Afleveringen
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Ray and Jim welcome AEI senior fellow Zack Cooper to the podcast to discuss China's increasingly aggressive behavior, and what the U.S. and its allies need to do in response. They focus on the question of how deterrence strategies need to evolve and adapt to the threats, whether they be nuclear, conventional military, or across the spectrum of malign gray-zone activities. They discuss the specific need to deter a military move against Taiwan.
The discussion turns to the topic of extended nuclear deterrence, and whether a perceived U.S. inability or unwillingness to back up its security guarantees might lead its allies in the region to pursue their own nuclear weapons programs and lead to a breakdown of the non-proliferation regime.
Zack also covers the recent U.S. policy of “integrated deterrence” and whether it can be effective, as well as recent discussion about an “Asian NATO” and whether it has a future.
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Ray and Jim explore the implications of a Trump 2.0 administration for the Philippines with prominent Filipino columnist, podcaster and author of the 2020 book, The Indo-Pacific: Trump, China, and the New Struggle for Global Mastery. Richard Heydarian discusses the historical context of US-Philippines relations, the fluidity of ASEAN perspectives on China, and the importance of strategic autonomy for Southeast Asian nations.
The dialogue compares the policies of U.S. administrations through recent decades, emphasizing the need for clarity and continuity in interpreting the 1951 US-Philippine Mutual Defense Treaty and other security cooperation arrangements.
The discussion drills down on the potential impact of Trump-imposed tariffs on Philippine economic interests, before turning to the broader geopolitical and economic landscape across Southeast Asia.
Richard also gives his opinions on the effectiveness of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the potential for minilateralism to overcome its limitations.
The hosts ask Richard to give advice about how Philippine President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Jr. can maximize his impact with President Trump, as well as his advice on what makes a successful podcast.
Finally, Ray tells Jim about his recent experience at the Manila Dialogue on the South China Sea, where he created a buzz by describing China’s activities in the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone as akin to a “maritime occupation” by a “hostile imperial power”.
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Ray and Jim talk to author and geopolitical analyst James Crabtree about India’s policy of strategic ambiguity, its evolving but complicated relationship to the other “Quad” countries (the U.S., Australia and Japan), and its enigmatic relations with Russia and China.
They also review India's ongoing military modernization efforts, as well as the challenges of doing business in India with its complex web of protectionism, regulations and infrastructure issues.
Crabtree unpacks the rhetoric of India’s “Act East” policy of prioritizing Southeast Asia, as opposed to its evident interest in developing relations with wealthier Western economies. He also explains the implications of its inclusion in the “BRICS” grouping with Brazil, Russia, China and South Africa, together with a growing number of emerging Global South partners.
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Jim and Ray welcome former Ambassador to Singapore Frank Lavin--now the Founder and CEO of Export Now, a firm that helps companies do business in China. Frank explains why he believes economic decoupling from China is unwise, and why he believes that China's 2001 accession to the World Trade Organization was not a mistake but instead forced Beijing to make important reforms that benefited U.S. businesses.
Our guest emphasizes the importance of balancing geopolitical considerations with business decisions, and advocates for a positive U.S. trade policy of collaboration with like-minded nations rather than over-focusing on adversarial relationships with countries like China.
The discussion also rolls around to the evolution of U.S. trade policy, the potential implications of increased tariffs under Donald Trump, and the challenges posed by China's rise. It explores the history of trade agreements, the current political climate surrounding free trade, and the impact of China's economic strategies on global markets.
Frank emphasizes the importance of openness and collaboration in trade, while also addressing the need for defensive measures against unfair practices. He concludes with a call for proactive leadership in U.S. trade relations and the potential for future agreements.
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Ray and Jim welcome Chinese espionage expert Matt Brazil to discuss the unprecedented scale of Chinese intelligence operations, emphasizing the role of the Ministry of State Security (MSS). He highlights the implications of China's sophisticated program of both domestic and transnational spying and repression of dissent; the involvement of some Chinese academics and students in espionage activities; and the growing threat of cyber hacking as a tool for state-sponsored intelligence.
Matt also explains how the United Front Work Department conducts foreign influence operations, and offers insights into how organizations can mitigate risks when hiring individuals from China.
The conversation concludes with a discussion on why China's wide-ranging program targets local government officials and the broader implications of these actions.
Ray and Jim then discuss how China's whole-of-civilization approach to espionage can increase the scrutiny--including discrimination, profiling and racism--that ordinary ethnic Chinese academics, students and businesspeople face in western countries.
Finally, Ray relates an amusing occasion on which he himself was called a "cyber hacker" while serving in southeast Asia.
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Ray and Jim welcome Stanford University fellow and author Oriana Skylar Mastro to discuss her recent book, "Upstart: How China Became a Great Power".
Oriana emphasizes that outsiders often misunderstand the sources of China's strength. She says that while Beijing sometimes emulates Western strategies, it also frequently exploits their weaknesses--for example, engaging strongly with certain developing countries that the U.S. largely ignores.
She further asserts that China engages in entrepreneurial new strategies, such as training developing countries' police forces or building a vast maritime militia force. Many of these approaches are made possible by China's authoritarian political system in ways that democracies cannot easily emulate and probably shouldn't try, though they need to find other ways to contest them using their own strengths.
Oriana examines the diplomatic and military options regarding China's growing threat to Taiwan and the South China Sea, emphasizing the need for less bluster but more strength--Theodore Roosevelt's "speak softly and carry a big stick" approach. Regarding the South China Sea, she discusses her recent New York Times article in which she advocated for "calling China's bluff".
Finally, in this episode's edition of "There I was...", Jim describes working with a U.S. company involved in exploring Indonesia's North Natuna Sea, where there is a dispute with China's vast maritime claims. He observes how a country's own perception of its national interests is often very different from what outsiders believe it should be.
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Jim and Ray welcome Charlie Edel, Australia Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, about the significance of AUKUS--a trilateral security pact between Australia, the UK and the US--focusing on its implications for defense and technology collaboration in the Indo-Pacific region.
Their discussion covers the origins of AUKUS, its strategic importance, the controversies around "Pillar One" (nuclear submarine production), and the challenges and potential for expanding partnerships beyond the three countries in "Pillar Two" (advanced technology cooperation).
The conversation then moves on to the need for building enhanced deterrence capabilities to meet the growing China threat, and the evolving nature of defense technology collaboration.
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Ray and Jim welcome retired Lieutenant General Chun In-bum of the South Korean Army to discuss North Korea's increasing role in supplying arms to the Russian war machine. General Chun highlights the long history of North Korea’s illicit arms industry, and how its ambitions pose not just regional but global challenges.
General Chun emphasizes the need for a nuanced understanding of North Korea's changing military ambitions in the context of its ever-shifting relationships with China and Russia. He emphasizes that U.S. policy toward North Korea has often been flawed by misguided hopes that the Hermit Kingdom might respond positively to offers of engagement or inducements.
The discussion turns to the challenge that North Korea’s nuclear program poses to a strained global non-proliferation regime, and the real potential for South Korea and other countries under threat to break out and pursue their own nuclear capabilities if their faith in U.S. extended deterrence fails.
General Chun contemplates the question of an “Asian NATO”, appreciates the long history of American service in South Korea, and makes an impassioned plea to Americans to hold to their country’s historic ideals.
In our “There I was…” segment, Ray tells an amazing-but-true story of how his Air Force unit once encountered the toughness of South Korean Special Forces.
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Union College Professor Mark Dallas--also a senior advisor to the U.S. Department of Commerce--joins Jim and Ray to delve into how the recently accelerating movement of global supply chains away from China is affecting consumers, employment and national security, both in the U.S. and around the world.
Professor Dallas explains the importance and complexity of global supply chains, and explores how COVID-19 brought their vulnerabilities into the public awareness. He unpacks how 'friend-shoring' has emerged as a western strategy to reduce supply-chain reliance on potential adversaries by sourcing goods and labor through more friendly countries.
One reason China's manufacturing capabilities became so dominant in global supply chains was its ability to geographically cluster manufacturing sites closely together for maximum efficiency.
Professor Dallas explains that while authoritarian policies, geopolitical shocks and cybersecurity threats pose serious challenges to global supply chain integrity, decoupling supply chains away from China is far more complicated than it sounds.
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Michael Brosowski, founder of the Blue Dragon Children's Foundation in Hanoi, discusses how his organization combats human trafficking in Vietnam, though he asserts that trafficking is a global problem--a crime against humanity that affects everyone.
Trafficking in Vietnam is a constantly changing and evolving challenge, one that often targets disadvantaged youth seeking job and life opportunities. Blue Dragon has leveraged collaboration with the Vietnamese and other governments to intervene.
Last decade one of the biggest problems Blue Dragon found was that women were being trafficked across the border into China, where decades of the "One-Child Policy" had left a severe gender imbalance. Blue Dragon has worked with both governments to stem the flow of brides across the border so that it is a more manageable problem today.
Michael discusses how Blue Dragon often conducts dramatic, sometimes risky rescue operations to secure trafficked persons' freedom. These require careful planning and often involve rapid responses to calls for help, sometimes even across borders.
Aftercare for survivors is a key part of the program. This is highly individualized, and may include psychological, financial, vocational and legal supports.
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Ray & Jim interview the former U.S. National Security Advisor H.R. McMaster about his New York Times bestselling memoir, “At War With Ourselves: My Tour of Duty in the Trump White House”.
Lieutenant General McMaster unpacks how he believes the Trump Administration executed a long-overdue shift in America’s strategy towards China, from a policy based on a false hope of integration into the U.S.-led international order to one that emphasized the need to engage in great power competition to prevent a revisionist China and Russia from overthrowing that order.
McMaster explains how he tried to implement President Trump’s policy of "putting America first" and demanding reciprocal trade agreements and defense burden-sharing among America’s allies, even as he himself advocated with the president for maintaining strong alliances and a muscular forward military presence to deter conflict, and explains his assertion that the greatest provocation for aggressors is the "perception of American weakness".
McMaster also pushes for the rebuilding of America’s defense industrial base in order to deter escalation in the Indo-Pacific and elsewhere, especially in places like Taiwan, the Philippines and the South China Sea.
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Jim and Ray talk to Dr. Euan Graham of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute about how Malaysia's positive relations with Beijing--despite ongoing tensions in the South China Sea--may be attributed to its deep economic ties with China. In particular, Malaysia's Prime Minister, Anwar Ibrahim, has taken a friendly stance towards China and downplayed security concerns, even as China continues to press its maritime claims.
They discuss Malaysia's approach to geopolitics as it is about to assume the rotating chair of ASEAN, with which Beijing has been slow-rolling South China Sea Code of Conduct negotiations for decades--a circumstance that has grated on leaders in the Philippines who have sought stronger ASEAN support. For this reason, ASEAN's centrality in managing security issues is increasingly in question.
Malaysian leaders see their approach as being pragmatic and flexible, while they see the Philippine approach as being unnecessarily confrontational.
In "There I was...", Jim tells the story of his meeting with Anwar's daughter and the U.S.'s efforts to secure Anwar's release from jail two decades ago.
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Jim & Ray talk to former U.S. Consul General to Hong Kong Hanscom Smith about the recent erosion of its autonomy and why he still believes in maintaining support for its people. Hanscom argues that despite its recent challenges, Hong Kong remains economically distinct from mainland China, though he acknowledges that the erosion of political autonomy has serious implications for Hong Kong's future. He asserts that international businesses still see value in maintaining a presence in Hong Kong, though the 2019 national security law has created uncertainty. He reflects back on his time there, which encompassed both the 2019 protests and the COVID-19 outbreak.
Finally, in a special update Jim asks Hanscom to respond to recent US State Department warnings to businesses in Hong Kong and the passage through the US House of Representatives of the Hong Kong Economic and Trade Office Certification Act.
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Former Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull joins Jim and Ray to give his pointed views on what he believes would be a high-risk second Donald Trump Administration on the Indo-Pacific against the relative continuity represented by Vice President Kamala Harris. Citing Trump's narcissism and erratic behavior, Turnbull asserts that the former president's return would unsettle U.S. alliance relationships across the region.
Turning to how foreign leaders can prepare for a possible "Trump 2", Turnbull emphasizes the need to forge a direct relationship with him, as traditional methods of working through senior officials and advisors have limited influence on his decisions. He shares his own experience of dealing with Trump while he was prime minister, such as persuading him not to impose steel tariffs on Australia.
Turnbull also details his objections to the Australia-UK-US (AUKUS) submarine deal. He criticizes the decision to abandon Australia's partnership with France to build diesel-electric submarines and instead opt for nuclear-powered submarines with America and Great Britain. Turnbull argues that this decision undermines Australian sovereignty and poses unacceptable risks due to the potential that limited supplies of U.S. submarines may well result in their being unavailable to meet Australia's needs.
He also discusses how Australia has dealt with China's influence and espionage operations, and specifically why his government was among the world's first to refuse to allow Huawei to build 5G networks in the country.
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Ray and Jim discuss the recent tense and sometimes violent maritime confrontations between China and the Philippines with expert Greg Poling, author of "On Dangerous Ground: America's Century in the South China Sea". They consider what these developments mean for America's long-standing alliance commitment to the Philippines, which Greg asserts is finally being treated like a "real ally" on equivalent footing with more developed countries like Japan.
Greg explores the origins of China's vast claims to the South China Sea--including the origins of the so-called "nine-dash line"--and then works through progression of its gray zone campaign from Scarborough Shoal to Second Thomas Shoal to its latest flashpoint at Sabina Shoal.
The conversation turns to the impact of President Rodrigo Duterte's administration (2016-2022), which turned away from the U.S. alliance and leaned hard into its relationship with Beijing.
They also discuss ASEAN's fragmentation over the South China Sea issue and what it means for a future Code of Conduct.
To close, Ray tells the story of his experience in Vietnam when large protests broke out in 2014 over a Chinese oil rig operating in the Gulf of Tonkin.
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Ray & Jim talk to Indonesian investment banker, entrepreneur, philanthropist, musician and podcaster Gita Wirjawan, who was also the country's former trade minister from 2011-14. They discuss the significance of Indonesia as the world's third largest democracy and the largest country in Southeast Asia, and its potential to grow its economy and internationalize its profile under incoming President Prabowo Subianto. They discuss Probowo's past allegations of human rights violations, and what implications this has on his future presidency. The conversation touches on topics such as Indonesia's view of its place in the region and in ASEAN; whether it should join the BRICS grouping; its tradition of non-alignment and its perceived security threats; the ongoing relocation of its capital city; and the need for more and different sources of energy and increased foreign direct investment for the country's development.
Afterwards, Jim asks Ray to respond to online rumors that Ray is secretly a U.S. government agent.
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Jim and Ray talk to Stanford University scholar Arzan Tarapore, who highlights India's emerging role as an anchor of U.S. security policy in the Indo-Pacific, despite the fact that India values its strategic autonomy. Arzan highlights the growing threat posed to India by China. He emphasizes India's need to prioritize investments in its Navy to counter this challenge, but also lays out concerns that these investments are starting to lag. The conversation also touches on India's relationship with Russia and the balancing act it faces in maintaining partnerships with opposing geopolitical camps.
For our "There I was..." segment, Jim talks about his time among some of the world's top baseball players while he was posted in the Dominican Republic.
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Rhombus Power founder and CEO Anshu Roy explains to Ray and Jim how artificial intelligence (AI) has been able to predict future global crises months before they occurred--including events such as the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and this summer's regime-ending political instability in Bangladesh.
By sifting through vast amounts of data, AI augments and complements human analysis by identifying patterns and anomalies that even the best analysts can easily miss, and then synthesizing them into projections about future events.
Roy further explains how important it is to carefully and continuously curate data sources to prevent AI "hallucinations" as often occur on less sophisticated applications such as ChatGPT. Rhombus incorporates over 500 streams of publicly available and commercial data sources--from satellite service providers to media to socioeconomic data.
In the hands of responsible actors AI has tremendous potential to prevent future conflict and other crises by reducing uncertainty and buying time for better decision-making. However, it can also be a terrifying tool in the hands of our adversaries.
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Jim and Ray talk to Indonesian expert Aristyo Darmawan about how international law applies to the contest over the South China Sea. Aristyo explains how a rules-based international order ensures equal footing for all countries, and unpacks the history and significance of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS)--particularly from an Indonesian perspective.
They also discuss the challenges and limitations of the ASEAN-China Code of Conduct negotiations, and whether they will ever result in an actual agreement or whether they are being used by Beijing as a delaying tactic while it consolidates control. Specifically, Aristyo answers the question of whether ASEAN is able to address the actual security concerns of a nation under direct threat such as the Philippines currently faces from China.
The conversation concludes with a comparison of Canberra and Jakarta as capital cities, and then Jim tells the story of how his family weathered severe flooding during his tour in Indonesia.
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Jim and Ray talk to former Australian Home Affairs Secretary Michael Pezzullo to discuss the critical challenge of defense procurement and weapons production in the face of the looming threat of conflict in the Indo-Pacific while wars rage in Europe and the Middle East. Pezzullo emphasizes the urgent need for the Australia, the U.S. and their allies to address their defense industrial base capacity to deter such a war--or win, if necessary. For Australia he proposes the creation of a statutory commission to streamline the procurement process and speed up production. He also highlights the importance of diplomatic efforts and the need for a collective security agreement in the Pacific region to counter China's strategic ascendancy.
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