Afleveringen
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Meb Faber, chief executive and chief investment officer at Cambria Investments, says that the cheap global stock markets are up 15 percent already this year, where the United States has been flat — "if you heard about geo-politics, you'd assume the opposite" — and he says that investors should be moving away from domestic issues to buy more global companies. Faber promises — and delivers — "a warning, an idea, a curiosity and something you've never heard of before" in today's Big Interview, and also gives his take on how to approach current events, asset allocation, cryptocurrencies and more. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, also goes global on this show, looking to China internet stocks — one of those booming global markets — vettafi.com with his ETF of the Week. Plus Stash Graham, managing director at Graham Capital Wealth Management, talks stock investing in the Market Call.
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Adam Hetts, global head of multi-asset at Janus Henderson Investors, says the stock market entered the year in "goldilocks mode," at all-time highs and with positive conditions, but the late-cycle economy is facing policy drag and "a lot of those risks have teeth," which is bringing recession back into the conversation. Hetts adds that with a market near record levels, it makes the current rally feel fragile, as if it's easier to move down than keep climbing, and he says there may be a correction as the market re-assesses its current standing, which could create new buying opportunities. Allison Hadley discusses a Howdy.com survey showing that many Americans would leave their job if it weren’t for the need for their current health insurance coverage. Plus, Chuck answers a listener's question about fairness in setting up gift and legacy accounts for grandchildren, and Jay Woods, chief global strategist at Freedom Capital Markets, talks stocks in the Market Call.
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Zijn er afleveringen die ontbreken?
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Eric Stein, head of investments and chief investment officer for fixed income at Voya Investment Management, says that the "sequencing of policies" is impacting the market now, noting that if the Trump Administration had done supply-side reforms and de-regulation first, it would boost the market, but instead the first moves have been tariffs, which has made the market outlook tougher. Still, he's expecting a modestly positive year, buoyed in part by the market's "self-correcting mechanism" that will react to tariff policy and impact how and how long those policies stay in place. Veteran technical analyst Martin Pring of Pring Research and the Intermarket Review says that the primary trend he's seeing in the market remains bullish, and the signs that we are nearing a market top are balanced by indicators showing there's more room to run. David Callaway, founder of Callaway Climate Insights, discusses how energy stocks could be set up for a fall; they have boomed as an AI-adjacent play because artificial intelligence requires high levels of power, but got hammered when the market was disappointed in the results at companies like Nvidia. Plus Andrew Graham of Jackson Square Capital talks stock investing in the Market Call.
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Greg Daco, chief economist at EY, says the economic numbers are strong, but the high level of uncertainty has it nearing a tipping point and making recession more likely. He sees the potential for consumer issues and a recession risking, and says there is a real -- but modest -- chance of stagflation putting the Federal Reserve in a real policy bind. Sarah Wolfe, senior economist and strategist for thematic and macro investing at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, talks about what other economists are thinking, as she highlights the March Economic Policy Survey, released today by the National Association for Business Economics. David Trainer of New Constructs revisits Carvana, a stock which has defied gravity for over a year; he says it can't shake its status as a zombie stock headed for a massive decline. John Barr, portfolio manager for the Needham Funds, discusses his aggressive growth strategy.
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Finance professor Meir Statman, author of "A Wealth of Well-Being: A Holistic Approach to Behavioral Finance," says the headlines and geopolitical risks that have investors and consumers scrambling for a plan of action are not that different from past times, and that taking a deep breath and calming down will be a lot better than altering financial plans or stocking up and filling "that refrigerator you keep in the garage." Statman acknowledges that inflation is scary — particularly because it removes a measure of certainty from pricing — but says that acting scared has never served investors and consumers well. In The NAVigator, John Cole Scott, chief investment officer at Closed-End Fund Advisors, is back and answering more listener questions, this time on business-development companies, highlighting how they are different from closed-end funds but should be included with closed-end funds for portfolio-construction purposes. In the Market Call, Daniel Dusina, director of investments at Blue Chip Partners talks about how he finds "underappreciated quality companies."
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Veteran personal finance journalist John Waggoner stops by to answer the questions that experts are getting at the grocery store, the doctor's office or anywhere someone can inquire about whether current events — and fears over the potential future of tariffs, Social Security, Medicare and more — need to be addressed by financial moves now. Waggoner notes that people who crave some certainty and comfort can make moves — like considering annuities to bolster retirement income — but he suggested keeping changes to a minimum and avoiding knee-jerk reactions. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, looks at bitcoin mining — and compares the investment allocation possibilities of the crypto world versus gold and gold miners — with his pick for "ETF of the Week." Will Rhind, chief executive officer at GraniteShares talks about disruptive stocks — his firm runs the Nasdaq Select Disruptors ETF — and business-development companies in the Market Call.
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Crit Thomas, global market strategist at Touchstone Investments, says that he entered the year cautious given political uncertainty and the impact of tariffs and other new policies, and that the market has moved from high levels of optimism more towards his level of concern. He's taking a wait-and-see approach to international investing now, and he's expecting higher volatility with less progress while the market sorts it out. Where the market still expects double-digit earnings growth — a key driver if returns are to achieve that level — Thomas sees more muted growth and a possible correction as forecasts are missed, leading to a year in which the market's best outcome would be high single-digit returns. Allison Hadley discusses a BadCredit.Org survey which showed that Americans say that inflation has made the cost of friendship significantly higher; more than one third of Americans say they are isolating due to cost of living. In the Market Call, Bryan Armour, director of passive strategies research at Morningstar, talks about ETFs and where active and passive strategies offer potential advantages.
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Veteran technical analyst Adam Grimes of MarketLife says that the market "just doesn't look right or feel right" to keep rolling along. It's not the kind of market that can support a big move upward, and is more likely to spend the year range-bound, in a protracted "chop and flop." That doesn't mean Grimes is down on the market, because he says this could be "a healthy psychological reset;" as that reset happens, Grimes said he would cut back on active and aggressive moves and stay patient looking for declines that will represent buying opportunities. Susan Fahy, chief digital officer at VantageScore, discusses the firm's CreditGauge measure, which shows credit card balances and consumer delinquencies on the rise, although at modest levels; overall indebtedness declined, driven primarily by consumers paying down existing mortgage debt and not buying new homes. Plus,small-and mid-cap portfolio manager Lance Cannon of Hood River Capital Management returns to the Market Call, and Chuck answers a listener's question about building the conservative side of an asset allocation while worrying about sequence-of-return risk.
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Bill Stone, chief investment officer at Glenview Trust, says that the stock market has priced in so much good news that it makes him want to be more cautious, looking into headline risks for potential value opportunities. Stone notes that the stock market has had previous periods with three strongly positive, consecutive years — and it could complete that process again this year — but it makes him nervous that the market could adjust and re-set. That's not pushing him out of stocks, but has muted his expectations. Charles Rotblut, editor at AAII Journal, discusses the organization's investor-sentiment survey, which shows that nervousness is on the rise, but so is bullish sentiment. Kyle Guske, investment analyst at New Constructs looks at large-cap value funds and finds an attractive pick this week — rather than looking for the standard Danger Zone trouble spot — noting that even in a category that is doing well, top potential performers stand out. Plus, author Ross White discusses his recent book, "The Tree That Bends: How a Flexible Mind Can Help You Thrive."
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Legendary value manager Bill Nygren, chief investment officer at Harris Oakmark and co-manager of the Oakmark Fund, says "it's a pretty good time for investors, especially those who want to diversify away from the S&P 500 megacap technology risk," but he notes that investors who stick with the biggest stocks will find performance increasingly volatile and homogenous because the growth of the Magnificent Seven stocks has changed the way "large cap" gets defined, cutting the number of stocks that qualify in half over just a few years. "If you're a large-cap growth manager, you're either buying less growth, more mid-cap or you are accepting the fact that your portfolio isn't going to have much active share." Also on the show, Richard Stone, chief executive officer for The Association of Investment Companies discusses the similarities and differences in the closed-end fund industry between the U.S. and England, noting that activist investors have struggled to gain traction and acceptance in British boardroom battles. Plus Chuck discusses a recent conversation with his wife about financial priorities, and how they had very different outlooks on what they would spend money on in living a life where longevity is not guaranteed.
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Tom Stringfellow, chief investment strategist at Argent Trust, said on Money Life last May that the market was having "Maalox moments," but the worries and concerns now make it a "Whac-a-Mole market." Despite that, he says the current conditions represent a return to normalcy, a new standard in which valuations may be permanently higher and stock prices keep rising so long as there is growth. As a result, his investment outlook is heavily centered on domestic stocks, which he thinks can deliver double-digit gains in 2025 for the third consecutive year. For his "ETF of the Week," Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, delves into the private credit market, something a growing number of investment analysts have been pushing but which few funds actually tackle. In the Market Call, Elliott Gue, editor of the Energy & Income Advisor, talks about income plays worth making now.
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Michael Kelly, portfolio manager and global head of multi-asset for PineBridge Investments, says the market is like Star Trek, "going into a world where no one's been before," seeing new technologies like artificial intelligence become dominant, observing changes in geo-political lines and watching profits continue a trend of being high but going higher as the United States keeps getting stronger relative to the rest of the world. As a result, so long as growth continues, "the markets will come through ... so keep the seatbelt on and enjoy the ride." Author Tim Falconer discusses his new book, “Windfall: Viola MacMillan and Her Notorious Mining Scandal," reviving a tale of stock fraud from the 1960s that feels like a precursor to illegal actions seen in the markets today. Plus Jennifer White discusses J.D. Power research showing what banking and savings consumers are doing trying to get a handle on — and goose the financial performance of — accounts that seem stuck in neutral.
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Jeff Rosenkranz fixed income portfolio manager at Shelton Capital Management — manager of the Shelton Tactical Credit Fund — says that what investors are facing more than sticky inflation and interest rates is sticky uncertainty. That doubt has increased volatility, especially in individual companies, industries and sectors as proposed tariffs play out, but that turbulence represents new opportunities for credit buyers, especially in intermediate term corporate and high-yield bonds. David Trainer of New Constructs puts Spotify back in the Danger Zone, noting that a recent pop in the company's stock price has inflated to the point where valuations reflect revenues so unrealistic that a 50 percent haircut in the stock would be considered mild. Plus, Ted Rossman discusses a Bankrate.com study which shows that more than 80 percent of Americans spend money on at least one of six common financial vices (alcohol, lottery tickets, casino games, tobacco/cigarettes/e-cigarettes, sports betting, and marijuana/recreational cannabis), and Scott Davies, chief investment officer at CDAM, talks small-cap stocks in the Market Call.
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Jim Welsh, author of “Macro Tides” and the “Weekly Technical Review,” says the technical signals that have been evident since November — with the market making new highs while fewer stocks are advancing — are "a warning sign should a reason to sell appear, and I think we're going to get one of those." Welsh thinks that tariffs and the new administration's determination to use them will likely be that trigger; while he expects the market to make one more high in the short-term, he says that if tariffs have a harmful impact, the market is setting up a 10 to 15 percent pullback in the market later this year. Julia Hermann, global market strategist at New York Life Investments thinks the economy is strong enough to overcome all but an exogenous shock — something at the more severe end of Welsh's spectrum — without a recession, although her outlook remains for "a very bumpy market environment." Jim Baker, president of the Kayne Anderson Energy Infrastructure Fund, says that the energy infrastructure space — which was a huge winner in 2024, with midstream companies up an average of 50 percent — is poised for double-digit gains over the next three to five years, fueled by the power demands of artificial intelligence, data centers and other applications. Plus,Tom Plumb, manager of the Plumb Balanced and Plumb Equity funds, brings his growth-oriented approach to the Market Call.
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Whitney Tilson, editor at Stansberry Research, says that while there are reasons to be nervous, the market remains near record-high levels and is not showing signs that it is over-inflated and ready to burst. Tilson notes that fundamentals are strong and the U.S. has the best-performing economy in the world, so investors have correctly priced stocks at rich levels; while that makes it harder for Tilson — a value investor — to find great companies that the market has knocked down or mispriced, it doesn't make the market scary or mean that a big downturn is building. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, pursues a big yield in an unusual place — the high-flyers of the NASDAQ — with his ETF of the Week, and Cullen Roche, chief investment officer for the Discipline Funds, talks about exchange-traded funds for the long haul in the Market Call.
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Tim Urbanowicz, chief investment strategist for the Innovator ETFs, says that the stock market can keep running for as long as investor sentiment remains strong, but he notes that those emotions have been at such high level that there's not much room for a setback — which could be caused by tariffs, inflation and more — without cratering the market. As a result, he thinks investors need to take advantage of current conditions — even if they are nervous — but diligent about changes in the market. Author Ryan Matt Reynolds discusses his current book, "Undoing Urgency: Reclaim Your Time for the Things that Matter Most," and Jerry Sneed, senior wealth advisor at Procyon Partners, makes his debut in the Market Call talking about stock-picking and building a portfolio amid a strong market that's facing storm clouds.
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Zach Jonson, senior portfolio manager at Stack Financial Management, says current valuations "really only fall in line with 1929 and 1999, so we see substantial downside risk" to the Standard & Poor's 500, but investors can avoid "historic ber market losses" in the mega-cap stocks that have lead the market for the last two years by rotating toward the value and lagging plays. He recommends equal-weight index plays rather than traditional cap-weighted plays, and being patient with the stocks that were unloved, which will have to overcome the shifting momentum of mega caps as the market cycle changes. His sentiments about a broadening market were seconded by Patrick O’Hare, chief market analyst at Briefing.com, who says that what's coming will be more of a stock-picker's market where investors are paid for being thoughtful and discerning amid a market that's likely to be stuck in a tight range as leadership changes and amid geopolitical uncertainty. Also on the show, Chuck Bell of Consumer Reports discusses how the potential end of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau will impact consumers, and Chip Lupo discusses a WalletHub study showing that Americans collectively will spend a record $14.2 billion on Valentine’s Day gifts, with the average lovebird shelling out $186 this year.
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Economist Howard Yaruss, a professor at New York University and the author of "Understandable Economics," talks about how tariffs work and why increasing the levies now could lead to stagflation — higher prices with a worse economy — depending on how consumers and the Federal Reserve react. Yaruss isn't predicting recession yet, but he does see the economy becoming more sluggish as businesses deal with uncertainty around tariffs. David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs, has a surprising pick — a Magnificent Seven stock — for The Danger Zone, and Brian Frank, manager of the Frank Value Fund talks absolute-value investing in The Market Call. Plus, Chuck has a heartfelt message near the end of the show that long-time listeners -- and newcomers too -- deserve to hear.
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Lauren Saidel-Baker, economist at ITR Economics, says the "green shoots have been forming" among leading economic indicators, showing that growth is ahead for the economy, along with a normalization as the last ripples of the Covid-19 economy are finally playing out. She expects the Federal Reserve to struggle or fail in its efforts to hit a 2 percent inflation target and thinks consumers should get used to higher prices, but even if tariffs add to upward pressure she thinks the economy can avoid a recession. Christian Munafo, chief investment officer at Liberty Street Advisors — manager of the Private Shares Fund — talks about late-stage venture opportunities in artificial intelligence and the hunt for the next unicorn in the overheated AI space. Martin Leclerc, chief investment officer at Barrack Yard Advisors talks stocks in the Market Call, and Chuck discusses his sure bet for the Super Bowl, namely that companies which recently went public that advertise on the broadcast are headed for trouble.
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Thomas Winmill, manager of the Midas Fund, discusses how uncertainties over tariffs, trade wars and geo-politics have help boost gold prices by more than 40 percent in the last year — and mining-company stocks by even more — and yet the current level of concern is going to help precious metals go even higher from here. He explains why the higher prices are a particular boon for the miners, making them the market sector he thinks has the most potential moving forward. Dan Brown, director of consumer product management at KeyBank talks about the firm's recent research which showed that Americans have levels of financial stress which may not be fully warranted, contradicting other studies — including ones discussed recently on the show — by showing that 45 percent of respondents are confident they could manage a $2,000 unexpected expense. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, looks to the newest bond offering from the oldest mutual fund company — one of its first ventures into running exchange-traded funds — as his ETF of the Week. Plus, in the Market Call, Wasif Latif, president/chief investment officer at Sarmaya Partners — manager of the new Sarmaya Thematic ETF — talks about the concepts and ideas that he thinks will move the market next.
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