Afleveringen
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This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Célia Belin, head of ECFR’s Paris office and senior policy fellow, and Jeremy Cliffe, ECFR’s editorial director and senior policy fellow, to discuss Marine Le Pen’s decision to run in France’s 2027 presidential election.
After a Paris appeal court ruling rescinded her ban from holding public office, Le Pen has reasserted leadership of the far-right National Rally (RN) and sidelined Jordan Bardella, who was widely expected to lead the party into the 2027 election. Her announcement has led to rivals across the centre and the left recalibrating their strategies in an already volatile political landscape.
Together, Mark, Célia and Jeremy explore how Le Pen’s candidacy changes France’s electoral outlook. They discuss whether she is a stronger candidate than Bardella, how French political parties are preparing for an election that RN enters as the favourite, and they draw on ECFR research to examine what an RN presidency could mean in practice.
Would a Le Pen government seek confrontation with Brussels? How might it reshape France’s approach to migration, the EU budget and European integration? Could nationalist governments across Europe really cooperate? And how would a Le Pen presidency impact relations with Ukraine, the US and France’s European allies?
This podcast episode was recorded on July 8th 2026.
Bookshelf
Marie Antoinette by Stefan ZweigMuskism by Quinn Slobodian and Ben TarnoffIf Bardella wins: Scenarios for a far-right presidency in France by Célia Belin, Jeremy Cliffe, Camille Lons and Constance VictorHosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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This week, Mark Leonard speaks to Mike Kuiken, vice chair of the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission, and Randy Schriver, chair of the commission and former US assistant secretary of defence for Indo-Pacific security affairs, about US-China relations in this period of heightened geopolitical uncertainty.
The war in Iran and Russia’s war against Ukraine are raising questions about the balance between the Indo-Pacific and other global theatres. Together, Mark, Mike and Randy discuss the implications of China’s support for Russia and Iran, competition in emerging technologies such as AI, biotechnology and quantum computing, and whether the United Nations could be an arena for strategic rivalry. How is the conflict in the Middle East affecting America’s Indo-Pacific strategy? How would a crisis over Taiwan impact global semiconductor supply chains? And what do these developments mean for Europe?
This podcast episode was recorded on April 23rd 2026.
Bookshelf
Freedom’s forge by Arthur Herman
The Island at the Center of the World by Russell Shorto
Acquired
Wall-e
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Zijn er afleveringen die ontbreken?
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It is ten years since Britain’s decision to leave the European Union, and the country is once again facing political upheaval. Keir Starmer has resigned as prime minister after his Labour rival Andy Burnham’s decisive victory in the Makerfield by-election. At the same time, ECFR has released new research which suggests that the public view on Brexit has evolved significantly—despite much of the political debate still being rooted in the divisions of 2016.
This week, Mark Leonard speaks with Marcus Roberts, CEO of Mandate Research and longtime Labour strategist, about how attitudes towards Brexit have changed and what this means for Britain’s political future. A decade on from Brexit, British politics remains turbulent, but public opinion is changing in ways that many politicians have failed to recognise.
Bookshelf
ECFR policy brief: Brexit isn’t working: British voters are ready for a European future
This podcast was recorded on June 24th 2026
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This week, Julien Barnes-Dacey welcomes Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud, Saudi Arabia’s minister of foreign affairs, for a fireside chat at ECFR’s Annual Council Meeting. In Prince Faisal’s first public appearance since the Iran-US memorandum of understanding was announced, he and Julien discuss what the deal means for the prospect of stability in the Middle East.
Prince Faisal argues that the memorandum presents an important opportunity to end the conflict and create a diplomatic path forward. While he welcomes efforts to address Iran’s nuclear programme, he stresses that long-term verification mechanisms, freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and a broader regional security dialogue are essential to building confidence and preventing future crises. He also warns that recent attacks have created a deep trust deficit between Iran and its Gulf neighbours, making any meaningful economic rapprochement a long-term challenge.
Julien and Prince Faisal explore Saudi Arabia’s role in supporting diplomacy between Washington and Tehran, the need to balance deterrence with diplomatic engagement, and how regional actors can rebuild trust after the conflict. They also discuss Israel’s opposition to the agreement, the future of Gaza, the importance of a political horizon for Palestinians and whether military approaches alone can deliver long-term security in the Middle East.
Is the Iran-US agreement a foundation for a more durable regional security framework? How can Iran and its neighbours rebuild trust? What role should the US, Europe and Middle Eastern powers play in shaping the next phase of diplomacy? And is there still a viable path towards a broader political settlement in the Middle East?
This episode was recorded on June 17th 2026.
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This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Carl Benedikt Frey, associate professor of AI and work at the Oxford Internet Institute and author of How Progress Ends: Technology, Innovation and the Fate of Nations, to discuss whether AI enthusiasm is obscuring a more fundamental problem: the global slowdown in productivity and innovation.
Carl argues that technological progress is neither inevitable nor guaranteed. Despite rapid advances in computing, the internet and AI, productivity growth is stagnating. He suggests that innovation depends on the institutions, incentives and political conditions—as well as technological breakthroughs—that allow societies to adapt and scale new ideas.
Mark and Carl explore what the rise of AI reveals about the changing balance between innovation and concentration, why China’s embrace of open-weight AI models could challenge American technological leadership, and why Europe continues to struggle in digital industries despite its strengths in manufacturing.
Is AI about to unleash a new era of prosperity? Why has productivity growth remained weak despite decades of technological advances? What does the AI race mean for competition between the US, China and Europe? And is the greatest risk facing advanced economies the end of progress itself?
This episode was recorded on April 30th 2026.
Bookshelf
Milton Friedman: The Last Conservative by Jennifer Burns
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This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Anton Jäger, lecturer in politics at Oxford University and author of Hyperpolitics: Extreme Politicization Without Political Consequences, to discuss why political engagement is surging across Western democracies—even as traditional political institutions continue to weaken.
Anton argues that the West has entered a “hyperpolitics” era, marked by intense political engagement and protest but lacking durable organisations capable of sustaining change. Unlike the 1930s, to which the current era is often compared, today’s citizens are more politicised yet less likely to join institutions that enable long-term collective action.
Mark and Anton explore how social media shapes political expression, why contemporary politics feels simultaneously more intense and less effective, and what figures like Donald Trump reveal about the relationship between political mobilisation and institutional power. They examine why right-wing movements appear to have adapted more successfully to the hyperpolitical age, and whether a new form of political organisation could eventually emerge from today’s fragmented landscape.
What explains the growing gap between political engagement and political influence? Why are traditional institutions struggling to channel public discontent? Has the right found a more effective formula for the hyperpolitical era? And how could we move from hyperpolitics to a new age of institutional politics?
This episode was recorded on March 27th 2026.
Bookshelf:
Hyperpolitics: Extreme Politicization without Political Consequences by Anton Jäger
Nations and Nationalism by Ernest Gellner
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This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Liam Byrne, a British Labour Party MP and chair of the House of Commons Business and Trade Select Committee, to talk about the rise of right-wing populism across Europe and why mainstream politics is struggling to respond. Drawing on his new book, Why Populists are Winning and How to Beat Them, Byrne argues that widening wealth gap, declining local communities and broken promise of democracy have created fertile ground for populist movements.
Together, Mark and Liam explore the different groups of voters supporting populist parties, the powerful networks funding and amplifying populist movements, and why mainstream parties may be making a strategic political mistake by chasing harder-line rhetoric.
The conversation ultimately tackles why more voters are turning away from mainstream parties, the roles economic stagnation, cultural pessimism and immigration play in driving support for populists, and how wealthy donors, media ecosystems and digital platforms have reshaped populist discourse across Europe and beyond.
Bookshelf
Billionaire Backlash: The Age of Corporate Scandal and How it Could Save Democracy - Pepper Culpepper and Taeku Lee
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This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Kelsey Davenport, director for non-proliferation policy at the Arms Control Association, and Ellie Geranmayeh, deputy director of ECFR’s Middle East and North Africa programme, to introduce ECFR’s Iran nuclear monitor. The new online tool, updated monthly, forecasts Iran’s nuclear programme after a year of Israeli and American strikes, and maps possible paths for future negotiations, inspections and escalation.
Almost a year on from the first US and Israeli bombings of Iran, uncertainty is growing around the future of the country’s nuclear programme. With a fragile ceasefire in place, Mark, Kelsey and Ellie discuss the six scenarios outlined in the Iran nuclear monitor and whether Europe has a role in shaping negotiations. They also suggest that military strikes alone have not resolved the nuclear dilemma: instead, any durable agreement will likely depend on phased confidence-building, intrusive inspections and difficult political compromises on both sides.
Together, they explore three critical questions shaping the future of peace negotiations: What will happen to Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium? Can Tehran and Washington overcome disagreements over uranium enrichment and the duration of a moratorium on Iran’s nuclear activities? And how can international inspectors rebuild monitoring after nearly a year without full access to Iran’s nuclear sites?
The link to the Iran nuclear monitor could be reached here.
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This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Curtis Yarvin, American blogger and political thinker, to talk about the ideas reshaping parts of the American right and Silicon Valley. Known for his critiques of liberal democracy, bureaucracy and what he calls “the cathedral”, Yarvin reflects on his intellectual journey from libertarianism to monarchism and explains why some of his arguments have an audience among tech figures and Trump supporters.
Together Mark and Curtis explore the growing alliance between parts of Silicon Valley and MAGA, and why he believes modern governments are too procedural and inefficient to cope with technological and political change. From AI and automation to the future of human labour, he argues that the 21st century will force societies to rethink the purpose of government and the structure of the economy itself.
As debates around democracy, technology and elite power intensify, this episode asks: why are more people losing faith in liberal democratic institutions? And can modern governments function effectively in an age of technological transformation?
Bookshelf
The Machiavellians: Defenders of Freedom by James Burnham
Latter-Day Pamphlets by Thomas Carlyle
Popular Government by Henry Maine
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This week, Mark Leonard is joined by David Runciman, British political theorist and philosopher, to explore whether today’s sense of crisis really marks the end of democracy—or something more complex. As the global order fragments, Runciman argues that democracy itself is not disappearing, but the forces shaping the world no longer fit the model that worked for the past 50 years.
From shifting demographics and rising inequality, to a transforming technological landscape, together Mark and David explore why systems that once seemed stable are now under strain. In a world which is both more and less democratic, liberal states face pressure from within and without.
Rather than predicting collapse, the discussion asks how democracies can evolve. What needs to change and what happens if it doesn’t?
Bookshelf
Goliath’s Curse: The History and Future of Societal Collapse by Luke Kemp
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This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Ayşe Zarakol, professor of international relations at Cambridge University, to explore whether today’s global crises signal disorder or a deeper shift toward “unorder,” where shared rules and assumptions are no longer relevant.
Drawing on historical parallels—from the interwar period to the upheavals of the 17th century—Zarakol suggests that this may be the start of a longer era of fragmentation. Together, they examine what this means for Europe, from letting go of old ways of thinking to redefining its role in a more unpredictable world.
Rather than restoring a fading order, the focus shifts to a more urgent scenario: what is worth preserving and how can Europe adapt to chaos to survive?
This podcast episode was recorded on 26th of February.
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This week in London, Mark Leonard introduced his new book Surviving Chaos: Geopolitics When the Rules Fail and reflected on what it means to navigate a world in which old assumptions about rules-based order, power and international cooperation no longer hold.
ECFR’s new weekly accompaniment podcast series “Surviving Chaos” will introduce the most interesting and controversial thinkers to explain the current period. The first episode brings together a conversation between Mark and Carl Bildt, former prime minister and former foreign minister of Sweden; Ivan Krastev, chair of the Centre for Liberal Strategies; and Helle Thorning-Schmidt, former prime minister of Denmark, moderated by Gideon Rachman, chief foreign affairs commentator at the Financial Times.
Opening the discussion, EU ambassador to the UK Pedro Serrano highlighted the importance of a strong and united Europe in defending peace, prosperity and democratic values, before the panel explored how policymakers can move from rigid grand strategies to more “artisan” approaches to power. They also considered whether the current moment represents a temporary crisis or a deeper rupture—and the impact on Europe’s security, economic model and political identity.
From the future of the transatlantic relationship to the war in Ukraine, to AI surveillance and the Middle East, the discussion examined how global instability is impacting the choices facing European decision-makers. Drawing on Mark’s argument that the world is in an age of “unorder”, the speakers discussed the types of political imagination, resilience and practical action Europeans will need. The crucial question: How can Europe navigate chaos?
Mark Leonard’s book Surviving Chaos: Geopolitics When the Rules Fail is now available in all bookstores and online.
This episode will also be published on the EEAS website.
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This week, Mark Leonard speaks with Zsuzsanna Szelényi, a Hungarian politician and foreign policy specialist, about the forces behind Hungary’s historic political shift and what comes next for both the country and Europe.
Together they explore how economic pressures, corruption scandals, and a newly mobilised electorate—especially younger voters—reshaped Hungary’s political landscape after 16 years. They also evaluate Magyar’s promises of reform, a reset with Europe and a more participatory role on key issues like Ukraine.
What explains Orbán’s defeat? Can Magyar deliver real democratic change? And what does Hungary’s new direction mean for Europe and Ukraine?
Bookshelf:
Works of Zadie Smith, Ruth Ozeki and Sofi Oksanen
This podcast was recorded on April 13th, 2026.
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For the last few days, a set of pronouncements from the White House have filled the news regarding the war in Iran. President Donald Trump has gone from threatening to destroy an entire civilisation to negotiating a ceasefire between Washington and Tehran, led by Pakistan.
This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, senior associate fellow at ECFR and research fellow at the Brookings Institution, to discuss the current state of play. What does the ceasefire mean for the future of the Middle East and for American foreign policy? How will it impact Europe, and global security more generally? And will Trump make good on his threat to withdraw from NATO?
This podcast was recorded on April 9th, 2026.
Bookshelf:
Mother Mary Comes to Me by Arundhati Roy
The Loneliness of Sonia and Sunny by Kiran Desai
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This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Szymon Kardaś, senior policy fellow in ECFR's European Power programme, to unpack how war in the Middle East is reshaping Europe’s energy landscape. While Europe is not heavily reliant on Middle Eastern imports directly, disruptions—especially around Qatar and the Strait of Hormuz—are pushing up global prices and intensifying competition with Asian buyers, exposing Europe’s deeper structural vulnerabilities.
Together, Mark and Szymon explore the risk of renewed dependence on Russian energy, reliance on American LNG, and what this crisis reveals about Europe’s long-term energy strategy. As the conflict continues, the pressure is growing for Europe to accelerate its transition towards renewables and greater energy resilience.
How exposed is Europe to the global energy fallout? What role does Qatar play in the current gas crisis? Could Europe return to Russian energy imports under pressure? And what policies are needed to reduce Europe’s long-term energy dependence?
Bookshelf Recommendation
Grzegorz Braun Gram vabank by Tomasz Sommer
This podcast was recorded on April 1st 2026.
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This week Mark Leonard welcomes Jana Kobzova, co-director of ECFR’s European Security programme and senior policy fellow, to discuss how the war in Iran is reshaping Ukraine’s war effort. What began as cautious optimism in Kyiv has turned into concern, as American military resources—especially air-defence systems—are redirected to the Middle East, leaving Ukraine increasingly exposed to Russian attacks.
Mark and Jana also explore the broader geopolitical fallout: stalled diplomacy, rising oil prices benefiting Russia and growing divisions within Europe that risk weakening support for Ukraine at a critical moment. The longer the Iran war continues, the more difficult Ukraine’s position becomes.
What does the Iran war mean for Ukraine’s military position? How is US support being affected? Why does the conflict benefit Russia economically? And can Europe maintain a united stance on Ukraine?
Bookshelf Recommendation
Russia in 1839 by Astolphe de Custine
This podcast was recorded on March 26, 2026.
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Mark Leonard welcomes Piotr Buras, Carla Hobbs, Camille Lons, Jana Puglierin and Arturo Varvelli and to discuss how Europe is responding to the war in Iran.
This week Mark Leonard records live from ECFR’s all-staff retreat in Sofia, bringing together colleagues from across the continent to unpack European reactions to the escalating conflict between the US, Israel and Iran. While some leaders have taken a firm stance against the war, others have shifted position and divisions are emerging across Europe.
Why has Spain taken such a clear line against the conflict? How is Germany balancing its relationship with the US, Israel and Ukraine? What role is France seeking to play as a military and diplomatic actor? And how are countries like Italy and Poland navigating domestic pressures alongside their transatlantic ties?
This podcast was recorded on March 20, 2026.
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This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Aziz Alghashian, senior non-resident fellow at the Gulf International Forum, Eran Etzion, former Israeli diplomat and deputy head of Israel’s National Security Council at the Pime Minister’s Office and Ellie Geranmayeh, deputy director of ECFR’s Middle East and North Africa programme.
Over the past couple of weeks, the US and Israel have continued attacking Iranian military and energy infrastructure, Iran has appointed a new Supreme Leader in Mojtaba Khamenei, oil prices have surged and Iran is targeting tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. But amid all this activity, America’s war aims remain as unclear as ever, exacerbated by dozens of conflicting statements from President Trump and US senior officials.
Together, Mark, Aziz, Eran and Ellie assess the state of the conflict in Middle East, focusing on the political climate in Iran, Israel and the Gulf states. Does Trump have a way out? Is there any path to de-escalation? For how long will the war last? And what does this mean for the Middle East—and for Europe?
Bookshelf:
A Kurdish Rebellion in Iran Could Be a Disaster – Ellie Geranmayeh
Tomorrow is Yesterday: Life, Death, and the Pursuit of Peace in Israel/Palestine - Hussein Agha and Robert Malley
This episode was recorded on March 12th 2026.
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This week Mark Leonard speaks to Raja Mohan, academic and foreign policy analyst, in a podcast episode recorded live from New Delhi during the Raisina Dialogue conference. Together they explore how India views the current global moment: from the resilience of US autonomy to the diffusion of influence across emerging powers.
Why has India’s relationship with the EU become more strategically important? How is New Delhi balancing ties with Beijing, Moscow and Washington while deepening economic integration with Western partners? And what role could India and Europe play together in shaping security, technology and connectivity across a wider “Indo-Mediterranean” region?
This podcast was recorded on March 4 2026 in New Delhi during the Raisina Dialogue.
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In this emergency episode, Mark Leonard is joined by Ellie Geranmayeh, deputy director of ECFR’s Middle East and North Africa programme, Jeremy Shapiro, ECFR’s research director, and Cinzia Bianco, ECFR visiting fellow, to discuss the dramatic escalation following a massive joint US–Israeli military operation against Iran’s leadership and military infrastructure.
What are Trump’s war aims and does he really seek regime change? Could Iran’s political system survive this shock, or is deeper transformation underway? How are Gulf states reacting as they find themselves on the front line? And with Europe largely sidelined so far, what role could or should Europeans play in preventing further escalation?
This emergency episode was recorded on Sunday afternoon, 2pm UK time, as events continue to unfold.
Trump’s strikes on Iran are an illegal war of choice—and Europeans should say so by Ellie Geranmayeh
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