Afleveringen
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In this episode, Matt and Jack dive into the timeless wisdom of Jack Schwager, renowned author of the Market Wizards series. Drawing from two insightful interviews with Schwager, they explore key lessons from some of the greatest traders he’s interviewed, like Paul Tudor Jones and Steve Cohen, and unpack how these principles apply not only to trading but also to long-term investing and life.
From risk management to overcoming failure, this episode blends Schwager’s expertise with Jack and Matt’s commentary, offering valuable takeaways for investors of all kinds.
Main Topics Covered:
Paul Tudor Jones’ approach to avoiding complacency by evaluating your portfolio as if you started it today.Steve Cohen’s strategy of cutting positions in half when uncertain to manage indecision effectively.
The commonality of early failures among top traders and the resilience needed to learn from them.
Debunking the myth that good money management can salvage a poor trading system—why edge is essential.
Jack Schwager’s personal realization that he wasn’t suited for trading and how he found his strength in curating trading wisdom.
The necessity of adapting trading strategies as markets evolve over time.
How Schwager found discretionary trading less emotionally taxing than systematic approaches.
Stanley Druckenmiller’s bold position sizing under George Soros’ influence and when to break the rules.
Joel Greenblatt’s lesson on waiting for the right opportunity rather than forcing trades.
Simplifying risk management with straightforward rules that anyone can follow.
The value investor’s dilemma of buying more as prices drop versus cutting losses.
How technology, like social media, has opened new trading strategies unavailable in the past.
Position sizing as an extension of risk management, determined by acceptable loss levels.
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In this episode, we dive into the most controversial takesfrom our podcast guests. Inspired by a brilliant question from Meb Faber(thanks, Meb!), we’ve compiled insights from top financial minds to explorebeliefs that challenge conventional wisdom. From debunking dividend hype toreimagining the role of options and AI in investing, this episode is packedwith thought-provoking perspectives.
Main Topics Covered:
- Meb Faber challenges the obsession with dividends
- Mike Green introduces Goodhart’s Law to investing,suggesting that once a metric is tracked, its effectiveness diminishes.
- Jim Paulsen downplays the importance of monetary policyand valuation, emphasizing Main Street sentiment over Wall Street metrics.
- Ben Carlson defends retail investors, claiming they’rebetter behaved than ever thanks to modern tools and advice.
- Dan Rasmussen disputes the predictability of growth,asserting past financials reveal little about a company’s future.
- Lindsay Bell and Shannon Saccocia advocate for learningthrough failure and a forward-looking, futurist mindset in investing.
- Cem Karsan flips the script, arguing options are the trueunderlying asset, not derivatives.
- Andrew Beer champions simplicity over complexity, citingthe success of straightforward hedge fund bets.
- Jason Buck questions the existence of long-term alpha,favoring a diversified, rebalanced approach.
- Ian Cassel challenges the low-turnover mantra, suggestinghigh turnover can work.
- Scott McBride dismisses the need for catalysts in valueinvesting, focusing on valuation and governance.
- Larry Swedroe critiques low-volatility strategies, arguingthey only shine when paired with value.
- Kris Sidial highlights the importance of trading psyche, aview often dismissed by quant-driven peers.
- Kai Wu predicts AI will enhance, not replace, financialjobs by handling rote tasks and freeing humans for creativity.
- Doug Clinton forecasts a multi-trillion-dollar AI-poweredasset management industry within a decade.
- Meb Faber (again!) flips the narrative on internationalinvesting, showing it’s a winner for 49 out of 50 countries.
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Zijn er afleveringen die ontbreken?
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In this episode, we break down key lessons from our conversation with Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, exploring timeless investment principles and market dynamics that remain relevant regardless of current market conditions. From the end of the "Great Moderation" era to practical insights about market timing and portfolio management, Liz Ann's wisdom offers valuable perspective for investors of all levels.
Main topics covered:
• The transition from the "Great Moderation" era to what Liz Ann calls the "Temperamental Era" - understanding how inflation volatility and market dynamics are shifting
• Why "rolling recessions" matter and how different sectors of the economy can experience downturns at different times
• The limitations of valuation metrics as market timing tools and why they shouldn't be used for short-term decisions
• How uncertainty is a constant in markets and why claiming "above average uncertainty" is often misleading
• Important lessons from Martin Zweig about market timing versus trend following
• The dangers of benchmark obsession and why comparing everything to the S&P 500 can lead to poor investment decisions
• Why "all in" or "all out" market timing strategies rarely work and the importance of disciplined portfolio management
• Practical advice for handling concentrated stock positions and the challenges of rebalancing during market gains
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In this episode, Jack and Matt dive deep into the state of value investing with special guest Tobias Carlisle, founder of the Acquirers Funds and author of multiple books on value investing. In this insightful conversation, they look at some of the most insightful clips from our guests including Cliff Asness, Aswath Damodaran, Kai Wu, Scott McBride, Larry Swedroe and Dan Rasmussen.
They explore why value investing has struggled in recent years, examine value spreads, and discuss whether this time is truly different. Tobias offers a compelling case for why value investors might finally see their patience rewarded.
Topics covered:
• Value spreads and how they've evolved from historically consistent ranges to unprecedented widths in recent years
• Why value doesn't necessarily need catalysts or multiple expansion to generate returns
• The impact of intangible assets on value metrics and whether traditional valuation methods need updating
• How indexing and passive investing have affected market dynamics and created potential opportunities
• The underperformance of international stocks compared to US markets and whether that trend might reverse
• Why the "Magnificent 7" tech stocks have defied mean reversion and if that can continue
• How to maintain conviction as a value investor during extended periods of underperformance
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In this compilation episode, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler bring you the most valuable insights from our interviews with Bob Elliott, founder of Unlimited Funds and former head of Ray Dalio's research team at Bridgewater.
🔑 Key Topics Covered:
Markets and Macroeconomic Reality
Elliott dismantles the notion that markets can permanently detach from economic fundamentals, walking through how earnings, margins, and wage growth are all interconnected. He explains why claims of "this time it's different" rarely hold true over longer time horizons.
The "Big or Small" Framework
Learn the powerful yet simple framework Elliott used at Bridgewater to tackle complex problems, including how he assessed the 2008 housing crisis with the straightforward question: "This housing problem, big or small?"
Income-Driven vs. Debt-Driven Economic Cycles
Discover why the post-COVID economy behaved differently than many expected and why the Fed's rate hikes didn't crash the economy – Elliott explains the crucial difference between income-driven and debt-driven economic cycles.
True Diversification Beyond 60/40
Elliott challenges conventional portfolio construction, explaining why the traditional 60/40 portfolio worked well only during specific economic conditions of the past 40 years and offers practical advice for genuine diversification in an uncertain future.
Wage Growth and Inflation
Understand the tight relationship between wage growth and inflation, and why inflation can't meaningfully decline while wage growth remains elevated without productivity improvements.
The Fed's Decision-Making Process
Elliott provides insight into why the Federal Reserve appears "behind the curve," explaining how its consensus-driven, backward-looking data approach creates policy delays by design.
Whether you're a seasoned investor or just beginning your financial journey, Elliott's analytical frameworks and practical insights will help you think more clearly about markets, economic cycles, and portfolio construction in an increasingly complex financial landscape.
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In this episode, Jack and Matt dive deep into unique perspectives on markets and investing through the lens of Warren Pies and Fernando Vidal's innovative research approaches.
They explore:
A fresh take on the 60/40 portfolio debate and why the death of this strategy may be greatly exaggerated
How to interpret market breadth and retail sentiment through new indicators like inverse ETF volume
Why Treasury actions may be just as important as Fed policy in today's marketsThe critical relationship between bond yields, supply/demand dynamics, and what it means for investors
Practical insights on AI's impact on productivity and investment research
Why certain market indicators that worked in the past may need updating for today's environment
Warren and Fernando bring data-driven, original analysis to these topics, offering viewers a unique perspective that goes beyond traditional market commentary. Whether you're an investment professional or individual investor, this episode provides actionable insights on current market dynamics and evolving investment frameworks.
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In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt and Jack explore key lessons from one of our most popular guests, Cem Karsan. Through selected clips from multiple interviews, they unpack Karsan's unique insights on markets, investing, and risk management.
The discussion covers critical concepts including:
The fundamental importance of supply, demand, and liquidity in markets
Why thinking probabilistically is essential for both investing and life
How different time frames affect investment decisions and market dynamics
The impact of options trading on market volatility
A fascinating analysis of election year returns that challenges conventional wisdom
Perspectives on retirement and viewing work as an extension of self
Whether you're an active trader, long-term investor, or financial professional, this episode offers valuable frameworks for understanding markets and risk. Jack and Matt break down complex concepts into actionable insights, showing how Karsan's options trading background provides unique perspectives that can benefit investors of all types.
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In this episode, Matt and Jack break down key insights from our interview with market strategist Jim Paulsen. Paulsen offers unique perspectives on how markets have evolved over his 40-year career, from the days when investors checked bank signs for daily Dow quotes to today's high-speed algorithmic trading environment.
Key topics covered:
Why traditional market valuation metrics may need updating for the modern era
A novel way to measure productivity through "profit per job" and its implications for market valuations
Why Main Street confidence has remained low despite strong markets, and what this means for investors
How the Federal Reserve's approach to communication and policy has transformed
Why traditional recession indicators failed in the recent cycle
The conversation features numerous "aha moments" where Paulsen reframes conventional market wisdom in enlightening new ways. His candid insights on what really drives markets and the limited role of policy makers challenge common assumptions about investing.The hosts also explore Paulsen's humble yet profound advice for investors: focus on not disrupting the core 90% of your portfolio while seeking opportunities for outperformance with the remaining 10%. This episode offers valuable perspective for both professional and retail investors trying to navigate today's complex market environment.
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In this episode, Jack and Matt dive deep into their conversation with Jason Buck about building truly robust investment portfolios that can withstand any market environment. Moving beyond the typical "stocks only go up" mentality, they explore critical concepts like:The real difference between offense and defense in portfolio constructionWhy treating your portfolio as savings rather than a get-rich-quick scheme is crucialUnderstanding real vs. nominal returns and why this distinction matters more than everThe dangers of U.S. market exceptionalism and what we can learn from other markets' strugglesHow to think about portfolio construction like building a championship sports teamThe critical concept of ergodicity and why averages can be deceivingUsing colorful analogies from the Dallas Cowboys' infamous Herschel Walker trade to Dennis Rodman's overlooked impact on the Chicago Bulls, this episode breaks down complex investment concepts into actionable insights. Perfect for investors wanting to move beyond basic diversification and build portfolios ready for whatever the future holds.
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In this deep-dive conversation, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler break down key insights from their interview with Dr. Ed Yardeni, one of Wall Street's most respected market strategists. The discussion explores how Yardeni's independent thinking and data-driven approach led him to correctly predict several major market developments in 2023-24, including the path of inflation and the absence of a widely-predicted recession.The hosts analyze Yardeni's unique framework for understanding market cycles, particularly how monetary, credit, and business cycles interact. They examine his explanation of why traditional recession indicators like yield curve inversions failed this time, and why focusing on labor market data proved more valuable. Yardeni's perspective on the Federal Reserve's evolution in handling financial crises offers crucial context for today's market environment.They discuss Yardeni's "Roaring 2020s" thesis, which predicts sustained economic growth driven by technological innovation and productivity gains. This optimistic outlook, first proposed at the start of the decade, has gained additional relevance with the emergence of AI and other transformative technologies.The conversation also delves into practical investment wisdom, including Yardeni's emphasis on quality dividend-growing stocks for long-term investors and the importance of maintaining healthy skepticism toward market consensus. Throughout the episode, Yardeni demonstrates how combining macroeconomic analysis with real-world observations leads to better investment decisions.Whether you're an experienced investor or just starting to learn about markets, this discussion offers valuable insights into how one of the industry's most successful strategists thinks about economics, market cycles, and long-term investing success.
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In this episode, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler discuss their fascinating interview with AQR founder Cliff Asness. They explore several key topics from their conversation, including:Cliff's humorous take on morning routines and why correlation doesn't equal causation when it comes to success habitsThe "Less Efficient Market Hypothesis" and why Cliff believes markets may be becoming less efficient over time, particularly evident in the dot-com bubble and 2019-2020 market eventsA thoughtful discussion on passive investing's impact on markets, including Cliff's perspective on what percentage of passive investing might be sustainableThe importance of getting comfortable with investment discomfort, especially when following factor strategies that can experience long periods of underperformanceAn insightful discussion about the evolution of factor investing and whether factors need intuitive explanations to be validCliff's key advice for average investors: look at your portfolio as little as possible to avoid making emotional decisionsThe episode showcases Cliff's unique ability to combine deep quantitative insights with humor and practical wisdom, making complex investment concepts accessible and entertaining. Don't miss this conversation with one of the most influential figures in quantitative investing.
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In this episode of "Two Quants and a Financial Planner," we break down some of Warren Buffett's most important investing lessons and life wisdom through a series of interview clips and annual meeting footage. We start by discussing whether Buffett truly deserves the "GOAT" (Greatest of All Time) title in investing, drawing some interesting parallels to NFL running backs like Barry Sanders and comparing different investing legends' careers.We analyze Buffett's key principles including:His famous "circle of competence" concept and how it both helped and potentially limited himThe evolution of his investing strategy from "cigar butt" value investing to quality businessesHis views on margin of safety and how it varies based on business qualityWhy he believes his biggest mistakes were errors of omission rather than commissionHis advice about investing in yourself as your greatest assetThe importance of having the right heroes while recognizing their imperfectionsWhat he would do if starting with $1 million todayWhy he advocates index investing for most peopleThroughout the discussion, we weave in our own perspectives and experiences, some NFL analogies (including some self-deprecating Jets fan moments), and even manage to work in references to Charles Bukowski poetry and Star Wars. We aim to make these timeless investing lessons both educational and entertaining.
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In this episode of "Two Quants and a Financial Planner," we explore key insights from our previous conversations with Larry Swedroe, one of investing's most evidence-based thinkers. Through a series of clips, we examine crucial investment principles including:Why all investment decisions should be grounded in evidence rather than narratives or speculationThe challenge of market forecasting and why most predictions failHow market valuations have become increasingly bifurcatedUnderstanding and surviving long periods of underperformanceThe importance of considering your unique risks when building a portfolioWhy many investors are too conservative with illiquid investmentsA data-driven perspective on the future of value investingWhether you're a DIY investor or work with an advisor, this episode offers valuable lessons on building resilient portfolios based on academic evidence rather than market narratives.
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We're back with our annual predictions episode, where we look back at our (surprisingly not terrible) 2024 market calls and make fresh predictions for 2025 (which will likely be very wrong). In this episode, we're embracing the humbling experience of market forecasting to prove to everyone (and ourselves) why market forecasting is a waste of time.You'll hear us:Review how Justin actually nailed the S&P 500 forecast for 2024 (we're still trying to figure out how)Break down why predicting markets is so ridiculously hard (but we keep doing it anyway)Share our thoughts on where inflation and Fed policy might be headedMake our predictions for 2025 - from S&P targets to potential correctionsDiscuss what might drive markets in 2025, including M&A activity, IPOs, and buybacksWe keep it real about our hits and misses, share some laughs about our forecasting methods (including Matt's Van Halen-inspired prediction system), and try to offer some useful insights along the way.If you enjoy discussions about markets that don't take themselves too seriously while still diving into the important stuff, this episode is for you. Join us as we continue our annual tradition of probably being wrong about everything - but having fun doing it!
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In this episode of "Two Quants and a Financial Planner," we explore one of investing's most debated topics: international diversification. Through clips from 10 different investing experts, we examine whether U.S. investors truly need international exposure in their portfolios.Key topics include:What actually constitutes "international exposure" in today's interconnected marketsWhy U.S. stocks have dominated for so long and whether this trend can continueThe role of currency exposure in international investingHow passive investing flows affect international marketsDifferent perspectives on optimal international allocation strategiesFeaturing insights from renowned investors and experts including Corey Hoffstein, Meb Faber, Dan Rasmussen, Larry Swedroe, Cullen Roche, Dan Villalon, Rick Ferri, Jason Buck, Mike Green, and Andy Constan, this episode offers a nuanced look at the complexities of global investing and helps viewers understand the various approaches to international diversification.Whether you're wondering if you should invest internationally or questioning your current allocation, this discussion provides valuable perspectives to help inform your investment decisions.
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Join Matt Zeigler and Jack Forehand as they break down some of the most insightful frameworks from our interviews with macro thinker Andy Constan. Drawing from multiple conversations with Andy, they explore:Andy's experience at Bridgewater Associates and their fascinating approach to systematic investingThe four pillars of macro analysis that help make sense of complex market environmentsA practical framework for evaluating market deleveraging eventsEssential lessons about personal portfolio management and the importance of having clear financial goalsThe realities of working in the financial industry and managing concentrated stock positionsAndy's ability to break down complex topics into simple, actionable frameworks has made him one of the most valuable voices in macro investing. Whether you're a professional investor or managing your personal portfolio, this episode offers important insights into how to think about markets and risk in a systematic way.
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We ask one question at the end of each of our episodes:Based on your experience in markets, if you could teach one lesson to your average investor, what would it be? In this episode, we discuss our favorite answers from our guests in 2024. Featuring insights from:Jim Paulsen on understanding your true impact as an investorCliff Asness on the importance of looking at your portfolio less frequentlyAswath Damodaran on preserving and growing wealth vs. chasing returnsJared Dillian on avoiding catastrophic lossesIan Cassel on the value of doing your own workBob Elliott on the importance of humility Ed Yardeni on fading the consensusEric Crittenden on mastering the basics before pursuing complexityAndrew Beer on the power of long-term thinkingKris Sidial on balancing optimism with preparednessLearn why the fundamentals of investing often matter more than complex strategies, how to avoid common behavioral pitfalls, and why getting the basics right can put you ahead of 90% of investors. Whether you're a seasoned professional or just starting your investment journey, these practical insights will help you build a more resilient investment strategy.
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In this episode of Two Quants and a Financial Planner, we explore the timeless investing wisdom of Ben Carlson. We break down several crucial investing concepts, including why investors shouldn't blindly follow billionaires' market moves, the importance of finding an investment strategy you can stick with, and why the market rarely operates at extremes despite what headlines might suggest.We examine why even successful professionals can struggle with overconfidence in investing, the challenges of benchmarking against the S&P 500, and why persistence of outperformance is so difficult to achieve. Through the discussion, we highlight how Ben's straightforward approach to complex investing topics helps investors avoid common pitfalls and maintain realistic expectations.Key Topics:Why following billionaire investors can be misleadingThe importance of appropriate benchmarkingHow to handle periods of underperformanceWhy market extremes are rarer than we thinkThe challenge of overconfidence in investingFinding an investment strategy you can stick with
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In this episode, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler dive deep into one of the most debated topics in modern finance with special guest Dave Nadig. This episode explores how passive investing has transformed markets, featuring insights from leading experts including Mike Green, Aswath Damodaran, Rick Ferri, Rob Arnott, and Cliff Asness.Key discussions:Why active investing's poor performance led to passive's riseHow index fund flows might affect market dynamicsThe difference between stocks in and out of major indicesWhether passive investing could potentially destabilize marketsWhat this means for individual investorsWhether you're a market professional or retail investor, this conversation offers crucial insights into how passive investing is reshaping financial markets and what it means for your portfolio.Featured Guests' Clips:Aswath Damodaran on active management's track recordMike Green on passive investing mechanicsRick Ferri with the counterargumentRob Arnott on index inclusion effectsCem Karsan on why active may rise againCliff Asness offering a balanced perspective
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In this episode of Two Quants and a Financial Planner, Jack and Matt dive into some of the most controversial takes we've heard on Excess Returns in 2024. From Aswath Damodaran's spicy thoughts on the Berkshire annual meeting (spoiler: he's not a fan) to Cem Karsan's mind-bending perspective on options being the "dog" rather than the "tail," we're breaking down six of the hottest takes from 2024. We explore everything from Meb Faber challenging the sacred cow of dividend investing to groundbreaking research suggesting that maybe we don't need intuitive explanations for what works in the market. Plus, we bring in a special guest to help us mere mortals understand the complex world of options.As two self-proclaimed "non-controversial" guys, we try to find the nuance in these polarizing perspectives. Whether you're a quant, a value investor, or just someone interested in different ways of thinking about markets, there's something here for everyone. And yes, we even manage to work in references to everything from Little Rascals to My Fair Lady (Matt's brain works in mysterious ways).Join us for an episode that proves even "wildly controversial" Jack Forehand can stir things up once in a while! 😉
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