Afleveringen
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The 2025 German Federal election results are out: governing SPD is third, CDU/CSU is tops, the far right AfD came in a strong second. What is the new picture of vote distribution across Germany? What does it mean for coalition and future governance? What does it mean for its foreign policy? Ukraine's president Zelensky went to the Oval Office expecting to discuss and then sign the US-Ukraine mineral deal, instead he got a 'shakedown' by US President Trump and VP Vance all caught on live TV. He was asked to leave the White House not even able to enjoy a meal. What happened? What are the implications and fall out of this very undiplomatic live TV show straight from the White House?
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US and Russia met in Saudi Arabia to discuss ground rules for negotiations to end the Ukraine war although no Ukrainians and Europeans attended. What does it mean? What are the implications? PLA Navy task force is spotted in international waters near Australia and NZ and disrupted commercial air traffic by having live fire exercises. Why? What is the point of Chinese navy presence? And a quick update on the continuing saga of the Cook Island and China agreement.
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Zijn er afleveringen die ontbreken?
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Is this now an era of stick power in international relations? An era of my way or the highway? US VP Vance spoke at the Munich Security Conference and lectured (or read the riot act) his European audience. NZ and Cook Islands are having an uncomfortable moment in their relationship when Cook Islands signed an agreement with China without prior alert to NZ.
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US president Donald Trump has been busy since his inauguration one week ago. We chat about his inauguration speech and other things in President Trump's eventful week one on the first week of his 2nd term as US president.
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Biden bows out of politics with his farewell address. Trump claims he has a hand in the Gaza ceasefire. India seems to be acknowledging an assassination plot on a US citizen. Landmines was stored wrongly in IKEA and a Polish general responsible for logistics was fired. After years of National Geographic's Where in the World is Carmen Sandiego program, the defense secretary nominee cannot identify a member of ASEAN.
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Trump threatens to take Greenland from Denmark and does not rule out the use of force. Indonesia has joined BRICS as a full member.
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Studies about democracies in the last eight years or so have focused on democratic recession or backsliding. Yet, there are democracies that do not regress but instead stagnate. We discuss an academic article that suggest that some democracies hit their ceilings and do not progress further because of the legacy of nationalist polarization that persist.
Reference:
Aram Hur and Andrew Yeo. 2024. Democratic Ceilings: The Long Shadow of Nationalist Polarization in East Asia. Comparative Political Studies 57(4): 584-612.
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Syria's Assad regime suddenly collapse after 50 years of brutal rule. What's next? European politics is volatile these days. French president Macron has appointed a fifth prime minister to head a fragmented National Assembly. German chancellor Scholz's government suffered no-confidence vote. Many other problem spots within Europe. So what's happening?
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South Korean President Yoon declared martial law and then had to rescind it once the National Assembly voted it down. Impeachment motion failed to pass the National Assembly leading to continued demonstrations in the country calling the president to resign. At the moment, a political stalemate seems likely to linger as the president refuses to step down.
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In this episode, our special guest Prof Youngho Cho of Sogang University in Seoul, Republic of Korea, discusses his research on why South Korea's presidential system is plague by a tit-for-tat political witch hunt.
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This episode is a chat from what we have learned in our study tour of Taiwan.
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We chat about the plausible foreign policy implications of the results of the 2024 US elections.
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The US election has finally occurred and the Republicans seem like the big winner -- winning the presidency, the Senate, and in line to win the House of Representatives.
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We discuss Prof Yuen Yuen Ang's article on the clash of the US and China as that of two gilded ages rather than clash of civilizations. We then talk about the polls just a few days before the US presidential election and how the election is still too close to call.
Recommended reading list:
https://www.noemamag.com/the-clash-of-two-gilded-ages/
Luebbert, Gregory M, Liberalism, Fascism, or Social Democracy: Social Classes and the Political Origins of Regimes in Interwar Europe (New York, NY, 1991; online edn, Oxford Academic, 31 Oct. 2023), https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780195066104.001.0001, accessed 3 Nov. 2024.
Rogowski, Ronald. 1999. Commerce and Coalitions. https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.4324/9780203518588-26/commerce-coalitions-trade-affects-domestic-political-alignments-ronald-rogowski
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In this episode we discuss reports that North Korean soldiers are fighting in Ukraine. We then talk about an essay published by the Royal United Services Institute about the possible of betrayal of Ukraine and why this betrayal is likely to happen. We discuss the Foreign Affairs article about the problem of depopulation that the world is facing today and what this means. Lastly, the snap election in Japan backfired for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party as it lost its parliamentary majority.
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We chat about Nick's research presentation at the Southeast Asia Research Initiative seminar on the implications of great power rivalry on Southeast Asia and then examine whether there is validity in the concern that the United States is losing its position of influence in Southeast Asia to China as other global issues drags America's attention to the region.
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