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As part of Fieldays, Federated Farmers have done the most interesting survey.
It is a snapshot, like them all. But the numbers for one lot are so stark, alarm bells should be ringing.
So, who would a farmer vote for? You would say National and you would be right.
Broadly the farming community is conservative, always has been.
That, partly, is because they are their own masters, they are hard workers, they are self-reliant, they are at the cutting edge of the economy, and they know how life works.
So 54% said they'd vote for National and 19% said ACT.
Here is where it gets interesting and/or alarming.
8% said they'd vote for NZ First. They're the only party with farmers at about the same level as they are nationally.
Labour is on 3%. How bad is that? Even with a margin of error, even with a massive margin of error, Labour should be shocked at that figure.
Every party has their sweet spot, some parties more overtly so, e.g. the Greens and environmentalists, or communists.
ACT have some upmarket urban liberals. New Zealand First having a provincial number higher than the city wouldn’t surprise me
But National and Labour, as major parties should be, by their very nature are broad-based. After all, it is Labour and National, and Labour and National alone, that will lead any given Government on any given day.
You have to at least have a half-decent level of support even in your weakest areas.
Farming is particularly important, given we are a farming nation, the foreign receipts we get from the land and the value of our free trade deals.
To have a major party so out of touch with such a large sector strikes me as being astonishing, if not embarrassing, if not unheard of.
My suspicion is the current version of Labour is particularly unpalatable, and this is going to be their major issue next year.
For all voters the damage done to the country is still fresh in most of our minds, but no more so than farmers. The climate obsession, special land area designation, Three Waters with Māori overreach, no gas, and more paperwork.
Farmers hated it. A lot of us hated it.
But in general polls Labour are competitive. On the land they are pariahs.
At 3% that is a massive hill for Hipkins and co to climb between now and October next year.
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Jimmy Carr is well known for a couple of things, his controversial comedy and distinctive laugh chief among them.
And he’s bringing both to Kiwi audiences early next year, travelling right across the country, stopping in 13 different cities.
He’s got a prolific career in standup, as well as being a household name in UK television, not only hosting an array of panel shows, but a regular guest on many of the rest.
Carr has a busy schedule, and he told Mike Hosking that he works as much as he possibly can, as his work is such a joyful thing.
“If I have a night off, what am I doing? I’m sitting at home having my tea,” he said.
“If I come out and do a show, it’s such a joyful thing."
“I also think I do have a propensity to get cancelled once in a while,” Carr confessed, the comedian having seen his fair share of controversies.
“So you never know when your last one’s going to be.”
When it comes to cancel culture, Carr is a big advocate for freedom of speech.
“I’m not for everyone, and edgy jokes, there’s you know, limits of it, sometimes it’s not for everyone,” he told Hosking.
“But the whole cancel culture thing, you go, well, as long as you don’t get cancelled by your own audience, I think you’re golden.”
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On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Thursday 12th of June, it's good news Thursday as we see good news for wool, good news for our food and fibre exports, and good news for our elective surgery waitlist.
You won't believe how many people are leaving Auckland and the North Island to head to Christchurch and the South Island.
Award-winning comedian Jimmy Carr is heading this way, but before that he's on to talk cancel culture, his love of New Zealand, and his life of the tour.
Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.
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Christchurch is acting as a magnet for thousands of Kiwis making the move down South.
The latest Stats NZ census data shows 85,000 people moved to the South Island between 2018 and 2023.
Around half of those have gone to the Canterbury region.
ChristchurchNZ Chief Executive Ali Adams told Mike Hosking the Garden City's versatility is being recognized.
She says people are realizing you can have a brilliant career and a great life.
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Health New Zealand is outsourcing more elective operations to private facilities to ease strain on the system.
The agency aims to deliver more than 10,500 additional elective procedures by the end of June, by partnering with private hospitals to expand surgical capacity.
The target is within reach with more than 8,600 procedures complete since March.
Christchurch colorectal and general surgeon Chris Wakeman told Mike Hosking that although he gets paid less to do public work, this is the future of healthcare.
He says it's so much more efficient and you can do a lot more work.
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Todd McClay says surging value and supply is behind the rise in food and fibre export revenue.
The latest forecasts project export earnings of $59.9 billion for the year ending later this month.
It's now on track to reach $65.7 billion by 2029.
Agriculture and Forestry Minister Todd McClay told Mike Hosking we're seeing sectors like Horticulture raise exports by 20%.
He says for the first time ever we saw Zespri sell $5 billion worth of kiwifruit around the world.
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Italy’s squeezed middle class could be getting a breather.
Tax cuts are at the top of Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s agenda, as she says the middle class is the backbone of the Italian production system.
She says they want to make the system fairer.
Italy Correspondent Jo McKenna told Mike Hosking she’s reduced the tax rate from around 26% to 24% so far.
She says they’re likely going to need to do a lot more, because many are still struggling financially.
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The Finance Minister says a move to require wool carpets in state housing makes financial sense.
Nicola Willis has announced a change to Kainga Ora's supplier agreement that will see it re-open its previously nylon-only carpet tender process.
From the start of next month, all public entities will also be required to use woollen fibres where practical and appropriate.
Willis told Mike Hosking officials have told her it makes sense for Kainga Ora to make this change.
She says it's cost-neutral, and it performs well across a number of other dimensions.
Nicola Willis says the Reserve Bank should never be exempt from cost-cutting across the public sector.
Newly released documents show Adrian Orr's abrupt resignation as Governor came after he was denied the Budget allocation he was seeking.
The Finance Minister says the central bank still has the funding it requires to do its statutory duties.
She told Hosking the Reserve Bank can't operate as a "gilded palace" – it needs to be fiscally responsible, like all other government departments.
Willis says any idea that the Reserve Bank doesn't need to abide by the same funding constraints as other Government agencies is wrong.
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Unrest is spreading in the US over immigrant deportations.
Donald Trump is sending hundreds of US Marines and has ordered 2000 more National Guard troops to go to LA's immigration protests.
California Governor Gavin Newsom's called the US President's orders deranged and has filed a lawsuit.
US Correspondent Richard Arnold told Mike Hosking of the 2000 National Guard troops deployed, only 315 were mission assigned, the other 1700 having no particular responsibility.
He says that 100 arrests have been made, but no charges have been laid.
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So, the great rates upset has begun to unfold.
Auckland this week got its long-awaited council valuations.
Why people get excited about them, I have no idea.
It's a rough guesstimate by a council. It takes into account the broadest of criteria, but people seem to live and die by them.
The upset of course has come from the fact that the value of a lot of properties has dropped, while the rates bill is going up. So we get the cost-plus-accounting scandal that is council economic policy exposed.
This is happening all over the country and it's a specific and broad-based problem. It's broad-based because it's inflationary and it's specific because depending on where you are depends on how bad the scandal is.
Auckland properties are down 9% while rates are up over 7%.
In Wellington values are down 24% and rates are up 16%.
Nelson values are down 9% and rates are up 6%, so this whole idea that rates are linked to value is of course complete crap and always has been.
In short, councils are inept and will spend forever, will waste your money forever, will plead poverty forever and will always find something that is critical and needs doing now.
For example, Christchurch got shafted last week by Chris Bishop, when the council rejected the Government's intensification plan.
The council didn’t like it, spent three years and millions of dollars to go back and forward and to achieve what? Nothing. That's council for you.
As Auckland mayor Wayne Brown said, "it is what it is". He's right because he knows a couple of home truths; no one is turning up for local body elections, so very few people will be held to account, and he also knows a lot of people will moan but ultimately do nothing about it.
If ever there was a reason to get exercised over the way we are being played, this is it.
Your asset has dropped but the bill is up. The bill, in theory, is based on the asset value. Nowhere else in life is this scam played and gotten away with, apart from local body politics.
We have too many councils, too much representation, too many boards, too much incompetence, and every year the bill for it rises.
Democracy only works if you take part.
What better reason can there be this year than to get your voting paper, look at the value of your property, look at your rate rise, put a name to the con and vote them out.
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A new rideshare option is skidding into the New Zealand market.
Bolt, hailing from Europe, is promising better deals for both drivers and customers, while challenging the duopoly that currently dominates.
They’re first launching in Auckland, aiming to bring a breath of fresh air to the market.
General Manager Adam Muirson told Mike Hosking that for the last couple of years, the competition has been stagnant at best, leading to increasing prices, limited choice, and decreasing service levels.
He says that there was a growing sense of frustration among drivers at that lack of competition, and the sheer number of applications they’ve received leading up to the launch has reinforced that.
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It’s unlikely New Zealand will be in for a repeat of last year’s power shortage.
Our winter stocks are in better shape thanks to improved lake levels, extra gas supplies, and an enlarged coal stockpile has added security to the system.
And although customers are still battling high energy prices, a major government review is expected in the coming weeks.
Meridian CEO Mike Roan told Mike Hosking that they’re deep into investing in the sector so they can overcome the challenge represented by lost gas supplies.
He says they’re currently stabilising the impact, and in the long term, they’re in good shape.
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On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Wednesday 11th of June, we've got a new mental health report that shows the $1.9 billion spent has seemingly been wasted, and we talk all things energy with Meridian.
Fieldays begins today and is sure to be successful, considering how well the rural sector has been doing of late.
Ginny Andersen and Mark Mitchell talk the new stalking laws, the regulatory standards bill, and solar power on Politics Wednesday.
Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.
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The select committee process has proven useful in substantially strengthening anti-stalking laws.
Originally proposals on making it an offence had a maximum penalty of five years in prison, capturing three specified acts within one-year.
But it'll now be triggered after two acts within two years.
Labour's Police spokesperson Ginny Anderson told Mike Hosking it's an example of why the process is an important part of our democracy.
She says it's been great to work collaboratively, to listen to submissions, to understand what Police can do and to make the changes to strengthen the law.
Police Minister Mark Mitchell told Hosking that police take these things extremely seriously, and they now have the tools to be able to give a meaningful response.
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Fieldays kicks off at Mystery Creek today.
The rural sector’s somewhat bullish from its record profits across dairy and red meat, and pundits are expecting farmers to be “speaking with their wallets”.
Big crowds are expected, with many looking to take advantage of the new tax rebate on the big ticket items.
CEO of National Fieldays Richard Lindroos told Mike Hosking it’s the largest agribusiness event in the southern hemisphere, with over 100,000 going through the gates over the four days.
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Experts say specialist addiction and mental health services need rapid improvement.
New research from the Mental Health and Wellbeing Commission has found three New Zealanders die every week due to accidental and preventable drug overdose, with fatalities up 88% from 2016 to 2023.
At the same time, despite growing demands, fewer people are seeking specialist help.
Commission CEO Karen Orsborn told Mike Hosking the biggest concern is the falling access to mental health and addiction services.
She says they’re seeing high vacancy rates, particularly for specialist staff and psychiatrists, and that has a big impact on the system.
Orsborn says that’s where they want to see some faster action.
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New Zealand's $47.2 billion franchise sector is being celebrated.
Today marks the first World Franchise Day.
The model first took shape in New Zealand in the 1970s – with now almost 550 franchised brands including in accommodation, hospitality, education, childcare and retail.
Franchise Association Chair Brad Jones told Mike Hosking they’ve had some great growth in the sector over the last few years.
He says they’re 11% of New Zealand’s GDP, and if motor vehicle sales and retail fuel are included, that brings them to over $73 billion – 17% of GDP.
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Assurance stronger anti-stalking laws are the right move to protect victims.
Originally proposals on making it an offence had a maximum penalty of five years in prison, capturing three specified acts within one-year.
But following the Select Committee process it'll now be triggered after two acts within two years.
Chief Victims' Adviser to the Government Ruth Money told Mike Hosking the change allows greater prevention and targets the pattern stalking follows.
She says it's not about charging the moping boyfriend, who's sent a non-harmful text and is feeling a bit sad.
Money says it’s important earlier intervention can be taken, and police need the powers because stalking behaviour can escalate into violence and death.
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We got the press release recently from the Restaurant Association where they said there were flat sales, cost pressures and regional divergence was the theme.
I have changed my mind a bit on hospitality.
More broadly, I wonder whether there are too many vested interests in this country who get in the way of real progress.
The hospitality story has been a long, arduous and well told one.
We hear hospitality is shot, hospitality is a disaster, no one makes money and no one wants to work in hospitality.
Yet my increasing observation is that is not true.
If you take a very large industry as a whole and average everything out, you might well be able to find some dour times.
But what is increasingly obvious, not just from personal experience but a lot of anecdotal expert opinions as well, is a lot of hospitality is not only fine, it's actually going quite well.
The thing about hospitality is it is malleable. You are not a log exporter reliant on a single market to either buy, or not buy, your tree.
In hospitality you can vary what it is you are offering and what I see is a lot of people doing really good things and, as a result, they are doing very nicely thank you.
It took us over a week to get the last table for lunch the other day at a local that, in our experience, has changed hands and boosted their product and offering and as a result has gone from a quiet, regional operator to a booming tourism business rushed off its feet.
Same place, same name, new product - whole different result.
The other thing about hospitality is it doesn’t require any skill to enter. Anyone can buy a café, and a lot do, and I have seen them, often immigrants, as it's an easy entry point. They take over a going concern and wreck it, change a menu, employ the family, kill the service and they're dead in a week.
We are over supplied of course. So in your area where you have a choice of a dozen places, only two have to be good before they boom and the others wilt.
So the Restaurant Association telling us things aren't flash is not the real story.
Bits aren't flash, but then if you are not up to much in the first place - they never will be.
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The problem with committing to things that may well come back to haunt you, is down the track, at some point, the mistake starts to hit you in the face a bit and some hard decisions are required.
My sense of it is we have become too reliant on pine trees to meet the Paris climate target.
The sheep farmers have worked that out as the protests around land conversion have once again been reignited, with posters put up by the Meat and Wool folk with the line: "I am not the problem".
Since 1982 we have gone from 70 million sheep to 25 million.
In the last seven years a quarter of a million hectares has been swapped from sheep to trees.
This of course was always going to happen. What's the easiest way to meet a target on carbon? Trees.
Cutting and slashing, whether its farm production or the economy, in general was never going to be palatable. So trees were easy.
But you might have noticed a couple of major things have happened;
1) Paris looks increasingly shaky in terms of people meeting targets, or indeed people even being interested in meeting targets.
2) Stuff grown on the land with legs is fetching very good money all over the world and as far as us earning a living goes, we have never made more from farming.
Carbon offsetting, which is what planting trees is called, has restrictions in other countries. But I bet you anything you want that other countries aren't as reliant on sheep and cows as we are.
We used to have tourism back us up. But last week's numbers tell the sad story - dairy is worth $20 billion, while tourism is at $12 billion. Even offal comes in at $9 billion.
Tourism used to vie for first place, hence the Government threw another $13 million at it yesterday to try and attract another 70,000 or so new visitors.
Trees also kill communities. Farming is life. A forest isn't.
As laudable as Paris was all those years ago, if we had thought about it, if we had been less evangelical, we might have stopped to think just what it was we were asking of a small economy.
And the simple truth is we were asking so much, a quick shortcut like trees was always going to be adopted with alacrity.
Saving the planet, as people get tossed off the land, is not an equation we should be proud of. As the protest poster with the photo of the sheep says, I am not the problem. And it's right.
The zealots are.
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