Afleveringen
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From June 4, 2016: This week, the Brookings Institution held an event on a new Brookings report on implementation of the Iran Deal:
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) adopted by Iran and the P5+1 partners in July 2015 was an effort not only to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons but also to avert a nuclear arms competition in the Middle East. But uncertainties surrounding the future of the Iran nuclear deal, including the question of what Iran will do when key JCPOA restrictions on its nuclear program expire after 15 years, could provide incentives for some of its neighbors to keep their nuclear options open.
In their Brookings Arms Control and Non-Proliferation Series monograph, âThe Iran Nuclear Deal: Prelude to Proliferation in the Middle East?,â Robert Einhorn and Richard Nephew assess the current status of the JCPOA and explore the likelihood that, in the wake of the agreement, regional countries will pursue their own nuclear weapons programs or at least latent nuclear weapons capabilities. Drawing on interviews with senior government officials and non-government experts from the region, they focus in depth on the possible motivations and capabilities of Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates for pursuing nuclear weapons. The monograph also offers recommendations for policies to reinforce the JCPOA and reduce the likelihood that countries of the region will seek nuclear weapons.
On May 31, the Brookings Arms Control and Non-Proliferation Initiative hosted a panel to discuss the impact of the JCPOA on prospects for nuclear proliferation in the Middle East. Brookings Senior Fellow and Deputy Director of Foreign Policy Suzanne Maloney served as moderator. Panelists included H.E. Yousef Al Otaiba, ambassador of the United Arab Emirates to the United States; Derek Chollet, counselor and senior advisor for security and defense policy at the German Marshall Fund; Brookings Senior Fellow Robert Einhorn; and Brookings Nonresident Senior Fellow Richard Nephew.
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From April 16, 2020: On this episode of Lawfare's Arbiters of Truth series on disinformation, Evelyn Douek and Quinta Jurecic spoke with Camille François, the Chief Innovation Officer at Graphika, where she works to identify and mitigate disinformation and misinformation online. On April 15, Graphika released a report on an Iranian influence operation focused on COVID-19, an operation blaming the United States for supposedly creating the virus and praising Chinaâs response to the pandemic. Camille discussed what Graphika found and how this campaign compares to similar operations in the pastâlike another campaign from Ghana that Graphika helped uncover, which was linked to Russia and posted content aimed at black Americans. And they discussed the âABC frameworkâ that Camille has developed to understand disinformation campaigns.
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Zijn er afleveringen die ontbreken?
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This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Kevin Frazier, Roger Parloff, and Molly Roberts to talk through some of the weekâs big news in AI, including:
âCitizen Cainât.â When the NAACP sued Elon Muskâs xAI under the Clean Air Actâalleging that the company built dozens of gas-fired turbines to power a data center in Mississippi without relevant air permits and exposing nearby, predominantly Black communities to harmful pollutionâthe Justice Department opted to do something it has never done before: it intervened in a citizen suit against a private company in order to kill it. DOJâs motion offers two theories: first, that shutting down the turbines would threaten national security because the military relies on xAIâs Grok Gov model (including in relation to the Iran war) to secure the nation, and second, that the Constitutionâs vesting of executive power in the president means private citizens cannot enforce federal law over the executiveâs objection. How strong are these arguments? And what would it mean for environmental and other citizen-enforcement suits if DOJ were to prevail?âGrok the Vote.â We may be living through the first true âAI elections.â In Manhattanâs NY-12 Democratic primary, more than $40 million in AI-industry and AI-safety money turned a little-known assemblyman, Alex Bores, into something of a national referendum on whether voters care about AI regulation and AI safetyâthough Bores ultimately lost to Micah Lasher this week. Meanwhile, overseas in Malaysia, parties are using chatbots and other AI-driven technologies to reach out to voters in new and novel ways. And just this week in Washington, a new study has concluded that frontier AI is perhaps more persuasive than ever, but also may not be as politically neutral as some suspect or one might hope. What does this all mean for democratic politics when both money and the messaging involved in our politics are increasingly shaped by AI?âKill, Kill Switch, Kill, Kill!â The government's frontier-AI "kill switch" is now ready to have its first day in court. If you recall, a few weeks ago, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Industry and Security sent Anthropic an "Is Informed" letter ordering it to suspend all access to its Fable 5 and Mythos 5 models for any foreign nationals, including its own employees. This ultimately led Anthropic to pull access to those models for everyone within hours. But this past Monday, June 22, a technology startup called Legion LegalTech filed a lawsuit against the U.S. government alleging that it has acted in a way that is unlawful and raises a number of statutory and constitutional concerns. How strong is the legal challenge, and what does it tell us about whether courtsârather than the executiveâwill end up defining the government's power to switch a frontier model on and off?In object lessons, Molly sticks to the script for this weekâs episode with her call-out of Erik Nitscheâs âAtoms for Peaceâ poster series for General Dynamics. Also inspired by this weekâs theme, Kevin dives into some âlight summer readingâ about technology, globalization, and the law with âRules for a Flat World,â by Gillian Hadfield. Roger, similarly, is âunwindingâ with âThe Winter Warriors,â by Olivier Norek, a novel about the lesser-known David vs. Goliath story of Finland taking on the Soviet Union in 1939. And Scott says enough already! Heâs headed on vacation next week, and so is Rational Security. Weâll be back with a new episode and a rejuvenated Scott on July 9.
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Alan Rozenshtein, Research Director at Lawfare, speaks with Robert Wrightâauthor of "Nonzero," "The Moral Animal," "The Evolution of God," and "Why Buddhism Is True," and the writer behind the NonZero Newsletter and podcastâabout his new book, "The God Test: Artificial Intelligence and Our Coming Cosmic Reckoning," which argues that AI is an evolutionary threshold on the scale of the entire history of life, that we are collectively failing to grasp its magnitude, and that rising to the challenge will require both new forms of international governance and an expansion of human moral and cognitive perspective.
The conversation covers the multiple meanings of the book's title and what it means to view AI from a "cosmic" perspective; whether the public is finally starting to "feel the AGI" and where skepticism about AI's capabilities now comes from; how large language models are trained and Wright's claim that we have built "machines that create machines that think"; whether these systems genuinely understand, what Searle's Chinese Room and Nagel's "what is it like to be a bat?" have to do with it, and the open question of AI moral patienthood; the two families of AI riskâbad actors empowered by AI versus AI itself going rogueâand why the near-term disruption to jobs, relationships, and security may matter most; the "But China!" argument against AI regulation, China hawkishness, and why Wright thinks racing toward superintelligence is dangerously destabilizing; the case for "global governance" over "world government" and the perils of concentrating AI power at home; and why a book about AI and geopolitics closes with a call for mindfulness, cognitive empathy, and transcending the psychology of tribalism.
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Lawfare Editor in Chief Benjamin Wittes and Senior Editor Michael Feinberg discuss the methods and techniques the FBI used to investigate Donald Trump as part of the Arctic Frost investigation, and whether critiques of the FBIâs steps hold up.
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Brandon DeBot and Kelsey Merrick, of NYUâs Tax Law Center, speak to Senior Editor Roger Parloff about Attorney General Todd Blancheâs purported waiver of President Trumpâs past tax liabilities on May 19, as part of a settlement of Trumpâs $10 billion suit against the IRS.
DeBot and Merrick discuss whether those who negotiated the deal might face criminal liability under 26 USC § 7217 or § 7212, and what steps Congress should take to investigate how the waiver came about and to stop it from taking effect.
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In a live conversation on YouTube, Lawfare Executive Editor Natalie Orpett sat down with Senior Editors Eric Columbus, Molly Roberts, and Roger Parloff to discuss the D.C. Circuit rehearing the case over Judge Boasbergâs criminal contempt inquiry into the Justice Department in sending Venezuelans to CECOT, a federal judge squashing grand jury subpoenas to top Minnesota political officials, updates in the Kennedy Center litigation, and more.
You can find information on legal challenges to Trump administration actions here. And check out Lawfareâs new homepage on the litigation, new Bluesky account, and new WITOAD merch.
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On todayâs episode, Lawfare Managing Editor Tyler McBrien sits down with Jasper Craven, a freelance reporter covering the military and veteransâ issues, to discuss his new book, âGod Forgives, Brothers Don't: The Long March of Military Education and the Making of American Manhood.â They speak about why the son of a peace activist embarked on this project, how military education helps explain our current political moment, and so much more.
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From December 9, 2024: Kevin Xu, founder of Interconnected Capital and author of the Interconnected newsletter, joins Kevin Frazier, Senior Research Fellow in the Constitutional Studies Program at the University of Texas at Austin and a Tarbell Fellow at Lawfare, to analyze Chinaâs AI ambitions, its current AI capacities, and the likely effect of updated export controls on the nationâs AI efforts. The two pay particular attention to the different AI development strategies being deployed by the U.S. and China and how those differences reflect the AI priorities of the respective nations.
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From February 21, 2025: Before January, most Americans had probably never heard of the Bureau of the Fiscal Service (BFS), a Treasury Department agency that distributes payments from the federal government. But over the last month, this corner of government has appeared again and again in the headlines, as aides working with Elon Muskâs quasi-governmental DOGE initiative successfully gained access to BFSâs payment systems. After a flurry of litigation, a temporary restraining order now bars these aides from accessing dataâbut the crisis is not over. Itâs still not clear precisely what happened within BFS or what access political actors within the administration might gain in the future, and DOGE continues to access similarly sensitive systems in other agencies, such as the Social Security Administration and the Internal Revenue Service.
To understand whatâs happening, Senior Editor Quinta Jurecic spoke with Wendy Edelberg, director of the Hamilton Project and senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, and Jacob Leibenluft, who served in the Treasury Department and the Office of Management and Budget under the Biden administration. Why is it so alarming to have political appointees accessing BFS systems? What does this tell us about the administrationâs political goals? And what manner of crises could result from this kind of meddling?
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From May 31, 2022: A few weeks ago, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence released the latest FISA transparency data. It was notable in at least two major respects: the continued decline of traditional Title I FISA applicationsâthat is, warrants for individual surveillanceâand separately, the rather large number of U.S. persons who had been searched under so-called 702 surveillance.
To discuss the news, the data and what it all means, Benjamin Wittes sat down on Lawfare Live with Carrie Cordero of the Center for a New American Security and Adam Klein of the Strauss Center at the University of Texas. They talked about the 702 number. Is it really big, or does it just seem big? They talked about what's causing the decline in traditional FISA, about whether reforms in the wake of the Carter Page debacle have gone too far, and they talked about where it is all going from here.
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This week, Scott sat down with cohost emeritus and Lawfare Research Director Alan Rozenshtein, Lawfare Managing Editor Tyler McBrien, Lawfare Public Service Fellow Julia Curlee, and Lawfare Contributing Editor and Vice President of Research, Security and Defense at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs Ariane Tabatabai, to talk through the weekâs big national security news stories, including:
âFission Accomplished.â After nearly four months of war, the United States and Iran have reached a deal to end the conflictâwith Trump declaring it âcompleteâ and authorizing the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz ahead of a formal signing ceremony set for June 19 in Switzerland. But the agreement leaves enormous questions unresolved, from the fate of Iranâs enriched uranium to sanctions relief to whether the ceasefire extends to Israelâs campaign in Lebanon. Is this the durable peace Trump claims, or a fragile pause papering over the hardest issues?âModel Misbehavior.â Days after Anthropic publicly released its powerful new Claude Fable 5 model, the Commerce Department imposed export controls barring any foreign nationalâinside or outside the U.S.âfrom accessing it, forcing the company to disable the model worldwide. The administration says Anthropic recklessly refused to fix a dangerous jailbreak; Anthropic says it was a narrow, non-serious vulnerability and the order is a misunderstanding. What does this episode tell us about the governmentâs expanding use of export controls on AIâand its increasingly adversarial relationship with one of the countryâs leading labs?âBad Vibrations.â In one of her final acts as Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard rescinded two Biden-era intelligence assessments that had cast doubt on whether a foreign adversary was behind âHavana Syndrome,â the mysterious ailments afflicting U.S. spies and diplomats. Gabbardâs office says the prior assessments cherry-picked intelligence to support a predetermined conclusion; critics worry about a politically motivated rewrite of analytic findings on the way out the door. What should we make of this last-minute reversal, and what does it mean for the future of the Havana syndrome debateâand Gabbardâs legacy as DNI?In object lessons, Tyler remains steadfast in his mission to ensure that no one ever runs out of podcasts, this week plugging A Whole Other Country, a discovery from Tribeca Festival Audio. Alan embraces peak dad-tech with his bbq upgradeâa new, after-market temperature controller. Scott savors a delightfully spicy Supreme Court dust-up in FS Credit Opportunities Corp. v. Saba Capital Master Fund, Ltd. And Julia celebrates her mug, an appropriate mainstay during her post-White-House-PDB âdeep state therapy hour.â
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Lawfare Senior Editor Michael Feinberg sits down with Devlin Barrett, a journalist and author of the new book, âThe Department of Revenge: How Trump Took Control of American Justice,â to talk about the seismic changes in personnel and policy which have shaken the Justice Department over the past 18 months.
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Ukraine Fellow Anastasia Lapatina sits down with Chris Powers, the Brussels correspondent at the Kyiv Independent, to discuss the recent progress in Ukraine's bid to join the European Union and the many political dramas that surround that process both in Kyiv and in Europe.
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Brendan Ballou, founder and CEO of the Public Integrity Project, speaks with Senior Editor Roger Parloff about his groupâs case, Douglas v. National Parks Services, seeking to enjoin the UFC cage-fighting event on the White House South Lawn. Ballou alleges that the event is a âvolcano of corruption,â the first for-profit sports event ever staged at the White House, and a turning point in American history.
Ballou explains what laws and regulations he believes are being violated, and he addresses the governmentâs claims that he waited too long to bring the case and that his plaintiffs donât have standing. He also discusses what can be done to ward off commercialization of national monuments in the future.
Note: This conversation was recorded on Thursday, June 11. In the early afternoon on Friday, June 12, Judge Amit Mehta denied the temporary restraining order that the Public Integrity Project was seeking to stop the UFC match at the White House on June 14. Judge Mehta ruled mainly on the grounds that the plaintiffs were unlikely to be able to show that they had standing.
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In a live conversation on YouTube, Lawfare Senior Editor Eric Columbus sat down with Lawfare Senior Editors Anna Bower and Roger Parloff to discuss litigation over President Trumpâs name on the Kennedy Center, a judge denying a TRO in the lawsuit challenging the White House UFC fight, the status of the âAnti-Weaponization Fund,â and more.
You can find information on legal challenges to Trump administration actions here. And check out Lawfareâs new homepage on the litigation, new Bluesky account, and new WITOAD merch.
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From December 3, 2024: Lawfare Foreign Policy Editor and Georgetown professor Daniel Byman sits down with Charles Lister, Director of Syria and Countering Terrorism & Extremism Programs at the Middle East Institute for an update on the Syrian opposition taking Aleppo and the prospects for the civil war going forward. They discuss the status of the Syrian conflict; the nature of the key group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham; why conflict happened now; and what might happen going forward.
You can watch a video version of their conversation here.
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From November 1, 2024: Lawfare Senior Editor Anna Bower and Editor-in-Chief Benjamin Wittes sit down with Senior Editor Roger Parloff to discuss David Clements, who has led religiously inspired "trainings" across the U.S. teaching citizens how to stop local election officials from certifying elections the trainees consider fraudulent. Anna describes a training she attended, and Ben discusses, and plays clips from, his two-hour interview with Clements.
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This week, Scott was joined by his Lawfare colleagues Benjamin Wittes, Michael Feinberg, and Molly Roberts to talk through the weekâs big news in national security, including:
âBlanche Check.â DOJ may soon have a new permanent leader, as President Trump has now formally nominated Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche to the role permanently. But to secure Trumpâs support, Blanche has indulged some of Trumpâs most concerning instincts, as evidenced by the attempt to establish an anti-weaponization fund for Trump allies and renewed indictments of figures like former FBI Director James Comey. Meanwhile, DOJ has seen scandal after scandal during Blancheâs tenure over the rapidly declining quality and credibility of its work, exemplified most recently by evidence of grand jury tampering, arguably, in the Broadview Six prosecutions. What should we expect of DOJ under a confirmed Blanche? And how enduring will some of the harm that may result be for the department?âTinker, Tailor, Realtor, Spy.â President Trumpâs decision to dual-hat Federal Housing Finance Agency director Bill Pulteâa man with no national security experience, who is best known for using his role at the FHFA to facilitate some of Trumpâs most transparent attacks on perceived political enemiesâas Acting Director of National Intelligence has triggered strong reactions across the political spectrum. This includes a threat by congressional Democrats to kill renewal of Section 702 surveillance authorities if Pulte remains in the acting position. But Trump has thus far refused to back down. What does Pulteâs appointmentâand the potential expiration of Section 702âmean for national security?âPratt Falls.â The open primary in the Los Angeles mayorâs race is over, and Trump-endorsed candidate Spencer Pratt finished just outside the final two who will proceed into the general election. But U.S. Attorney Bill Essayli, a Trump loyalist, has suggested that voter fraud investigations are ongoing, leading some other Republican officials and leaders to call the results into question. What should we make of these unsubstantiated allegations? And are they a preview of what Republicans have planned for 2026?In object lessons, Mike is kraken himself up over his plans to create the ultimate toy for his child. Ben is announcing the beta release of RAGtime, the tool that he (and Claude) developed to comb through large, messy datasets. Scott is heating things up in his backyard with his new Gozney pizza oven. And Molly is quacking up about her mallard, acquired from (the now unfortunately closed) Archipelago in Maine.
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For todayâs episode, Lawfare Senior Editor Scott R. Anderson sits down with Joel Braunold, the Managing Director of the Center Project, for the latest in their regular series on recent developments in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and related issues.
Together, they dig into recent escalations between Israel and Lebanon and their bearing on the broader Iran conflict, including tensions between President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the impact on efforts at regional integration, and how it might serve as a spoiler for broader efforts to negotiate the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
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