefficiencies

Demand for air conditioners is contributing to an anticipated surge in energy demand in 2024 according to energy think tank Ember’s annual Global Electricity Review.

Demand for key electrification technologies that replace fossil fuels with electrification, in particular EVs and heat pumps, have contributed 27% of total demand growth in 2023. These contribute to a net decrease in energy demand due to their greater efficiency and also to a decrease in CO2.

The 72 TWh of additional demand from EVs in 2023 was enough to displace over 260,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, had it been burned in ICE vehicles. This is comparable to Australia’s total gasoline consumption in 2021. The 100 TWh of additional demand coming from the new heat pump sales in 2023 would have required around 300 TWh of gas, if burned in a conventional boiler to produce the same amount of heat. This is similar to the total gas consumption of France. As the world continues to electrify, the efficiency gains will mean that less overall energy is needed, even as demand for electricity increases.

If that was all that was happening, we could bank it alongside a reduction in fossil fuel use. However, 28% of electricity demand growth was from air conditioning and data centres. That net new energy demand has contributed to a result in which fossil fuel use continued to grow last year.

Finally, the following chart from Ember shows the massive off-take in solar energy that occurred in 2023, more than half of which was driven by China. Capacity additions were 76% higher in 2023 than in 2022, which was itself a record year. Interestingly, solar generation was below expectations because much of the new installed capacity has occurred in countries with less sunlight.

Those countries with the most to gain from solar capacity are lagging. For some, the reason is ideological and policy-driven, in others the lack of climate financing, technology transfer and other de-risking mechanisms are curtailing potential for development. Africa, for instance, has one-fifth of the global population and has huge solar potential but is attracting just 3% of global energy investment, according to Ember’s review. Meantime China is producing an oversupply of modules that is likely to continue into 2024,

“China’s need to find new export markets is a tremendous opportunity for countries around the world to take advantage of how cost competitive and available solar is compared to other generation sources.” (p.36)

That combination of factors means that the biggest potential efficiency gain from installing solar capacity would be if OECD countries contributed more climate financing toward installations in the developing world. This would also have the benefit of contributing to sustainable development and reducing global inequity, both of which are critical to achieving climate targets. A focus on demand-side policies to reduce energy demand in the OECD would enable a faster, more efficient and equitable transition.

Some headwinds include grid congestion, which is creating major bottlenecks, with a lack of suitable connection points for solar (requiring investment in new transmission capacity), and curtailment is expected to increase in China and California due to insufficient storage. The latter might put at risk the below projection from NGO Land Art Generator, which creates a very visual picture of the potential shape of future electricity generation in California.

Ka kite ano

Bernard and Cathrine

This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe

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Afleveringen

The Hoon around the year to December 20, 2024
19 dec· The Hoon
The podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers on Thursday night features co-hosts Bernard Hickey & Peter Bale talking about the year’s news with:
* Cathrine Dyer on climate. Her book of the year was Tim Winton’s cli-fi novel Juice and she also mentioned Mike Joy’s memoir The Fight for Fresh Water. Cathrine’s person of the year was David Seymour.
* Robert Patman on geopolitics. His book of the year was Terence O’Brien’s Consolations of Insignificance: A New Zealand Diplomatic Memoir, which was also Helen Clark’s book of the year, and Robert’s person of the year was Francesca Albanese, the UN Special Rapporteur for the Occupied Palestinian Territories.
* Helen Clark on geopolitics and local politics. Her person of the year was Donald Trump.
* Elaine Monaghan on US politics and geopolitics. Her book of the year was Marsha Linehan’s memoir Building a Life Worth Living. Her person of the year was Mazen al Hamada, a Syrian activist who was tortured by the Syrian regime, left Syria in 2013, returned four years ago, was captured, tortured again and killed just before the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad. ABC
* Josie Pagani on geopolitics and local politics. Here book of the year was Tony Blair’s On Leadership and her person of the year was fictional UK Labour MP Fiona Wilson. UK Press Association
* Peter Bale book of the year was Richard Flanagan’s memoir Question 7 and his person of the year was Gisèle Pelicot, the French woman who came forward to testify in the rape trial of her husband, Dominique Pelicot, who was jailed last night for 20 years. The Guardian
* Bernard Hickey’s podcast of the year was The Spinoff’s Juggernaut podcast on the fourth Labour Government by Toby Manhire & Te Aihe Butler. His person of the year was Simeon Brown in Aotearoa, and Donald Trump internationally.
Each of the panellists and hosts also gave their predictions for 2025 near the end. Listen to the podcast to find out what they were. :)
The Hoon’s podcast version above was recorded on Thursday night during a live webinar for over 200 paying subscribers and was produced and edited by Simon Josey.
The Hoon won the silver award for best current affairs podcast in this year’s New Zealand Podcast awards.
This was the last Hoon for 2024. Our first Hoon of 2025 will be on Thursday, January 23 (not not January 16 as mentioned in the podcast), although this could change with events…dear boy.
(This is a sampler for all free subscribers and anyone else who stumbles on it. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, we’re able to spread my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction other public venues. Join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments, and by subscribing in full.)
Ngā mihi nui.
Bernard

This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe
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The Hoon around the week to December 13
12 dec· The Hoon
The podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers on Thursday night features co-hosts Bernard Hickey & Peter Bale talking about the week’s news with:
* Cathrine Dyer on the Government’s inadequate final emissions reduction plan and pro-business climate appointments;
* Robert Patman on the lightening overthrow of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria and what might happen next in Ukraine as the world’s diplomats, traders and markets brace for Donald Trump’s re-inauguation on January 10.
The Hoon’s podcast version above was recorded on Thursday night during a live webinar for over 200 paying subscribers and was produced by Simon Josey.
The Hoon won the silver award for best current affairs podcast in this year’s New Zealand Podcast awards.
This is the second-to-last Hoon for 2024. Our special last edition of the year is on December 19 and will include our regulars Cathrine Dyer and Robert Patman, plus special guests Helen Clark and Josie Pagani. Our first Hoon of 2025 will be on Thursday, January 23.
(This is a sampler for all free subscribers and anyone else who stumbles on it. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, we’re able to spread my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction other public venues. Join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments, and by subscribing in full.)
Ngā mihi nui.
Bernard

This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe
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Zijn er afleveringen die ontbreken?

Klik hier om de feed te vernieuwen.
The Hoon around the week to December 6
5 dec· The Hoon
The podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers on Thursday night features co-hosts Bernard Hickey & Peter Bale talking about the week’s news with:
* Cathrine Dyer on Trade and Agriculture Minister Todd McClay saying New Zealand would not buy emissions credits overseas, effectively admitting we’ll renege on our Paris commitments. (RNZ)
* Robert Patman on the Israel vs Gaza/Iran/Lebanon and Ukraine/Nato vs Russia/North Korea conflicts, Donald Trump’s transition and whether New Zealand joins AUKUS, including Labour’s pledge to pull out if National takes New Zealand in.
* Special guest Troy Baisden, the Co-President of the NZ Association of Scientists, on the Government’s shock decision on Wednesday to completely stop funding pure science research in humanities and social sciences via the Marsden fund.
The Hoon’s podcast version above was recorded on Thursday night during a live webinar for over 200 paying subscribers and was produced by Simon Josey.
The Hoon won the silver award for best current affairs podcast in this year’s New Zealand Podcast awards.
(This is a sampler for all free subscribers and anyone else who stumbles on it. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, we’re able to spread my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction other public venues. Join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments, and by subscribing in full.)
Ngā mihi nui.
Bernard

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The Hoon around the week to November 29
28 nov· The Hoon
The podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers on Thursday night features co-hosts Bernard Hickey & Peter Bale talking about the week’s news with:
* Robert Patman on the Israel vs Gaza/Iran/Lebanon, Ukraine/Nato vs Russia/North Korea and whether NZ joins AUKUS;
* Special guest Community Housing Aotearoa CEO Paul Gilberd talking about the Community Housing Provider (CHiPs) sector’s hopes for a Government guarantee to unleash thousands of new homes with fund from KiwiSaver and pension funds here.
The Hoon’s podcast version above was recorded on Thursday night during a live webinar for over 200 paying subscribers and was produced by Simon Josey.
The Hoon won the silver award for best current affairs podcast in this year’s New Zealand Podcast awards announced yesterday.
(This is a sampler for all free subscribers and anyone else who stumbles on it. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, we’re able to spread my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction other public venues. Join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments, and by subscribing in full.)
Ngā mihi nui.
Bernard

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The Hoon around the week to November 22
22 nov· The Hoon
The podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers on Thursday night features co-hosts Bernard Hickey & Peter Bale talking about the week’s news with:
* Robert Patman on the US Presidential elections, Israel vs Gaza/Iran/Lebanon, Ukraine/Nato vs Russia/North Korea and whether NZ now joins AUKUS;
* Special guest Helen Clark on the issues above, plus dramas in the UN, the hikoi this week, the media and politics and her own experience with Foreshore & Seabed.
* Special guest Susan St John on the letter from 15 economists calling on the Government to suspend its austerity programme, and whether the NZ Super Fund should have to pay tax.
The Hoon’s podcast version above was recorded on Thursday night during a live webinar for over 200 paying subscribers and was produced by Simon Josey.
(This is a sampler for all free subscribers and anyone else who stumbles on it. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, we’re able to spread my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction other public venues. Join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments, and by subscribing in full.)
Ngā mihi nui.
Bernard

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The Hoon around the week to November 15
14 nov· The Hoon
The podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers on Thursday night features co-hosts Bernard Hickey & Peter Bale talking about the week’s news with:
* The Kākā’s climate correspondent Cathrine Dyer on the latest climate news, including from COP29 this week;
* Robert Patman on the US Presidential elections, Israel vs Gaza/Iran/Lebanon, Ukraine/Nato vs Russia/North Korea and whether NZ now joins AUKUS.
* Special guest Elaine Monaghan on Donald Trump’s win in the US Presidential elections. She is a professor of practice in journalism at Indiana University in Bloomington, and contributed to Reuters coverage of Ukraine, having long been a Reuters correspondent in Moscow, Kyiv and Washington. She was also a correspondent for The Times in Washington and co-authored the 2006 book On the Brink: An Insider's Account of How the White House Compromised American Intelligence.
* Special guest David Tong, Global Industry Campaign Manager at Oil Change International, speaking from COP29 in Baku.
The Hoon’s podcast version above was recorded on Thursday night during a live webinar for over 200 paying subscribers and was produced by Simon Josey.
(This is a sampler for all free subscribers and anyone else who stumbles on it. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, we’re able to spread my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction other public venues. Join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments, and by subscribing in full.)
Ngā mihi nui.
Bernard

This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe
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The Hoon around the week to November 8
7 nov· The Hoon
The podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers on Thursday night features co-hosts Bernard Hickey & Peter Bale talking about the week’s news with:
* The Kākā’s climate correspondent Cathrine Dyer on the latest climate news, including how Donald Trump’s re-election and sweep of the Congress changes the equations;
* Robert Patman on the US Presidential elections, Israel vs Gaza/Iran/Lebanon, Ukraine/Natio vs Russia/North Korea and whether NZ now joins AUKUS.
* Special guest Elaine Monaghan on Donald Trump’s win in the US Presidential elections. She is a professor of practice in journalism at Indiana University in Bloomington, and contributed to Reuters coverage of Ukraine, having long been a Reuters correspondent in Moscow, Kyiv and Washington. She was also a correspondent for The Times in Washington and co-authored the 2006 book On the Brink: An Insider's Account of How the White House Compromised American Intelligence.
* Special guest CTU Chief Economist Craig Renney on this week’s cost of living figures, jobs figures and Budget figures in Aotearoa.
The Hoon’s podcast version above was recorded on Thursday night during a live webinar for over 200 paying subscribers and was produced by Simon Josey.
(This is a sampler for all free subscribers and anyone else who stumbles on it. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, we’re able to spread my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction other public venues. Join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments, and by subscribing in full.)
Ngā mihi nui.
Bernard

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The Hoon around the week to November 1
31 okt· The Hoon
The podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers on Thursday night features co-hosts Bernard Hickey & Peter Bale talking about the week’s news with:
* The Kākā’s climate correspondent Cathrine Dyer on the latest climate news, including research showing the lethality of gas hobs and research on the health effects of climate change;
* Robert Patman on the US Presidential elections and Israel’s banning of UNRWA.
* Special guest Elaine Monaghan, who is a professor of practice in journalism at Indiana University in Bloomington, and contributed to Reuters coverage of Ukraine, having long been a Reuters correspondent in Moscow, Kyiv and Washington. She was also a correspondent for The Times in Washington and co-authored the 2006 book On the Brink: An Insider's Account of How the White House Compromised American Intelligence.
The Hoon’s podcast version above was recorded on Thursday night during a live webinar for over 120 paying subscribers and was produced by Simon Josey.
Peter mentioned his article in this week’s Listener about the history of Polish refugee children in New Zealand.
Peter also mentioned a report in The Lancet on climate change and health.
Cathrine referred to the ‘real zero’ pledge in the climate news section.
(This is a sampler for all free subscribers and anyone else who stumbles on it. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, we’re able to spread my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction other public venues. Join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments, and by subscribing in full.)
Ngā mihi nui.
Bernard

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The Hoon around the week to October 25
24 okt· The Hoon
The podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers on Thursday night features co-hosts Bernard Hickey & Peter Bale talking about the week’s news with:
* The Kākā’s climate correspondent Cathrine Dyer on the latest climate news, including another extreme climate event in the United States;
* Robert Patman on the escalating conflict between Israel, Iran and Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon; and,
* Special guest Elaine Monaghan, who is a professor of practice in journalism at Indiana University in Bloomington, and contributed to Reuters coverage of Ukraine, having long been a Reuters correspondent in Moscow, Kyiv and Washington. She was also a correspondent for The Times in Washington and co-authored the 2006 book On the Brink: An Insider's Account of How the White House Compromised American Intelligence.
The Hoon’s podcast version above was recorded on Thursday night during a live webinar for over 120 paying subscribers and was produced by Simon Josey.
(This is a sampler for all free subscribers and anyone else who stumbles on it. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, we’re able to spread my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction other public venues. Join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments, and by subscribing in full.)
Ngā mihi nui.
Bernard

This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe
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The Hoon around the week to October 4
3 okt· The Hoon
The podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers on Thursday night features co-hosts Bernard Hickey & Peter Bale talking about the week’s news with:
* The Kākā’s climate correspondent Cathrine Dyer on the latest climate news, including another extreme climate event in the United States;
* Robert Patman on the escalating conflict between Israel, Iran and Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon; and,
* Special guest Dr David Galler, a former intensive care specialist at Middlemore Hospital, board member of the Health Coalition Aotearoa and author of the semi-autobiographical book Things That Matter: Stories of Life & Death.
The Hoon’s podcast version above was recorded on Thursday night during a live webinar for over 120 paying subscribers and was produced by Simon Josey.
Bernard mentioned in the episode he interviewed former Kāinga Ora director Philippa Howden-Chapman at a public event in Auckland last Friday night. The video of that is here and below.
(This is a sampler for all free subscribers and anyone else who stumbles on it. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, we’re able to spread my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction other public venues. Join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments, and by subscribing in full.)
Ngā mihi nui.
Bernard

This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe
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The Hoon around the week to Sept 27
26 sep· The Hoon
The podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers on Thursday night features co-hosts Bernard Hickey & Peter Bale talking about the week’s news with:
* The Kākā’s climate correspondent Cathrine Dyer on the latest climate news, including research suggesting a doubling of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere could trigger 8° of warming in the long run;
* Robert Patman on the escalating conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon, Vladimir Putin’s latest nuclear threats, Winston Peters’ comments this at the UN General Assembly;
* Matt Halliday on the 'F list' of ad and PR agencies helping fossil fuel companies in NZ. He also talked about a court case on greenwashing launched by activist Mike Smith (Guardian) and one against Z Energy by Consumer NZ, Lawyers for Climate Action and the Environmental Law Initiative. (RNZ)
The Hoon’s podcast version above was recorded on Thursday night during a live webinar for over 120 paying subscribers and was produced by Simon Josey.
Bernard mentioned at the beginning of the episode he would be interviewing former Kāinga Ora director Philippa Howden-Chapman at a public event in Auckland from 6.30 pm tonight. Details are here.
(This is a sampler for all free subscribers and anyone else who stumbles on it. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, we’re able to spread my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction other public venues. Join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments, and by subscribing in full.)
Ngā mihi nui.
Bernard

This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe
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The Hoon around the week to Sept 20
19 sep· The Hoon
The podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers on Thursday night features co-host Bernard Hickey talking about the week’s news with:
* The Kākā’s climate correspondent Cathrine Dyer on the latest climate news, including media coverage of extreme events and how big tech is gobbling up so much renewable power growth;
* Robert Patman on exploding pagers and walkie-talkies in Lebanon, an exploding munitions dump deep inside Russia and an intensifying debate on Aukus; and
* Special guest CTU Chief Economist Craig Renney on Aotearoa’s deepest real per capita recession in modern times.
The Hoon’s podcast version above was recorded on Thursday night during a live webinar for over 120 paying subscribers and was produced by Simon Josey.
(This is a sampler for all free subscribers and anyone else who stumbles on it. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, we’re able to spread my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction other public venues. Join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments, and by subscribing in full.)
Ngā mihi nui.
Bernard

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The Hoon around the week to Sept 13
13 sep· The Hoon
The podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers on Thursday night features co-hosts Bernard Hickey and Peter Bale talking about the week’s news with:
* The Kākā’s climate correspondent Cathrine Dyer on the latest climate science on rising temperatures and the climate implications of the US Presidential elections;
* Robert Patman and special guests Janet Anderson and Stephanie van den Berg, the hosts of their international justice podcast Asymmetrical Haircuts;
* Special guest Vincent O’Malley, the historian and author who has published numerous books on the New Zealand Wars, including his latest, The Invasion of Waikato / Te Riri ki Tainui, via BWB.
The Hoon’s podcast version above was recorded on Thursday night during a live webinar for over 120 paying subscribers and was produced by Simon Josey.
(This is a sampler for all free subscribers and anyone else who stumbles on it. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, we’re able to spread my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction other public venues. Join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments, and by subscribing in full.)
Ngā mihi nui.
Bernard

This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe
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Dead even tie for hottest August ever
6 sep· The Hoon
Long stories short, here’s the top six news items of note in climate news for Aotearoa-NZ this week, and a discussion above between Bernard Hickey and The Kākā’s climate correspondent Cathrine Dyer:
* The month of August was 1.49˚C warmer than pre-industrial levels, tying with 2023 for the warmest August ever, according to the EU’s Copernicus climate dataset. This is despite the absence of El Niño’s heat amplifying effects that were present last year.
* The Government’s National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) plans on executing a U-turn, taking us back in time to a car-dependent past, according to University of Auckland academic Timothy Welch in The Conversation. The worst thing, he suggests, is that most of the $8 billion in planned spending will go on planning, design and preparatory work, rather than actual construction.
* Debate about whether ‘climate intellectuals’ should focus on disinformation and misinformation underestimates the political versus the technical obstacles to decarbonisation, according Aaron Regunberg in the Jacobin. The critique was ‘story of the week’ on the website skepticalscience.com, who argue that systematic climate mitigation is an inherently political matter.
* The population effects of climate displacement are causing increasing concern in the US. “When multiple cataclysmic disasters strike one region in quick succession, climate change-driven phenomena called “compounding events,” they create overlapping ripples of displacement, making the movement that much harder to track. If it was tracked in real time, local officials would see disturbing trends,” according to this gnarly tale in The Grist.
* Glaciologists are in a race to collect ancient virus specimens from fast-melting glaciers after finding 1,700 mostly new-to-science ones in Tibet. Meanwhile other scientists are coming up with massive geo-engineering plans to try to slow the collapse of the so-called Doomsday Glacier in Antarctica.
* The chart of the week is putting the terrors into gulf coast communities in the US.
(See more detail and analysis below, and in the video and podcast above. Cathrine Dyer’s journalism on climate and the environment is available free to all paying and non-paying subscribers to The Kākā and the public. It is made possible by subscribers signing up to the paid tier to ensure this sort of public interest journalism is fully available in public to read, listen to and share. Cathrine wrote the wrap. Bernard edited it. Lynn copy-edited and illustrated it.)
1. A dead heat in August
August 2024 has come in at +1.49˚C above pre-industrial levels, tying with 2023 for the warmest August on record, according to the Copernicus ECMWF dataset.
This means 2024 is virtually certain to break the record for hottest year ever, according to climate scientist Zeke Hausfather.
Source: Zeke Hausfather on X.com
While temperatures in August 2023 were in the grip of an El Niño, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has now been neutral for several months. That should have resulted in temperatures dropping through the back half of 2024 compared to the El Niño elevated 2023. The size of the heat anomaly has been declining, but the effect is more muted than it should be. The decline is more visible in sea surface temperatures – it helps to look at the two side-by-side:
Source: Copernicus Climate Pulse
Some countries have been sweltering through record-breaking temperatures. Japan’s hottest summer ever has produced thousands of “extreme heat” events.
“The average temperature in June, July and August was 1.76C higher than the average recorded between 1991 and 2020, the Japan meteorological agency said, according to Kyodo news agency.
It was the hottest summer since comparable records were first kept in 1898 and tied the record set in 2023, the agency said. Japan has recorded 8,821 instances of “extreme heat” – a temperature of 35C or higher – so far this year, easily beating the previous record of 6,692 set in 2023, it added.” Source: The Guardian
Large swathes of China also experienced their hottest August ever. China has a three-tier warning system for temperatures and was issuing warnings at the highest tier (above 40˚C) for 12 consecutive days in late August.
Meantime Australia, where it is meant to still be winter, was recording temperatures in excess of 40˚C in a series of unusual winter heatwaves. It was not just the extreme temperature but the scale:
“Bureau of Meteorology maps showed a giant mass of extreme heat from near Brisbane in the east to the interior of Western Australia – a distance of about 3700km.
Data on Wednesday showed 48% of the country experienced maximum temperatures in the hottest 1% on record for August.
Nadine D’Argent, a climatology specialist at the bureau, said there were several “wow moments” as the temperature data came in.
“Seeing 40C in August is quite rare. We generally don’t see that until late September but we’ve had 16 instances where temperatures have gone above 40C.”” Source: The Guardian
2. The land transport U-turn taking us back to the past
The Government’s evidence-free National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) plans on executing a U-turn and taking us back to a car-dependent past, according to University of Auckland academic Timothy Welch in The Conversation.
The problem – well, one of the problems - is that our driver, Simeon Brown, hasn’t looked over his shoulder for following traffic, or at the dashboard for useful statistics, before attempting to execute the manoeuvre.
The $8 billion price tag, Welch points out, won’t actually build anything for decades. The massive price tag is for planning, design and preparatory work (presumably headed for the pockets of some much-maligned contractors) rather than actual construction.
“The approach effectively commits billions in taxpayer dollars to preparatory work without delivering any tangible infrastructure improvements. New Zealanders will likely find themselves stuck in worsening traffic, waiting for highways that may never materialise.
These projects could easily be sidelined by future budget constraints or changing political priorities. A growing recognition of induced demand – where new roads generate more traffic rather than alleviate congestion – and the looming challenges of climate change risk these carbon-intensive projects being obsolete before they even begin.
Meanwhile, projects that could address far more severe congestion in the main cities are being cut back or indefinitely postponed.” Source: The Conversation.
On the one hand, there is hope that these backward looking, demand-inducing “asphalt aspirations” will melt before our eyes, with some good sense materialising before they do. On the other hand, nobody gets what they want anymore (credit to Marlon Williams Music). Read it, or sing it, and weep.
3. Fighting Climate disinformation the urgent priority
A debate about the value of focusing effort on fighting climate disinformation (and misinformation) has been bubbling quietly in climate circles this week after an article by Holly Buck appeared in Jacobin, followed swiftly by a powerful critique from Aaron Regunberg.
Buck claims that the amount of attention currently being placed on climate misinformation is creating a sizeable distraction, particularly in the US, from the funding that is landing on the ground courtesy of Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).
‘Climate intellectuals’ ought to be focusing on efforts on the ground, knitting together the people working on resilience, and creating a narrative story that fuels motivation, Buck claims, instead of waging a “an information war focused on uncovering what Big Oil knew and policing speech.” Her assumption is that such climate disinformation does little to curtail climate action.
But Regunburg suggests this underestimates the political versus the technical obstacles to decarbonisation.
“The fossil fuel industry remains the biggest obstacle to the clean-energy transition, and climate disinformation remains its most potent tool. It is very much in Big Oil’s interest for climate advocates to, as Buck suggests, stop “obsessing over climate disinformation.” But we should resist such suggestions. The climate movement can walk and chew gum at the same time; we can work hard to fight climate disinformation while using other on-the-ground organizing frames when they’re more appropriate. Indeed, given the urgent tipping point deadlines the climate crisis imposes on us, we don’t have time for anything less.”
The extent to which public finances, including in Biden’s IRA, are being directed toward fossil-fuel backed projects that are based on a layer cake of misinformation is unignorable. It could very well succeed in driving global emissions into overshoot and diverting global financing toward speculative technologies that may never work at the scale required.
The website skepticalscience.com covered the debate as their ‘story of the week’, saying that “Downplaying or ignoring intentional deceit delivered on an industrial scale is a bit like thinking that wishing hard enough to stay dry is as good as an umbrella when encountering a rainstorm. Climate remedy will happen via effective public policy, public policy is an outcome of politics and hence systematic climate mitigation is an inherently political matter.”
4. Disturbing trends in climate displacement
“Those who remained did so for one of two reasons: They could afford to stay, or they couldn’t afford to leave.”
For many of us, the concept of climate displacement or migration is something we assume will happen to other people, mostly in developing countries or low-lying island nations. We also fail to recognise the immobility of those who don’t or can’t migrate as an adaptative response to increasing risks.
The Grist gives us a gnarly tale this week about the largely under-estimated and under-reported extent of climate displacement already occurring in the US. They ask whether the US census, undertaken once per decade and which then informs district lines, congressional representation, and the distribution of federal and state funding, can keep up.
“‘After Hurricane Katrina in 2005, for example, New Orleans knocked down much of its affordable housing, damaged during the hurricane, deeming it a safety hazard. The new buildings that went up were more expensive, and the new construction very quickly gentrified neighborhoods, forcing even more people out in a second, extended wave of displacement. New Orleans absolutely became a city that was whiter and wealthier than it was beforehand,’ said Daniel Aldrich, a professor of political science at Northeastern University. But it was difficult to capture those changes as they were happening, Aldrich said, because the initial population shifts occurred so quickly and because many of the people who left the city were renters.” Source: The Grist
The population effects of the 2010 and 2011 earthquakes in Christchurch offer some local insight into the way post-disaster displacement can change a city or region. Christchurch’s population composition changed in terms of gender, age and ethnicity with both temporary and more lasting effects.
5. Gotta catch ‘em all: Collecting ancient viruses
Scientists have uncovered more than 1,700 ancient viruses from a glacier in Tibet, most of them not previously known to science. They date back as far as 41,000 years and differ markedly between colder and warmer eras, shedding light on how life evolved through previous climate shifts. The scientists are now in a race to collect as many more as they can before the glaciers melt.
Also on the subject of glaciers: the Doomsday or Thwaites Glacier is back in the news. Fears that the glacier may be on the verge of total collapse were somewhat allayed by a new modelling study published last week suggesting that at least one possible trigger was less likely than previously thought. However, the question of whether the glacier has already passed the point of no return, and entered a death spiral remain. The latest suggestion is that geo-engineering, in the form of a massive underwater curtain, up to fifty miles across, could be erected to seal off the Thwaites Glacier and adjacent Pine Island Glacier, from the remorseless Antarctic current.
“Opponents of the plans, including many glaciologists, say such outlandish proposals are a dangerous diversion from the real task of mitigating climate change by curbing carbon emissions. But advocates say the two glaciers can’t wait. “We can’t mitigate our way out of this,” says Moore. “We need other tools.”” Source: YaleEnvironment360
6. Chart of the week: Heat content beyond the boundaries
Heat content in the Gulf of Mexico is currently hotter than it’s ever been, with a single chart explaining the region’s looming hurricane problem, according to Vox.
Chart source: Brian McNoldy/ University of Miami ‘Ocean Heat Content’ series
Ka kite ano
Bernard and Cathrine

This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe
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The Hoon around the week to Sept 7
6 sep· The Hoon
The podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers on Thursday night features co-hosts Bernard Hickey and Peter Bale talking about the week’s news with:
* The Kākā’s climate correspondent Cathrine Dyer on the latest climate science on rising temperatures and the debate about how to responde to climate disinformation;
* Robert Patman and special guest Helen Clark on the latest from Gaza and AUKUS, plus Helen Clark on the moves to restrict iwi claims on the Foreshore and Seabed; and,
* Special guest Caroline Shaw, Associate Professor in the Department of Public Health at the University of Otago, Wellington, who has just written an Op-Ed in The Conversation on research about the health benefits of cycling.
The Hoon’s podcast version above was recorded on Thursday night during a live webinar for over 120 paying subscribers and was produced by Simon Josey.
(This is a sampler for all free subscribers and anyone else who stumbles on it. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, we’re able to spread my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction other public venues. Join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments, and by subscribing in full.)
Ngā mihi nui.
Bernard

This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe
- Luisteren Nogmaals beluisteren Doorgaan Wordt afgespeeld...
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Ditch the climate double speak and get real
29 aug· The Hoon
Long stories short, here’s the top six news items of note in climate news for Aotearoa-NZ this week, and a discussion above between Bernard Hickey and The Kākā’s climate correspondent Cathrine Dyer:
* The Government announced changes to the Fast-Track Approvals Bill on Sunday, backing off from the contentious proposal to give final say on development projects to just three government Ministers. Instead they now propose to allow the expert panel (selected by a government-appointed convenor) to make the final determinations. That change may appear substantive, but critics argue that it is a classic 'bait and switch'.
* In the wake of this, we ask whether the standard ‘public submissions’ approach to such powerful legislation does sufficient service to deliberative democracy? What would a genuinely responsive consultation process look like?
* Academics James Dyke, Robert Watson and Wolfgang Knorr deconstruct climate double-speak in this must read article in The Conversation UK. They argue that the concept of ‘overshoot’ and the ‘net zero’ Paris approach are increasingly detached from reality and have become more like science fiction.
* A new global stocktake study evaluated 1500 climate policies implemented over the last 25 years identified just 63 successful interventions. Collectively, these policies reduced emissions by between 0.6 billion and 1.8 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) We emit over 35 billion tonnes globally every year.
* In NZ chart of the week, there’s a startling look at actually how much gross emissions are expected to fall here, and where the real burden lies; and,
* In global graphic of the week, there’s a new type of climate stripes.
(See more detail and analysis below, and in the video and podcast above. Cathrine Dyer’s journalism on climate and the environment is available free to all paying and non-paying subscribers to The Kākā and the public. It is made possible by subscribers signing up to the paid tier to ensure this sort of public interest journalism is fully available in public to read, listen to and share. Cathrine wrote the wrap. Bernard edited it. Lynn copy-edited and illustrated it.)
1. Ministerial override removed - but watch for the ‘bait & switch’
On Sunday, the coalition government announced five proposed changes to Fast-Track legislation in response to public submissions.
The headline change dilutes the concentration of power whereby three government ministers were to have the final say over development projects, with power to overrule an expert panel. Under the new proposal, the expert panel will have the final say.
While some critics are satisfied that their concerns have been heard, others are pointing to the landing of a predicted bait and switch, as Fox Meyer reports;
“On the first day of oral submissions for the fast-track bill, Forest & Bird’s chief executive Nicola Toki warned of a bait and switch: “Removal of ministerial override is meaningless unless environmental protections and public participation in existing legislation is retained. I want to make that really clear: that can’t be the only thing.”
Other submitters pointed to legal vulnerabilities, Treaty obligations and a lack of environmental provisions as their chief concerns.“ Newsroom
The overarching aim of the bill is to facilitate economic development, but the failure to include any environmental consideration in the Bill’s framing was highlighted during oral submissions, including by the Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment, Simon Upton, whose concise and impactful submission you may recall.
Upton said the bill posed “significant risks to the environment”, comparing it to the Muldoon government’s similar – and deeply unpopular – legislation: “Even the much-maligned National Development Act 1979 had more environmental checks and balances.” Upton didn’t hold back, writing that the bill would “achieve sub-optimal outcomes through poor decision-making, poor allocation of resources, a lack of legislative durability, and increased litigation risk.” The Spinoff
Beyond scrapping the role of ministers as final decision-makers, and elevating environmental considerations in the process, Upton also said that project eligibility should be restricted to those that provide significant public benefits rather than private gains alone. Neither of those recommendations, nor the Auditor-General’s urging for the inclusion of better tools for managing conflict, have been meaningfully taken up.
2. Is the public submissions approach fit for purpose?
The Fast-Track Bill attracted a high number of submissions, some 27,000 from individuals and organisations.
However, a recent study of submissions to the Auckland 2050 plans showed huge demographic asymmetries (older, wealthier, Pākehā voices were loudest) .
The process is also largely one way, with no assurance that policymakers will make adjustments that are in any way scaled to the size or seriousness of the public response.
Koi Tū, The Centre for Informed Futures, housed at the University of Auckland, has been looking at alternative models for holding complex public conversations, resulting in this analysis for the International Public Policy Observatory (IPPO). The role of citizen assemblies in complex decision-making is growing internationally and has seen some early success here.
Where the current coalition Government shows no sign of deepening public involvement in policymaking (rather, the opposite), we see enormous potential for a broad expansion in the number and types of public conversations we have about complex issues ahead of the next election, but we desperately need to equip people with the tools and opportunities to have them.
3. Time to get real
On the subject of critical conversations – there is a ‘must read’ one in The Conversation UK this week on the overshoot myth.
Academics James Dyke, Robert Watson and Wolfgang Knorr use plain language to address the dissolution of the Paris Agreement’s aims into failed framings designed to ‘work-around’ the need to reduce fossil fuel use, the failure of any country to strengthen its pledges at the last three COPs while emissions continued to grow, the warning signs we have ignored including the record temperatures over the past two years (that we cannot fully explain) and the looming threat of failing natural carbon sinks and climate tipping points. Instead, we have implicitly accepted overshoot scenarios that rely on science fiction solutions to rectify the situation sometime in the future.
“It’s clear that the commitments countries have made to date as part of the Paris agreement will not keep humanity safe while carbon emissions and temperatures continue to break records. Indeed, proposing to spend trillions of dollars over this century to suck carbon dioxide out of the air, or the myriad other ways to hack the climate is an acknowledgement that the world’s largest polluters are not going to curb the burning of fossil fuels.
Direct Air Capture (DAC), Bio Energy Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS), enhanced ocean alkalinity, biochar, sulphate aerosol injection, cirrus cloud thinning – the entire wacky races of carbon dioxide removal and geoengineering only makes sense in a world of failed climate policy.” The Conversation UK.
The article cuts through climate double-speak to debunk claims such as Exxon’s call to use carbon capture and storage (CCS) to produce net zero hydrogen from fossil fuels, pointing to the recent exposure of industry-wide greenwashing on CCS. They also highlight the folly of relying on large-scale BECCS in IPCC pathways that stay below 2˚C, despite clear evidence that it would have very “adverse effects on biodiversity, and food and water security given the large amounts of land that would be given over to fast growing monoculture tree plantations.” As we reported last week, the burning of biomass appears to be increasing carbon dioxide emissions at the moment, with the UK’s Drax biomass power station producing four times as much carbon dioxide as the country’s largest coal-fired station, despite millions in emissions trading scheme subsidies.
Dyke, Watson and Knorr make four suggestions: 1) Leave fossil fuels in the ground, 2) Ditch net zero crystal ball gazing targets, 3) Base policy on credible science and engineering (i.e. focus on doing the things we already know work) and 4) Get real!
4. Taking of stock of what has worked
While global climate policy approaches appear to have largely failed, there is a small subset of policies being implemented by countries that have proven successful in reducing emissions.
A new global stock-take study evaluated 1500 climate policies implemented in 41 countries across six continents over the last 25 years, identifying just 63 cases in which large emissions reductions materialised as a result of policy action (including in Aotearoa).
The amount of emissions reduced by these policies is modest – collectively between 0.6 billion and 1.8 billion metric tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) over the entire study period (we emit over 35 billion tonnes of CO2 globally every year), so a gradual adoption of these climate policies will not suffice.
However, the insights generated by the work should provide building blocks that inform future paths.
The study, which used machine-learning approaches to analyse data, found an important role for market- or price-based mechanisms within ‘well-designed policy mixes’ in developed countries, with a stronger role for more regulatory approaches in developing countries.
While the importance of sector-based strategies and mixed policy approaches have been pointed out before (it was mentioned in the latest IPCC working group III report), it has been difficult to assess which combinations of policies “effectively unfold complementarities” to deliver stronger emissions reductions. This is the first study that has been able to empirically evaluate mixes of multiple, simultaneously combined policy instruments.
Of the successful policy interventions identified, 24 were in the building sector, 19 were in transport, 16 in industry and 10 cases were in electricity sectors.
Effective Policies and Policy Mixes
Fig. 4. Effective policies and policy mixes from the paper Climate policies that achieved major emissions reductions: Global evidence from two decades
(A) On the basis of point estimates for country-specific breaks in emissions (tables S12 to S19), we compared the average effect sizes of all breaks in which a policy instrument appears individually with that of all breaks in which this policy instrument appears in a mix. For non–price-based policies, the black thick line also indicates the average effect size of a mix with a given policy instrument and pricing (through taxation or reduced fossil fuel subsidies). (B) Euler diagrams (SM materials and methods) show which combinations of policy types [definitions of categories are provided in (A), x axis] are effective in each sector separately for developed and developing economies. For each circle area, the percentage indicates which share of successful interventions in this sector was made up by a specific individual policy type or a specific combination of policy types. An individual policy type encompasses breaks that match a single policy instrument (for example, one subsidy scheme) or a combination of policy instruments of the same type (for example, two or more different subsidy schemes).
5. NZ chart of the week
Submissions have now closed on the Government’s ERP2 consultation, but just before they closed, climate policy and carbon market expert Christina Hood shared these charts on LinkedIn, showing just how few gross emissions reductions (the orange part) are planned compared to the Climate Commission’s central (i.e. not most ambitious) scenario. It should be noted that most of the orange you can (just barely) see in the Government’s EPR2 proposal (on the left) is based on an assumption about CCS potential.
According to Hood “In the government's path, if ambition on gross reductions stays the same, to meet the third budget new forestry planting between now and 2030 would need to be double what is suggested (i.e. 54 thousand hectares per year (kha/yr) rather than 27kha/yr).”
The Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment (PCE) has just released details of their submission on the plan. In short, the submission criticises the ‘least-cost approach’ for risking passing on significant costs to future generations, over-reliance on the ETS, and lack of policy coherency. They recommend:
* forestry be decoupled from the NZ ETS, with alternative incentives applied to drive afforestation
* a much greater margin of error be built into the emissions budgets
* delivery of an Energy Strategy to address long-term issues in the energy sector
* greater support for existing and affordable emissions reduction technologies in transport, energy and agriculture
* an aviation departure levy on all flights out of New Zealand be imposed to fund possible solutions for aviation emissions
6. Global chart of the week: The Pacific Ocean’s acidification stripes
We spoke last week about ocean heating and some of the effects it was having, noting in passing that the oceans absorb about 25% of the carbon dioxide released as a result of human activity. As most readers will be aware, that carbon dioxide is causing ocean acidification, and you can see just how much from both a global perspective and across various marine ecosystems and ocean basins at this website. The chart below shows the ocean acidification stripes for the Pacific Ocean. Even if carbon dioxide emissions were not causing global warming, we would still need to rapidly phase out fossil fuels because of their effect on another planetary boundary, ocean acidification.
Ka kite ano
Bernard and Cathrine

This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe
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The Hoon around the week to August 30
29 aug· The Hoon
The podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers on Thursday night features co-hosts Bernard Hickey and Peter Bale talking about the week’s news with:
* The Kākā’s climate correspondent Cathrine Dyer on the latest science of changing sea temperatures and which emissions policies actually work;
* Robert Patman on the latest from Ukraine, Gaza and AUKUS II;
* Journalist and author Aaron Smale talking about his book just published by BWB called: Tairāwhiti: Pine, Profit and the Cyclone, and his work covering abuse in state care.
The Hoon’s podcast version above was recorded on Thursday night during a live webinar for over 120 paying subscribers and was produced by Simon Josey.
(This is a sampler for all free subscribers and anyone else who stumbles on it. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, we’re able to spread my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction other public venues. Join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments, and by subscribing in full.)
Ngā mihi nui.
Bernard

This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe
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Weirdly hot oceans that are losing their breath, and solar panels in the wrong place
23 aug· The Hoon
Long stories short, here’s the top six news items of note in climate news for Aotearoa-NZ this week, and a discussion above between Bernard Hickey and The Kākā’s climate correspondent Cathrine Dyer:
* Scientists are not entirely sure why sea surface temperatures have been accelerating so quickly over the past year, at the same time as air surface temperatures.
* A study on the effects of storms in the Southern Ocean has found they are triggering an outgassing of carbon dioxide, which may affect their ability to absorb carbon in the future. Nearly half of all current ocean carbon uptake is believed to occur in the Southern Ocean.
* Another study in the journal Nature found that marine heatwaves caused by climate change are triggering low-oxygen extreme events. “[O]ur findings suggest the ocean is losing its breath under the influence of heatwaves, potentially experiencing more severe damage than previously anticipated.”
* Finally, another study has found that just 1.5°C of subsurface ocean warming triggered repeated Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) collapses during the Pliocene, a period considered a good analogue for current and future sea level. These AIS collapses contributed up to 25m of sea level change.
* Understanding why oceans are ‘weirdly hot’ at the moment, the subject of this analysis in NPR, has enormous consequences for what we might expect in the future. A possible link to shipping pollution is gaining credence.
* Energy think tank Ember’s 2024 Global Electricity Review shows the meteoric rise of solar capacity, but also highlights the fact that related efficiency gains would be much higher if they were being built in sunnier countries. This suggests that OECD countries should invest more in climate financing for solar installations in developing countries, while focusing on demand-side reductions in fossil demand at home (although that’s not exactly how Ember put it).
(See more detail and analysis below, and in the video and podcast above. Cathrine Dyer’s journalism on climate and the environment is available free to all paying and non-paying subscribers to The Kākā and the public. It is made possible by subscribers signing up to the paid tier to ensure this sort of public interest journalism is fully available in public to read, listen to and share. Cathrine wrote the wrap. Bernard edited it. Lynn copy-edited and illustrated it.)
1. Scientists stumped over sea surface temps
A series of big papers on ocean heating has come out in the past few weeks, likely in response to the past year’s record mean ocean surface temperatures.
The oceans play a significant role in stabilising earth’s climate, absorbing heat from global warming, but also feeding that additional energy into stronger storms, that intensify more quickly. Any change in the capacity of oceans to absorb heat has big implications for the rate of global warming. According to a blog on pbsnc.org,
It’s likely the warmer Earth and air temperatures are contributing to the warmer ocean temperatures, but scientists don’t know precisely why sea surface temperatures have climbed so high so fast.
While air temperatures are warmer, water has a greater capacity to absorb and store heat. In fact, the ocean has absorbed about 90% of the heat created by global warming.
“It takes a lot of heat to raise water’s temperature, and I do fear there may be something else going on that is causing a long-term change in sea surface temperatures we hadn’t predicted,” said John Abraham, a professor at the University of St. Thomas, who studies ocean temperatures.
Far from being immune to this, sea temperatures in some areas around Aotearoa New Zealand have been outstripping global average temperatures three-fold, as we reported last month. Data from Stats NZ show coastal water temperatures increasing 0.19-0.34°C per decade. This would have contributed to the strength of Cyclone Gabrielle last year.
2. Storms tipping the carbon scales
A study on the effects of storms in the Southern Ocean, of which there are many, has found that they trigger a release of carbon dioxide.
In addition to absorbing 90% of earth’s heat, oceans also take up 25% of the excess carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere by human activity and nearly half of this carbon uptake is believed to occur over the Southern Ocean. To date, the exchange of carbon between the atmosphere and ocean, particularly in this region, has not been well understood.
The finding that “storms tip the scales in the air-sea exchange of carbon in the Southern Ocean” in a process known as outgassing, is critical to modelling the ocean’s ability to absorb carbon and to predict the effects of climate warming in the future.
3. The ocean is losing its breath
Another study, published in the journal Nature, found that marine heatwaves caused by climate change can trigger low-oxygen extreme events.
Oxygen levels in seawater are a crucial element in sustaining biological survival. It is known that warming oceans are losing oxygen, primarily due to human activity.
According to the study authors “[O]ur findings suggest the ocean is losing its breath under the influence of heatwaves, potentially experiencing more severe damage than previously anticipated.”
Source: The ocean losing its breath under the heatwaves
4. Insights from the far distant past
Another big study this month has found that just 1.5°C of subsurface ocean warming triggered periodic marine ice sheet collapses in Antarctica during the Pliocene era, contributing up to 25m of glacial-interglacial sea level change.
On the basis of CO2 concentrations and global temperatures, the Pliocene is believed to provide a good comparison for current and future sea level and climate and is thus important for modelling the impact of Antactic Ice Sheet (AIS) dynamics on sea level projections. That puts the speed of ocean warming we are currently seeing into perspective.
5. The role of shipping in heating the sea
Understanding why oceans are ‘weirdly hot’ at the moment, the subject of this analysis in NPR, has enormous consequences for what we might expect in the future.
One leading explanation is that the reduction in pollution from ships is playing a role.
This is a core element of James Hansen’s claim, outlined in the paper ‘Global warming in the pipeline’, which suggests that climate scientists have been underestimating climate sensitivity and that an acceleration in heating is occurring.
Another recent study supports his contention that reductions in ship sulphur emissions since new regulations came into force in 2020 have accelerated global warming. Hansen famously warned that “under the present geopolitical approach to GHG emissions, global warming will exceed 1.5°C in the 2020s and 2°C before 2050”. The evidence is continuing to stack up in favour of his view, with ocean heating providing a critical element.
Some climate scientists, according to an article in Bloomberg, are now expecting temperature spikes that set new records to occur more frequently in future, with bigger jumps from one high to the next. Erich Fischer, a climate scientist at ETH Zurich was lead author of a paper in 2021 that predicted “record-shattering extremes, nearly impossible in the absence of warming” that proved almost immediately prophetic.
As new extremes arrive, Fischer predicts previously rare high-end temperatures will become more commonplace. A 1-in-1,000-year heat wave any time between 1951 and 2019 will have shifted to a 1-in-100-year event by around 2020, according to his study. That not-so-unusual heat wave will move again to a 1-in-40-year event in the mid-2020s.
6. The Ember report: air con boom and solar inefficiencies
Demand for air conditioners is contributing to an anticipated surge in energy demand in 2024 according to energy think tank Ember’s annual Global Electricity Review.
Demand for key electrification technologies that replace fossil fuels with electrification, in particular EVs and heat pumps, have contributed 27% of total demand growth in 2023. These contribute to a net decrease in energy demand due to their greater efficiency and also to a decrease in CO2.
The 72 TWh of additional demand from EVs in 2023 was enough to displace over 260,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, had it been burned in ICE vehicles. This is comparable to Australia’s total gasoline consumption in 2021. The 100 TWh of additional demand coming from the new heat pump sales in 2023 would have required around 300 TWh of gas, if burned in a conventional boiler to produce the same amount of heat. This is similar to the total gas consumption of France. As the world continues to electrify, the efficiency gains will mean that less overall energy is needed, even as demand for electricity increases.
If that was all that was happening, we could bank it alongside a reduction in fossil fuel use. However, 28% of electricity demand growth was from air conditioning and data centres. That net new energy demand has contributed to a result in which fossil fuel use continued to grow last year.
Finally, the following chart from Ember shows the massive off-take in solar energy that occurred in 2023, more than half of which was driven by China. Capacity additions were 76% higher in 2023 than in 2022, which was itself a record year. Interestingly, solar generation was below expectations because much of the new installed capacity has occurred in countries with less sunlight.
Those countries with the most to gain from solar capacity are lagging. For some, the reason is ideological and policy-driven, in others the lack of climate financing, technology transfer and other de-risking mechanisms are curtailing potential for development. Africa, for instance, has one-fifth of the global population and has huge solar potential but is attracting just 3% of global energy investment, according to Ember’s review. Meantime China is producing an oversupply of modules that is likely to continue into 2024,
“China’s need to find new export markets is a tremendous opportunity for countries around the world to take advantage of how cost competitive and available solar is compared to other generation sources.” (p.36)
That combination of factors means that the biggest potential efficiency gain from installing solar capacity would be if OECD countries contributed more climate financing toward installations in the developing world. This would also have the benefit of contributing to sustainable development and reducing global inequity, both of which are critical to achieving climate targets. A focus on demand-side policies to reduce energy demand in the OECD would enable a faster, more efficient and equitable transition.
Some headwinds include grid congestion, which is creating major bottlenecks, with a lack of suitable connection points for solar (requiring investment in new transmission capacity), and curtailment is expected to increase in China and California due to insufficient storage. The latter might put at risk the below projection from NGO Land Art Generator, which creates a very visual picture of the potential shape of future electricity generation in California.
Ka kite ano
Bernard and Cathrine

This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe
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The Hoon around the week to August 23
22 aug· The Hoon
The podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers on Thursday night features co-hosts Bernard Hickey and Peter Bale talking about the week’s news with:
* The Kākā’s climate correspondent Cathrine Dyer on the latest science of changing sea temperatures and how most of the solar generation installed is too far north;
* Robert Patman on the latest from Ukraine, Gaza and AUKUS II;
* Dr Jamie Shea from Chatham House on Ukraine’s surprise incursions into Russia, plus AUKUS II; and,
* Major Electricity Users Group (MEUG) director John Harbord on the electricity crisis.
The Hoon’s podcast version above was recorded on Thursday night during a live webinar for over 120 paying subscribers and was produced by Simon Josey.
(This is a sampler for all free subscribers and anyone else who stumbles on it. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, we’re able to spread my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction other public venues. Join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments, and by subscribing in full.)
Ngā mihi nui.
Bernard

This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe
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Weekly Climate Wrap: Will the planet run AMOC?
15 aug· The Hoon
TL;DR: Here’s the top news items of note in climate news for Aotearoa-NZ this week, and a discussion above between Bernard Hickey and The Kākā’s climate correspondent Cathrine Dyer:
* Two new academic studies attempt to pinpoint tipping risks. One modelled tipping risk from four interconnected tipping elements, based on current policy paths that overshoot 1.5˚C, and estimated the tipping risk to be 45% by 2300, even if temperatures are brought back below the target this century. Climate action this decade can have a significant impact on the level of risk, they say.
* Another study, yet to be peer-reviewed or published, modelled just one tipping element, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Shockingly, it found a greater-than-even chance of an AMOC collapse before 2050. The impact of such a collapse would profoundly affect much of the Northern Hemisphere.
* Energy Minister Simeon Brown has offers up his grand plan for importing LNG that solves neither the immediate nor the long-term electricity supply crisis, while the country’s largest gas and energy customers, Methanex and Tiwai Point ramp down their operations (and their associated exports), to offset the short-term pain.
* Propublica has a great scoop this week, gaining access to training videos for The Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025 and its secret 180-day Playbook for getting an army of political appointees in place to fight the deep state and rapidly advance a right-wing agenda should Trump win the US election. The videos include plans to “eradicate climate change references from absolutely everywhere”.
(See more detail and analysis below, and in the video and podcast above. Cathrine Dyer’s journalism on climate and the environment is available free to all paying and non-paying subscribers to The Kākā and the public. It is made possible by subscribers signing up to the paid tier to ensure this sort of public interest journalism is fully available in public to read, listen to and share. Cathrine wrote the wrap. Bernard edited it. Lynn copy-edited and illustrated it.)
1. Some ‘hard to ignore’ research into the looming tipping points
In international science news, research attempting to pin down more specific information on tipping points and their timing is emerging.
An article published in Nature magazine says that if we were to follow current policies in place this century, which overshoot 1.5˚C, it would commit the world to a 45% tipping risk by 2300, even if the temperature is subsequently brought back below 1.5˚C. The tipping risk increases for every 0.1˚C of temporary overshoot.
The study uses an Earth System Model of four interconnected climate tipping elements. The paper emphasises that planetary stability relies on stringent emissions reductions in the current decade.
One particular tipping element (one of the four included in the modelling above) that has been receiving a lot of attention in recent years is the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation or (AMOC), a vital system of currents in the Atlantic Ocean that have profound impacts on weather around the world.
2. When might the AMOC tip?
News about the AMOC has been increasingly concerning and a new, yet to be peer-reviewed study, is the most dramatic and worrying yet, suggesting that a tipping point may be much, much nearer than 2300. The research uses a state-of-the-art model that focuses specifically on estimating the likely timing of a collapse. The results suggest that the AMOC is more likely than not to collapse by 2050.
Like a conveyor belt, the AMOC pulls warm surface water from the southern hemisphere and the tropics and distributes it in the cold North Atlantic. The colder, saltier water then sinks and flows south. The mechanism keeps parts of the Southern Hemisphere from overheating and parts of the Northern Hemisphere from getting unbearably cold, while distributing nutrients that sustain life in marine ecosystems.
The impacts of an AMOC collapse would leave parts of the world unrecognizable.
In the decades after a collapse, Arctic ice would start creeping south, and after 100 years, would extend all the way down to the southern coast of England. Europe’s average temperature would plunge, as would North America’s – including parts of the US. The Amazon rainforest would see a complete reversal in its seasons; the current dry season would become the rainy months, and vice versa.
An AMOC collapse “is a really big danger that we should do everything we can to avoid,” said Stefan Rahmstorf, a physical oceanographer at Potsdam University in Germany who was not involved in the latest research.
The Southern Hemisphere would become warmer than currently predicted in the case of an AMOC collapse, as less heat would be transported northward.
Rahmstorf said that five or so years ago he would have agreed that an AMOC collapse this century was unlikely, though even a 10% risk is still unacceptably high “for a catastrophic impact of such magnitude.”
“There’s now five papers, basically, that suggested it could well happen in this century, or even before the middle of the century,” Rahmstof said. “My overall assessment is now that the risk of us passing the tipping point in this century is probably even greater than 50%.”
The pre-print (yet to be peer-reviewed and published) of the paper can be read in full here.
Specifically, it estimates the probability of an AMOC collapse before 2050 at 59 ± 17%. If the paper makes it through peer-review largely intact, it should cause a serious rethink of our global approach to reducing emissions as the scale of risk is almost unimaginable.
3. Markets can’t solve it, and the Govt won’t - but it WILL import more gas
Having cancelled the previous Government’s oil and gas exploration ban, Energy Minister Simeon Brown now wants to start importing LNG. That won’t solve the immediate crisis, of course. Or the long-term one, for that matter.
Brown has been quick to blame the previous government's ban on new oil and gas exploration for a shortage in gas to get us through the entirely predictable current dry year issue. But a great explainer in The Conversation by a group of Canterbury University academics points out that a record amount was spent on drilling new wells between 2020 and 2024. It just didn’t produce much new gas and now energy companies think there is less there than they previously thought.
This, combined with policies that change with each new government, means that energy companies will be slow to respond to the new policy regime while both gas and electricity markets lack the ‘confidence to move’. Another way to put it is that markets can’t solve the problem and Governments won’t. What a pickle.
According to The Conversation article, every short-term solution involves a trade-off that impacts GDP (that shouldn’t be a surprise given how tightly correlated energy and GDP are). And that is what has eventuated with both Methanex (the country’s largest domestic user of indigenous gas) and Tiwai Point (the country’s largest renewable energy customer), both significant exporters, agreeing to ramp down their operations temporarily.
The option to strategically toggle production up and down to off-set variable energy availability is one that has been under-explored until now. The situation with Tiwai Point and Methanex has evolved almost organically, but should we put a tail on it and call it a cunning plan? Where are the feasibility plans for strategically over-building renewable energy alongside industries that can export embedded or stored energy in various forms? It’s not a new idea, but thus far lacks sufficient strategic governance to bring it about in a more intentional form.
Backing into Bernard’s call to exploit China’s cheap battery and solar production, Mike Casey this week made a case for a mini boom in distributed solar. Again, this requires strategic government action to ‘pull levers it’s just not pulling’. A more distributed energy grid would have the added advantage of building more resilience into a system that is facing increasingly strong and more frequent weather events. AND, in what would seem like something akin to magic at this point, it would tip the country into forward motion.
4. Project 2025’s anti-science plans
Shifting to news abroad – Propublica has a great scoop this week on the secret/not so secret Project 2025’s plan to train an army of political appointees who could ‘fight the deep state’ and accelerate a right-wing policy agenda under a future Trump presidency.
There have been increasing calls from Democrats for The Heritage Foundation to release the “undisclosed fourth pillar of the project called the ‘180-Day Playbook’”, which has so far remained secret. Propublica has gotten hold of a set of training videos for it, including one on climate change that features some extremely retro thinking:
In one video, Bethany Kozma, a conservative activist and former deputy chief of staff at the U.S. Agency for International Development in the Trump administration, downplays the seriousness of climate change and says the movement to combat it is really part of a ploy to “control people.”
“If the American people elect a conservative president, his administration will have to eradicate climate change references from absolutely everywhere,” Kozma says.
Despite Trump’s claim to have no connection to the project, Propublica found that 29 of the 36 speakers featured in the videos have worked for him in some capacity, in his 2026-27 transition team, his administration or his 2024 re-election campaign.
The Project’s known threats to science were outlined in a Scientific American article in July, that claimed the Project sought to “sabotage science-based policies that address climate change, the environment, abortion, health care access, technology and education.
“...also mapped out in detail, is a plan to exert more presidential control over traditionally nonpartisan governmental workers—those Trump might describe as members of the “deep state,” or regulatory bureaucracy. For example, Project 2025 claims that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and other scientific institutions are “vulnerable to obstructionism” unless appointees at these agencies are “wholly in sync” with presidential policy. To that end, it would reclassify tens of thousands of civil service jobs as political positions that answer to the president.
“The independence of science is being attacked across the board in this document,” says Rachel Cleetus, policy director of the Climate and Energy program at the nonpartisan Union of Concerned Scientists.
“The importance of this science is that’s how we can ensure people’s health and the environment are being safeguarded.”
5. So what are health implications of climate change?
Another academic pre-print (yet to be peer-reviewed and published) makes one of the first systematic attempts to estimate the effects of climate change on human morbidity and mortality. The researchers calculate directly-attributable mortality between 2016 and 2023 as high as 271,000, although this figure encompasses only a small fraction of the presumed global burden given the lack of studies that address infectious and non-communicable diseases, or large-scale events outside of Europe or the US.
They suggest that the field of health impact attribution is “poised to explode in the next decade, putting unprecedented pressure on policymakers to take action for human health”. MedRxiv
6. The best (and worst) of the rest of the climate news
Among the many other interesting stories this week:
* A report has found that the UK’s Drax biomass power plant was the country’s largest carbon emitter in 2023, emitting more than the country’s largest remaining coal plant, despite receiving more than £7 billion in public funding subsidies available under the EU and UK Emissions Trading Schemes. The energy from biomass plants is considered renewable and their emissions don’t have to be reported as it is assumed that forest regrowth offsets the carbon dioxide produced. The plant’s own accounting relies on a significant contribution from Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS), although the CCS part is yet to be built. All of the IPCC’s Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) that keep the world below 1.5˚C use BECCS as a negative emissions technology to reduce CO2 in the atmosphere and bring temperatures back down after overshooting the 1.5˚C target. Contention remains over the feasibility and scalability of those plans. Source: The Guardian
* Canada’s 2023 wildfires produced more CO2 emissions that would normally be expected over the course of a decade and were made three times more likely by climate change. Source: The Guardian
* More marine heatwaves, responsible for a damaging cascade of impacts across critical oceans species, are predicted for Aotearoa this summer. The Herald
* An opinion piece by Dan Hikuroa’s for The Herald argues eloquently for a shift in paradigms away from a mechanistic view of the world toward a kaitiakitanga paradigm that focused on being a good ancestor. He acted as an advisor for the producers of the play Scenes from the Climate Era, on at Tamaki Makaurau’s Q Theatre until 24 August. I’ve heard its excellent! The Herald
Ka kite ano
Bernard and Cathrine

This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe
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