Afleveringen
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Studies about democracies in the last eight years or so have focused on democratic recession or backsliding. Yet, there are democracies that do not regress but instead stagnate. We discuss an academic article that suggest that some democracies hit their ceilings and do not progress further because of the legacy of nationalist polarization that persist.
Reference:
Aram Hur and Andrew Yeo. 2024. Democratic Ceilings: The Long Shadow of Nationalist Polarization in East Asia. Comparative Political Studies 57(4): 584-612.
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Zijn er afleveringen die ontbreken?
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Syria's Assad regime suddenly collapse after 50 years of brutal rule. What's next? European politics is volatile these days. French president Macron has appointed a fifth prime minister to head a fragmented National Assembly. German chancellor Scholz's government suffered no-confidence vote. Many other problem spots within Europe. So what's happening?
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South Korean President Yoon declared martial law and then had to rescind it once the National Assembly voted it down. Impeachment motion failed to pass the National Assembly leading to continued demonstrations in the country calling the president to resign. At the moment, a political stalemate seems likely to linger as the president refuses to step down.
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In this episode, our special guest Prof Youngho Cho of Sogang University in Seoul, Republic of Korea, discusses his research on why South Korea's presidential system is plague by a tit-for-tat political witch hunt.
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This episode is a chat from what we have learned in our study tour of Taiwan.
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We chat about the plausible foreign policy implications of the results of the 2024 US elections.
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The US election has finally occurred and the Republicans seem like the big winner -- winning the presidency, the Senate, and in line to win the House of Representatives.
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We discuss Prof Yuen Yuen Ang's article on the clash of the US and China as that of two gilded ages rather than clash of civilizations. We then talk about the polls just a few days before the US presidential election and how the election is still too close to call.
Recommended reading list:
https://www.noemamag.com/the-clash-of-two-gilded-ages/
Luebbert, Gregory M, Liberalism, Fascism, or Social Democracy: Social Classes and the Political Origins of Regimes in Interwar Europe (New York, NY, 1991; online edn, Oxford Academic, 31 Oct. 2023), https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780195066104.001.0001, accessed 3 Nov. 2024.
Rogowski, Ronald. 1999. Commerce and Coalitions. https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.4324/9780203518588-26/commerce-coalitions-trade-affects-domestic-political-alignments-ronald-rogowski
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In this episode we discuss reports that North Korean soldiers are fighting in Ukraine. We then talk about an essay published by the Royal United Services Institute about the possible of betrayal of Ukraine and why this betrayal is likely to happen. We discuss the Foreign Affairs article about the problem of depopulation that the world is facing today and what this means. Lastly, the snap election in Japan backfired for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party as it lost its parliamentary majority.
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We chat about Nick's research presentation at the Southeast Asia Research Initiative seminar on the implications of great power rivalry on Southeast Asia and then examine whether there is validity in the concern that the United States is losing its position of influence in Southeast Asia to China as other global issues drags America's attention to the region.
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We examine the implications of the conflict in the Mideast to our region and discuss a recent essay in Foreign Affairs that calls for a change of approach to US Mideast strategy. The Khalistan movement has supporters in NZ that are holding a referendum on Sikh independence. Then the sad news of the sinking of the RNZN survey ship in Samoa while doing a survey of the seabed.
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We chat about two research papers we conducted on Pacific maritime space. One research is about Fiji and Solomon Islands and how these two countries exercise their agency and the second paper is on fisheries and maritime security issues. We then talk about our own impressions of the US presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Lastly, we discuss a BBC article on the battleground states in this November's US presidential election. Does issue saliency affected by the politics within these battleground states?
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Indonesian activity in the South China Sea is increasing as the country builds its own military bases in disputed waters while ferreting out Chinese fishing vessels that intrude into their EEZ. Is this another conflict that adds to an already tense theatre? Chinese industrial overcapacity has seen protectionist actions by members of the Global South, what does this mean for Chinese ambitions as a leader of this group and its own domestic concerns? Pope Francis was in Southeast Asia, praising the diversity and social harmony in the region, what lessons can the rest of the world take from the experiences of the Southeast Asian nations in building diverse societies?
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Two articles published in prominent foreign policy magazines from well-known observers of international affairs of the Asia-Pacific. Ryan Haas in his article suggested that US planning policies on the basis of peaked China is not a good idea. Second article is a letter from Singapore to the next US president urging the US to stopped being so obsessed with being number 1.
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Japan PM Kishida steps down and opens up new leadership contest within the LDP. Is it 'plus ca change' in the case of Japanese politics? Clan politics seem to be the name of the game in two Southeast Asian countries -- Thailand and Indonesia. Thailand's new PM is the formerly exiled Thaksin Shinawatra's daughter and the Shinawatra family seem to be on the mend with other significant actors in Thailand. Indonesia's outgoing president Jokowi was supposed to be the outsider but now seems to be ensuring that his family/clan will be signficant insiders in Indonesian politics. Lastly, NZ PM Chris Luxon gave an important foreign policy speech in Sydney. So now that Luxon talks the talk, the question remains is can he also walk the walk considering the difficult economic situation NZ finds itself in today.
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The US election in November is creating lots of anxieties globally. Despite the excitement with the Kamala Harris candidacy, questions remain about what is likely to happen the day after the first Tuesday of November. What does a Harris presidency mean Asia-Pacific? What does a second Trump administration mean for international relations of Asia-Pacific?
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Theories of international relations have been constructed from experiences of continental Europe. Yet, in the Asia-Pacific it seems like a uneasy fit because of the complex geography of the region. In this episode, Dr Kelly Grieco of the Stimson Center in Washington DC explains to us her research on geography and its implications to coalition-building in the Asia-Pacific region.
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